BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

New year tech floats pipeline bulging after late 2020 surge

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 14 : 11-Jan-21

Beforepay, Marketplacer and Vinomofo are among the companies that are believed to be looking to pursue an IPO in 2021. Technology stocks are expected to be among the leading IPO candidates again, following the sharemarket debuts of companies such as Nuix and Hipages in late 2020. ASX Limited’s Max Cunningham says the success of Nuix’s IPO demonstrates the strong interest in high-growth technology companies. However, Paul Bassat of Square Peg Capital says companies should delay an IPO if they have doubts about being ready to go public.

CORPORATES
BEFOREPAY, MARKETPLACER, VINOMOFO, NUIX LIMITED – ASX NXL, HIPAGES GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HPG, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, SQUARE PEG CAPITAL PTY LTD

Nick Scali upgrades profit as retailers end 2020 on a high

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Fernyhough
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 6-Jan-21

Shares in furniture retailer Nick Scali rose to record highs during trading on 5 January after it advised that it expected its profit for the six months to 31 December would be $40.5 million, double the result for the previous corresponding period. The company also stated that its sales for the past three months were up by 58 per cent. Meanwhile, Sydney retailers other than those in the Sydney CBD have indicated that they saw strong foot traffic for the Boxing Day sales; National Retail Association CEO Dominique Lamb noted the Sydney CBD had been a "ghost town".

CORPORATES
NICK SCALI LIMITED – ASX NCK, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Australia’s iron ore miners cashing in

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 21-Dec-20

The federal Department of Industry has revised its export earnings forecasts in response to a surge in the iron ore price. It had forecast in September that the nation’s iron ore producers would boast sales of about $97bn in 2020-21, but this has now been upgraded to $123bn. The forecast for iron ore sales in 2021-22 has in turn been upgraded from $80bn to $95bn. However, thermal coal exports are expected to be lower in 2020-21 due to China’s restrictions on imports from Australia. Meanwhile, the nation’s overall resources and energy exports are now expected to total $278.7bn in 2020-21; this is $22.3bn higher than was forecast in September, but $11.9bn lower than in 2019-20.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE, ENERGY AND RESOURCES

Tough market sours outlook for resources

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 23-Nov-20

A new report from the federal government notes that Australia’s resource and energy sector made final investment decisions on $39bn worth of projects in the year to 31 October, which is 30 per cent higher than previously. The total value of the sector’s investment pipeline has risen to $334bn in 2020. However, the Department of Industry, Science, Energy & Resources’ latest Major Projects report warns that investment is unlikely to return to the levels seen during the last boom in the minerals and energy sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE, ENERGY AND RESOURCES

Dividend payouts fall 50pc in quarter

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 15 : 23-Nov-20

Data from Janus Henderson shows that Australian-listed companies paid out $US9.6bn ($13.4bn) worth of dividends in the September quarter, which is 47.8 per cent lower than the same period in 2019. This was primarily due to reduced dividends from three of the major banks, while a number of companies chose to withhold dividends. Jane Shoemake of Janus Henderson says payout ratios in Australia were too high and a "reset" was needed. Janus Henderson expects dividend payouts to rise in the second quarter of 2021.

CORPORATES
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC – ASX JHG

Analysts tip $11bn profits for banks in messy accounting year

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 15 : 26-Oct-20

The ANZ Bank, Westpac and National Australia Bank will report their financial results for the year to 30 September in the next two weeks. Analysts expect Australia’s major banks to book a combined profit of about $11bn, with the Commonwealth Bank having reported its full-year results in August. The full-year results will be affected by factors such as remediation charges, asset sales and Westpac’s recent settlement with Austrac.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Big banks’ wealth retreat may be short-lived

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Aleks Vickovich
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 16-Oct-20

IOOF CEO Renato Mota does not think Australia’s big banks will be involved in the wealth management sector over the next five years, although he expects them to return to the sector eventually. The major banks have either exited the sector or are in the process of doing so as a result of damning revelations at the Hayne royal commission. Netwealth’s joint MD Matt Heine notes that banks also got out of wealth management in the UK but re-entered the sector within 10 years, although "with very different propositions". Hub24 MD Andrew Alcock says the thought of the banks returning to wealth management does not perturb him.

CORPORATES
IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED – ASX NWL, HUB24 LIMITED – ASX HUB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Banks stay cautious despite lending shift

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 15 : 28-Sep-20

Investors Mutual founder Anton Tagliaferro does not expect the federal government’s proposal to scrap responsible lending laws to make a "material difference" to Australia’s banks. He says banks tend to be very cautious during a recession, adding that this is likely to continue going into 2021. Tagliaferro adds that banks are likely to be focused on existing loans in the near-term, as repayment deferral periods come to an end. Meanwhile, he expects the federal Budget on 6 October to include tax cuts and measures aimed at boosting jobs.

CORPORATES
INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED

Retail can thrive in online shopping shift

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 23-Sep-20

More consumers have embraced online shopping due to the coronavirus pandemic, a trend that Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra expects to continue. He says the proportion of retail sales that are made online could rise to 20 per cent over the next 18-24 months, compared with about 10 per cent prior to COVID-19. Zahra warns that more physical stores are likely to close in coming years, but the shift to online will force retailers to adapt their business models. The pandemic has also prompted more consumers to support retailers within their local community.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

CBA investors brace for lower payout

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 15 : 10-Aug-20

The consensus of analysts is that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s 2019-20 cash earnings will be 10 per cent lower than previously, at $7.6bn. UBS expects the coronavirus pandemic to prompt CBA to increase its impairment charges for the second half to $1.9bn, which includes a $1.5bn COVID-related provision that the bank announced earlier in the year. Meanwhile, UBS forecasts that CBA shareholders will receive a final dividend of $0.95 per share, which would be in line with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s revised guidance.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD