BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

IGA prepares for Aldi attack

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 17-Sep-15

Aldi will expand into the Western Australian and South Australian markets in 2016, and it will pose a major threat to Metcash in particular. Nearly 30 per cent of stores that trade under Metcash’s IGA banner are located in these states. Morgan Stanley believes that Aldi’s entry could slash the sales of independent retailers operating under the IGA banner by about $A360m a year, while Metcash itself could face a sharp fall in sales. Its market share in the eastern states is already falling, although a survey by Roy Morgan Research shows that it boasts the highest level of customer loyalty.

CORPORATES
ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, IGA, COLES GROUP LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, SIMMO’S ICE CREAMERY

Retail gets highest marks in REIT reporting season

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 16-Sep-15

Analysis by CLSA shows that the operating income of Australian retail-focused real estate investment trusts rose by 2.9 per cent during the August 2015 reporting season. This compares with growth of 2.2 per cent for industrial property trusts and 1.5 per cent for those with a focus on the office market. Michael Scott of CLSA is upbeat about the outlook for retail REITs, citing factors such as the improving outlook for retail sales.

CORPORATES
CSM AUSTRALIA, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, FEDERATION CENTRES – ASX FDC, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS

Incitec predicts further growth in US, China

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 16-Sep-15

Incitec Pivot CEO James Fazzino says that the US will account for around 50 per cent of the group’s earnings when its ammonia plant in Louisiana is fully operational. He notes that US shale gas prices have fallen sharply since Incitec decided to proceed with the plant, adding that the Louisiana facility provides investors with a "compelling" reason to buy the group’s shares. Fazzino also remains upbeat about the outlook for the Chinese economy.

CORPORATES
INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CHS, CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Macquarie poised for record $2b annual profit

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 15-Sep-15

Australian-listed Macquarie Group has advised that its 2015-16 interim profit will be 40 per cent higher than the $A678m result for the previous corresponding period. This suggests that Macquarie’s profit for the half-year to 30 September 2015 will be around $A949m. Macquarie has indicated that its profit for the second half will be similar to the first half, which means its full-year result could be around $A1.9bn. Meanwhile, the group has made a binding offer to acquire the Esanda dealer finance business from the ANZ Bank.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, CLSA CAPITAL PARTNERS, WHITE FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TRANSGRID, LONDON CITY AIRPORT

Top sectors for feeding the dividend beast cited

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 15-Sep-15

Beulah Capital’s Peter Mavromatis does not expect further increases in Australian companies’ dividend payout ratios. He forecasts that companies will instead pursue mergers and acquisitions as investors continue to seek high dividend yields. Mavromatis believes that local and offshore companies will target sectors such as IT, property, transport and logistics. Gerald Moser of Credit Suisse Private Bank suggests that the healthcare and IT sectors are likely to experience more consolidation.

CORPORATES
BEULAH CAPITAL PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FIDELITY AUSTRALIAN OPPORTUNITIES FUND, 3P LEARNING LIMITED – ASX 3PL, LEARNOSITY PTY LTD

Growth key in tighter IPO environment

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 11-Sep-15

The Australian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association’s 2015 conference has been told that conditions remain favourable for IPOs, although the market is not as strong as in 2014. Justin Ryan of Quadrant Private Equity says low interest rates will continue to make IPOs attractive to investors. Jeremy Tasker of Macquarie Group says IPO candidates that offer good earnings growth will receive support from fund managers in an environment of slowing economic growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY FUND, GREENSTONE LIMITED, LINK GROUP PTY LTD, PETERS ICE CREAM, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, KKR AND COMPANY LP, ALLIER CAPITAL PTY LTD, ARCHER CAPITAL PTY LTD, HEALTHE CARE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Talk of GST increase spooks industry leaders

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 36 : 10-Sep-15

An increase in the rate of Australia’s goods and services tax (GST) would have a negative impact on the property sector. Matthew Cridland, GST partner at law firm DLA Piper, warns in a briefing document that less supply could be expected from housing developers and retirement village operators if the GST rises to 15 per cent. Shopping centres would also be negatively influenced.

CORPORATES
DLA PIPER, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ACIL ALLEN CONSULTING PTY LTD, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Qantas lifts off year with strong July figures

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 2-Sep-15

Qantas Airways told analysts on 1 September 2015 that debt levels were low enough so there was no need to lower them. Analysts were impressed by the figures provided by the company. Qantas International increased its capacity by 2.7 per cent and yet it managed to increase the proportion of seats filled by two percentage points to 85.4 per cent.

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, JETSTAR AIRLINES PTY LTD, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BALANCED EQUITY MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Foxtel has to score NRL deal

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 31-Aug-15

Foxtel is under commercial pressure to acquire the future pay television rights to show National Rugby League (NRL) games. OzTAM’s recent ratings figures suggest that NRL games are important for Foxtel’s ratings. If Foxtel fails to secure more games, more than $A350 million of its $A3.1 billion annual revenue could be at risk.

CORPORATES
FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, OZTAM PTY LTD, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, FOX SPORTS, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Hooker glum on Melbourne, Sydney industrial yield

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 18-Aug-15

LJ Hooker expects a rise in prices for prime-grade industrial property in Sydney and Melbourne, due to strong interest from local and foreign investors. Yields are likely to fall below seven per cent. Over the 12 months to June 2015, industrial sales increased 56 per cent to $A5.3 billion. Sydney’s yields rose by 57 basis points to 7.2 per cent in the same period. In Melbourne, they declined 50 basis points to 7.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
LJ HOOKER (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED, AUSTRALAND PROPERTY GROUP, MAPLETREE INVESTMENTS PTE LTD, ASCENDAS PTE LTD, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG