BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Listed companies too afraid to provide guidance, study says

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 11 : 8-Dec-15

McGrathNicol has released a report which shows that just 49 per cent of the 104 Australian-listed companies it surveyed have released earnings guidance in 2015, compared with 57 per cent in 2014. The survey also found that the number of companies that met or exceeded their earnings guidance fell from 69 per cent in 2014 to 64 per cent. Factors such as concern about class actions and challenging market conditions in some sectors have contributed to companies’ reluctance to release earnings guidance.

CORPORATES
McGRATH NICOL AND PARTNERS SERVICES PTY LTD, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, BROADSPECTRUM LIMITED – ASX BRS, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX PBG

Insurance jobs under threat from technology

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 8-Dec-15

Suncorp Group executive Darren O’Connell notes that the growing use of automation in the insurance sector has resulted in the elimination of entry-level jobs in the underwriting industry. He says this will result in a dearth of underwriters with expertise across the industry as older staff retire and their skills and knowledge are lost. O’Connell argues in a research paper that technology can never completely replace people in the underwriting industry, and insurers should reconsider their recruitment procedures.

CORPORATES
SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, SWISS RE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, IBM CORPORATION

Atlassian on the verge of record-breaking float in the US

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 7-Dec-15

Australian software developer Atlassian is reportedly due to list on the Nasdaq stock exchange on 10 December 2015, although this has yet to be confirmed. The group’s IPO is expected to be worth about $US350m, with its shares likely to be issued at between $US16.50 and $US18.50 apiece. Data from Renaissance Capital shows that the number of technology IPOs in the US has fallen from 55 in 2014 to just 22 so far in 2015.

CORPORATES
ATLASSIAN SOFTWARE SYSTEMS PTY LTD, NASDAQ, RENAISSANCE CAPITAL CORPORATION, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, GARTNER GROUP INCORPORATED, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Ad market set for election bounce in 2016, say sales bosses

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 7-Dec-15

Australia’s commercial TV networks are upbeat about the outlook for the advertising market in 2016. Seven West Media’s chief revenue officer Kurt Burnette notes that there was 11 per cent growth in the ad market in 2004, which is the last time the Olympics and a federal election were held in the same year. Optimism about the ad market in 2016 will also be bolstered by the national census in August.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, PACIFIC MAGAZINES PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, YAHOO!7 COMMUNICATIONS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MULTI CHANNEL NETWORK PTY LTD, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, OZTAM PTY LTD

Worst yet to come for BHP, says S&P

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Original article by Peter Ker, Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 25-Nov-15

Standard & Poor’s has left BHP Billiton’s credit rating of "A+" with a negative outlook unchanged. Analyst May Zhong says the tailings dam disaster at the Samarco iron ore joint venture will not have any near-term effect on BHP’s credit rating. However, Zhong adds that factors such as BHP’s progressive dividend policy and the downturn in commodity prices are likely to adversely affect the group’s financial risk profile in 2016.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, VALE SA, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

AGM downgrades but growth likely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 24-Nov-15

Analysis by Citigroup shows that 36 Australian-listed companies have upgraded their earnings guidance during the 2015 AGM season, and 42 have issued downgrades. Citigroup’s Tony Brennan notes that earnings-per-share forecasts have been reduced by about one per cent overall. Citigroup now expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at 5,900 points at the end of 2016, compared with its previous forecast of 6,200.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

BHP tipped to cut dividend to keep rating

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Original article by James Thomson, Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 24-Nov-15

BHP Billiton’s share price has fallen by 18.3 per cent in the last month, with the stock closing at $A20.07 on 23 November 2015. BHP’s progressive dividend policy has come under scrutiny following the downturn in iron ore and coal prices. Glyn Lawcock of UBS believes that unless prices rebound, the resources giant will have to reduce its dividend to ensure that its credit rating is not downgraded. UBS recently scaled back its 12-month share price target from $A28 to $A24.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION

Newcrest unscathed as NSW mine reopens

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 24-Nov-15

Australian-listed Newcrest Mining has advised that problems with a mill at its Cadia gold mine in New South Wales have been resolved. The mill has resumed production after a 35-day shutdown and has returned to full capacity. Output in the September 2015 quarter had been affected by the shutdown, but Newcrest still expects to achieve its 2015-16 full-year production guidance of 2.4 million to 2.6 million ounces of gold.

CORPORATES
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

James Hardie guns for US as profit slips

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Original article by Tim Binsted
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 20-Nov-15

James Hardie Industries has reported $US65.3 million ($A92 million) in adjusted profit for the second quarter of 2015-16. The Australian-listed building products supplier stated on 19 November 2015 that its full-year profit will be lower than previously forecast. The company now expects adjusted profit for 2015-16 to be between $US230 million and $US250 million.

CORPORATES
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX

Uncertainty clouds fate of blue-chip dividends

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 13-Nov-15

Data from Morningstar shows that the average gross dividend yield for S&P/ASX 20 stocks has risen to a seven year-high of seven per cent. Meanwhile, three of the top-20 stocks have a 12-month gross yield in excess of 10 per cent, according to Bloomberg. ST Wong of Prime Value Asset Management says the top-20 stocks should be able to maintain their dividend payouts during the next year. However, some analysts believe that banks and resources groups may need to reduce their dividends.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 20 INDEX, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, PRIME VALUE ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD