BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

BHP’s biggest question is its $US6.6b payout

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 23 : 21-Jan-16

Iron ore was the only one of BHP Billiton’s "four pillars" to post an increase in production during the six months to December 2015. The resources giant expects to achieve its 2015-16 production guidance for coal, copper and petroleum, although iron ore output is likely to be lower than forecast as a result of the Samarco disaster in Brazil. Meanwhile, BHP’s progressive dividend policy is expected to come under scrutiny again, and UBS forecasts that its interim dividend will be slashed by 50 per cent to $A0.31 per share.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Ratings agency predicts weaker bank profit growth in 2016

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 20-Jan-16

Fitch Ratings warns that Australian banks are likely to face lower growth in earnings in 2016, citing factors such as a rise in bad loans, an increase in the cost of funding and stronger competition in the sector. However, the ratings agency notes that capital raisings in 2015 mean the four major banks are well-placed to handle any increase in bad loans.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rio eases off its iron ore expansion

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 20-Jan-16

Rio Tinto expects to produce 350 million tonnes of iron ore in Western Australia and Canada in 2016, which is slightly below market forecasts of 355 million tonnes. Total production was 327 million tonnes in 2015, with the Pilbara region accounting for 310 million tonnes. However, Rio had initially flagged Pilbara output of 330 million tonnes. The latest guidance suggests that Rio Tinto may not achieve its Pilbara production target of 335 million tonnes in 2016.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, IRON ORE COMPANY OF CANADA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

APN raises guidance 56pc as funds forge ahead

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 19-Jan-16

APN Property Group has revised its full-year earnings guidance. The Australian-listed real estate investment fund stated on 18 January 2016 that its operating earnings for the year would be between $A0.032 and $A0.035 per share, compared with a prediction of earnings of $A0.02 and $A0.023 per share, made at the AGM in November 2015.

CORPORATES
APN PROPERTY GROUP LIMITED – ASX APD, INDUSTRIA REIT FUND – ASX IDR, GENERATION HEALTHCARE REIT – ASX GHC, GROCON PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA

More oil, gas write-downs set to follow BHP’s lead

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 18-Jan-16

The downturn in the crude oil price prompted a number of Australian-listed energy groups to announce write-downs in 2015. The price of Brent crude oil closed at $US28.94 per barrel on 15 January 2016, coinciding with BHP Billiton’s announcement that its 2015-16 interim results are likely to include a $US7.2bn impairment charge on its oil and gas assets. Mark Busuttil of JP Morgan has forecast that Santos could announce a pre-tax write-off of about $A2bn.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX DLS, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, BG GROUP PLC, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED

Is 2016 the year of media merger frenzy?

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 12-Jan-16

Scrapping the "reach rule" and the "two-out-of three rule" is likely to be on the Australian Government’s agenda in 2016. Cross-media ownership reforms are tipped to prompt consolidation in the sector, which could include several media groups merging to form a multi-platform conglomerate. However, some industry experts believe that the value of media stocks will need to fall further in order to make a compelling case for such mega-mergers. News Corp now has exposure to newspapers, TV, radio and outdoor advertising, and it may pursue further expansion under relaxed media laws. This in turn may force some its rivals to amalgamate in order to remain competitive.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, APN NEWS AND MEDIA LIMITED – ASX APN, NOVA ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, MACQUARIE MEDIA LIMITED – ASX MRN, ILLYRIA PTY LTD, MULTI CHANNEL NETWORK PTY LTD, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS AND THE ARTS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, PACIFIC MAGAZINES PTY LTD, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, BAUER MEDIA KG, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DOMAIN.COM.AU, McDONALD’S CORPORATION

Oil price drop to fuel Qantas profit

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 11-Jan-16

Paul Butler of Credit Suisse says the sharp decline in the price of Brent crude oil and jet fuel in recent months should boost the earnings of Qantas over the next two years. Shareholders at the carrier’s 2015 annual meeting were told that its fuel bill for 2015-16 will be around $A3.61bn, but Butler forecasts that this could potentially fall by around $A110m. He adds that hedging could allow Qantas to slash its fuel costs by another $A160m in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Rivals to gain from Dick Smith’s demise

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 7-Jan-16

Thomas Kierath of Morgan Stanley expects the collapse of Dick Smith to boost the annual sales of JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman by around $A200m apiece, and lift their net profits by up to $A20m. David Thomas of CLSA says JB Hi-Fi is likely to gain the most benefit from the closure of any Dick Smith stores, although Matthew Felsman of APP Securities notes that signs of slowing demand for Apple’s iPhone may hit JB Hi-Fi.

CORPORATES
DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, APP SECURITIES PTY LTD, APPLE INCORPORATED, THE GOOD GUYS, WOW SIGHT AND SOUND PTY LTD, FORAGER FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Investors downbeat on ASX growth prospects

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 6-Jan-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index shed 1.3 per cent in 2015, and a survey by Investment Trends shows that investors expect the sharemarket to rise by less than five per cent in 2016. King Loong Choi of Investment Trends notes that investor sentiment is being affected by factors such as low interest rates, sharemarket volatility, the slowing Australian economy and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy.

CORPORATES
INVESTMENT TRENDS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, GEM CAPITAL FINANCIAL ADVICE, HENDERSON GROUP PLC – ASX HGG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Deals boom set to gain new steam

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 18 : 4-Jan-16

Dealogic notes that some $US129.8bn ($A177.7bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions were announced in Australia during 2015. However, the value of completed deals fell from $US101.2bn to $US97.4bn. Tim Joyce of Macquarie Capital expects M&A activity to increase in 2016, while Aidan Allen of Citigroup anticipates that the retail sector will be among those to be targeted in 2016. He also expects more takeover activity among private equity firms.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, SCEPTER PARTNERS, TRANSGRID, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS LP, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB