BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Small caps tipped to lift tough reporting season

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 22 : 1-Feb-16

The consensus of analysts is that the Australian sharemarket’s earnings per share will decline by six per cent in the February 2016 reporting season. However, a 45.5 per cent fall in earnings per share is forecast for the resources sector. Donald Williams of Platypus Asset Management is bearish about the outlook for the sector, warning that commodity prices are unlikely to rebound for several years. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects stocks outside the top 20 to perform the best.

CORPORATES
PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BENNELONG AUSTRALIAN EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, MANTRA GROUP LIMITED – ASX MTR, AVEO GROUP – ASX AOG, BURSON GROUP LIMITED – ASX BAP, CSG LIMITED – ASX CSV, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Charter Hall’s Southon to go as MD

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Original article by Mercedes Ruehl
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 29-Jan-16

Some analysts do not expect Charter Hall Group to be significantly affected if co-founder David Southon vacates the role of MD, which he shares with David Harrison. The two executives have been joint MD since 2004, and they are also joint CFO of the Australian-listed property group. While Charter Hall has yet to confirm that Southon will step down, it is believed that he will do so when the group releases its 2015-16 interim financial results in February 2016.

CORPORATES
CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, LEIGHTON PROPERTIES PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED, RESOLUTION CAPITAL LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX

Investors back bid for Woolworths’ Home

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Original article by Catie Low
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 28-Jan-16

Allan Gray MD Simon Mawhinney says a merger between Metcash’s Mitre 10 business and the Home Timber & Hardware division of Woolworths could be a good deal if it was secured at an appropriate price. The future of the Home business is uncertain following Woolworths’ decision to exit the ill-fated Masters Home Improvement joint venture. Metcash has been touted as a potential buyer of Home, and it is said to have initiated talks with Woolworths on such a deal in mid-2015.

CORPORATES
METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, MITRE 10 LIMITED, HOME TIMBER AND HARDWARE, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, LUMINIS PARTNERS PTY LTD, DANKS HOLDINGS LIMITED, LOWE’S COMPANIES INCORPORATED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Moody’s may cut Woodside, Origin ratings

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 25-Jan-16

Ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service has scaled back its Brent crude oil price assumptions by $US10 per barrel in both 2016 and 2017, to $US33 and $US38 respectively. The firm notes that there is a risk of a further downturn in the crude oil price. Meanwhile, Moody’s has indicated that it expects to complete a review of the credit ratings of Origin Energy and Woodside Petroleum by the end of March, which could potentially result in downgrades.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED

Woodside takes $1.7bn hit as oil prices slump

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 : 22-Jan-16

Oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum has reported revenue of $US1.105bn for the December 2015 quarter, which is 37 per cent lower than the same period in 2014. Revenue for the full year also fell by 37 per cent to $US4.5bn, due to the downturn in the crude oil price. Woodside has advised that its full-year accounts will be marred by asset write-downs of up to $US1bn ($A1.2bn). Its shares closed $A0.39 lower at $A25 on 21 January 2016.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, APACHE CORPORATION, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

South32 cuts its debts further

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 18 : 22-Jan-16

South32’s net debt fell to $US115m in the December 2015 quarter, after it repaid $US81 million worth of debt during the period. The BHP Billiton spin-off’s debt had exceeded $US400m at the start of 2015-16, and Paul McTaggart of Credit Suisse forecasts that it will have no debt at the end of the financial year. Meanwhile, South32 has reported that its metallurgical coal output fell by 41 per cent during the second quarter, while manganese production was 37 per cent lower.

CORPORATES
SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

BHP’s biggest question is its $US6.6b payout

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 23 : 21-Jan-16

Iron ore was the only one of BHP Billiton’s "four pillars" to post an increase in production during the six months to December 2015. The resources giant expects to achieve its 2015-16 production guidance for coal, copper and petroleum, although iron ore output is likely to be lower than forecast as a result of the Samarco disaster in Brazil. Meanwhile, BHP’s progressive dividend policy is expected to come under scrutiny again, and UBS forecasts that its interim dividend will be slashed by 50 per cent to $A0.31 per share.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Ratings agency predicts weaker bank profit growth in 2016

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 20-Jan-16

Fitch Ratings warns that Australian banks are likely to face lower growth in earnings in 2016, citing factors such as a rise in bad loans, an increase in the cost of funding and stronger competition in the sector. However, the ratings agency notes that capital raisings in 2015 mean the four major banks are well-placed to handle any increase in bad loans.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rio eases off its iron ore expansion

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 20-Jan-16

Rio Tinto expects to produce 350 million tonnes of iron ore in Western Australia and Canada in 2016, which is slightly below market forecasts of 355 million tonnes. Total production was 327 million tonnes in 2015, with the Pilbara region accounting for 310 million tonnes. However, Rio had initially flagged Pilbara output of 330 million tonnes. The latest guidance suggests that Rio Tinto may not achieve its Pilbara production target of 335 million tonnes in 2016.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, IRON ORE COMPANY OF CANADA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

APN raises guidance 56pc as funds forge ahead

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 19-Jan-16

APN Property Group has revised its full-year earnings guidance. The Australian-listed real estate investment fund stated on 18 January 2016 that its operating earnings for the year would be between $A0.032 and $A0.035 per share, compared with a prediction of earnings of $A0.02 and $A0.023 per share, made at the AGM in November 2015.

CORPORATES
APN PROPERTY GROUP LIMITED – ASX APD, INDUSTRIA REIT FUND – ASX IDR, GENERATION HEALTHCARE REIT – ASX GHC, GROCON PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA