BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

BoQ chief glimpses a sunnier state for bank

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Original article by Shaun Drummond
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 9-Oct-15

Bank of Queensland has posted 2014-15 cash earnings of $A$357m, which is 19 per cent higher than previously. Revenue was 17 per cent higher at $A1.08bn, while its home loan book increase by nine per cent to $A25.6bn. The value of all loans rose by seven per cent to $A40.9bn in total. CEO Jon Sutton is upbeat about the regional bank’s earnings outlook, noting that it should benefit from factors such as new capital requirements for its larger peers.

CORPORATES
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CONTANGO ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, VIRGIN MONEY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Media reform unlikely to be a pot of gold

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 6-Oct-15

Citigroup analyst Justin Diddams does not expect changes to cross-media ownership laws to result in industry mergers that will deliver increased value for investors. He argues that any such mergers would be primarily aimed at reducing costs and ensuring the survival of media companies. The Commonwealth Bank’s Alice Bennett says Nine Entertainment Company is the most likely metropolitan network to pursue a merger deal with a regional broadcaster.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, MACQUARIE RADIO NETWORK LIMITED – ASX MRN, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Nine a potential winner

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 1-Oct-15

Credit Suisse believes that reforms to cross-media ownership laws are inevitable under new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Fraser McLeish of Credit Suisse says Nine Entertainment Company would be well-placed to acquire a regional broadcaster if the "reach rule" is abolished. Credit Suisse has a share price target of $A1.80 and an "outperform" rating on the stock.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Junior explorers under pressure

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 28-Sep-15

BDO estimates that about 20 per cent of the 780 smaller resources companies that are listed on the Australian sharemarket do not have active exploration programs. Smaller explorers spent an average of $A481,000 on exploration programs in the June 2015 quarter, compared with $A980,000 during the same period in 2013. Sherif Andrawes of BDO expects more junior explorers to go private or be subject to a reverse takeover.

CORPORATES
BDO AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Is Metcash worth more dead or alive?

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Original article by Adele Ferguson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 28-Sep-15

Metcash’s grocery wholesaling business accounts for more than 70 per cent of group earnings, but some experts have questioned whether the business will be viable in the long-term. The downturn in Metcash’s share price has prompted speculation that it may be targeted by private equity groups, with a view to a demerger. The IGA stores supplied by Metcash are also facing growing competition from Aldi, while allegations that some IGA stores have being underpaying their staff have emerged in the wake of the 7-Eleven scandal.

CORPORATES
METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, IGA, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, 7-ELEVEN STORES PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, FOODWORKS SUPERMARKET GROUP LIMITED, FOODLAND AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LUCKY 7 HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MITRE 10 LIMITED, DANKS HOLDINGS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 100 ACCUMULATION INDEX, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOD AND GROCERY COUNCIL, LION PTY LTD

Graincorp up on PM change

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 17-Sep-15

Shares in GrainCorp have risen by nearly nine per cent since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. There has been speculation that Archer Daniels Midland could make a new takeover bid for GrainCorp due to the leadership change. Archer’s previous bid in 2013 was blocked by Treasurer Joe Hockey on national interest grounds. Belinda Moore of Morgans Financial attributes the share price rally to expectations that the Federal Government will be more open to foreign investment under Turnbull.

CORPORATES
GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND COMPANY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

IGA prepares for Aldi attack

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 17-Sep-15

Aldi will expand into the Western Australian and South Australian markets in 2016, and it will pose a major threat to Metcash in particular. Nearly 30 per cent of stores that trade under Metcash’s IGA banner are located in these states. Morgan Stanley believes that Aldi’s entry could slash the sales of independent retailers operating under the IGA banner by about $A360m a year, while Metcash itself could face a sharp fall in sales. Its market share in the eastern states is already falling, although a survey by Roy Morgan Research shows that it boasts the highest level of customer loyalty.

CORPORATES
ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, IGA, COLES GROUP LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, SIMMO’S ICE CREAMERY

Retail gets highest marks in REIT reporting season

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 16-Sep-15

Analysis by CLSA shows that the operating income of Australian retail-focused real estate investment trusts rose by 2.9 per cent during the August 2015 reporting season. This compares with growth of 2.2 per cent for industrial property trusts and 1.5 per cent for those with a focus on the office market. Michael Scott of CLSA is upbeat about the outlook for retail REITs, citing factors such as the improving outlook for retail sales.

CORPORATES
CSM AUSTRALIA, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, FEDERATION CENTRES – ASX FDC, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS

Incitec predicts further growth in US, China

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 16-Sep-15

Incitec Pivot CEO James Fazzino says that the US will account for around 50 per cent of the group’s earnings when its ammonia plant in Louisiana is fully operational. He notes that US shale gas prices have fallen sharply since Incitec decided to proceed with the plant, adding that the Louisiana facility provides investors with a "compelling" reason to buy the group’s shares. Fazzino also remains upbeat about the outlook for the Chinese economy.

CORPORATES
INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CHS, CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Macquarie poised for record $2b annual profit

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 15-Sep-15

Australian-listed Macquarie Group has advised that its 2015-16 interim profit will be 40 per cent higher than the $A678m result for the previous corresponding period. This suggests that Macquarie’s profit for the half-year to 30 September 2015 will be around $A949m. Macquarie has indicated that its profit for the second half will be similar to the first half, which means its full-year result could be around $A1.9bn. Meanwhile, the group has made a binding offer to acquire the Esanda dealer finance business from the ANZ Bank.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, CLSA CAPITAL PARTNERS, WHITE FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TRANSGRID, LONDON CITY AIRPORT