BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Macquarie poised for record $2b annual profit

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 15-Sep-15

Australian-listed Macquarie Group has advised that its 2015-16 interim profit will be 40 per cent higher than the $A678m result for the previous corresponding period. This suggests that Macquarie’s profit for the half-year to 30 September 2015 will be around $A949m. Macquarie has indicated that its profit for the second half will be similar to the first half, which means its full-year result could be around $A1.9bn. Meanwhile, the group has made a binding offer to acquire the Esanda dealer finance business from the ANZ Bank.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, CLSA CAPITAL PARTNERS, WHITE FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TRANSGRID, LONDON CITY AIRPORT

Top sectors for feeding the dividend beast cited

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 15-Sep-15

Beulah Capital’s Peter Mavromatis does not expect further increases in Australian companies’ dividend payout ratios. He forecasts that companies will instead pursue mergers and acquisitions as investors continue to seek high dividend yields. Mavromatis believes that local and offshore companies will target sectors such as IT, property, transport and logistics. Gerald Moser of Credit Suisse Private Bank suggests that the healthcare and IT sectors are likely to experience more consolidation.

CORPORATES
BEULAH CAPITAL PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FIDELITY AUSTRALIAN OPPORTUNITIES FUND, 3P LEARNING LIMITED – ASX 3PL, LEARNOSITY PTY LTD

Growth key in tighter IPO environment

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 11-Sep-15

The Australian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association’s 2015 conference has been told that conditions remain favourable for IPOs, although the market is not as strong as in 2014. Justin Ryan of Quadrant Private Equity says low interest rates will continue to make IPOs attractive to investors. Jeremy Tasker of Macquarie Group says IPO candidates that offer good earnings growth will receive support from fund managers in an environment of slowing economic growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY FUND, GREENSTONE LIMITED, LINK GROUP PTY LTD, PETERS ICE CREAM, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, KKR AND COMPANY LP, ALLIER CAPITAL PTY LTD, ARCHER CAPITAL PTY LTD, HEALTHE CARE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Talk of GST increase spooks industry leaders

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 36 : 10-Sep-15

An increase in the rate of Australia’s goods and services tax (GST) would have a negative impact on the property sector. Matthew Cridland, GST partner at law firm DLA Piper, warns in a briefing document that less supply could be expected from housing developers and retirement village operators if the GST rises to 15 per cent. Shopping centres would also be negatively influenced.

CORPORATES
DLA PIPER, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ACIL ALLEN CONSULTING PTY LTD, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Qantas lifts off year with strong July figures

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 2-Sep-15

Qantas Airways told analysts on 1 September 2015 that debt levels were low enough so there was no need to lower them. Analysts were impressed by the figures provided by the company. Qantas International increased its capacity by 2.7 per cent and yet it managed to increase the proportion of seats filled by two percentage points to 85.4 per cent.

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, JETSTAR AIRLINES PTY LTD, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BALANCED EQUITY MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Foxtel has to score NRL deal

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 31-Aug-15

Foxtel is under commercial pressure to acquire the future pay television rights to show National Rugby League (NRL) games. OzTAM’s recent ratings figures suggest that NRL games are important for Foxtel’s ratings. If Foxtel fails to secure more games, more than $A350 million of its $A3.1 billion annual revenue could be at risk.

CORPORATES
FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, OZTAM PTY LTD, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, FOX SPORTS, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Hooker glum on Melbourne, Sydney industrial yield

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 18-Aug-15

LJ Hooker expects a rise in prices for prime-grade industrial property in Sydney and Melbourne, due to strong interest from local and foreign investors. Yields are likely to fall below seven per cent. Over the 12 months to June 2015, industrial sales increased 56 per cent to $A5.3 billion. Sydney’s yields rose by 57 basis points to 7.2 per cent in the same period. In Melbourne, they declined 50 basis points to 7.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
LJ HOOKER (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED, AUSTRALAND PROPERTY GROUP, MAPLETREE INVESTMENTS PTE LTD, ASCENDAS PTE LTD, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG

Harvey Norman predicted to be solid

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 6-Aug-15

UBS has a "buy" recommendation on a number of retail stocks that benefit from a strong housing market. The firm is particularly upbeat about the outlook for Harvey Norman in the August 2015 reporting season, although it also likes JB Hi-Fi, Breville Group and Adairs. However, UBS is bearish about grocery retailers. Credit Suisse also favours Harvey Norman, while JB Hi-Fi is the top pick for Macquarie Group.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED – ASX BRG, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL

Rio should unveil ‘another buyback’

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Aug-15

Most analysts expect Rio Tinto to post 2015 interim underlying earnings of $US2.4bn (A$3.2bn), compared with $US5.1bn previously. Rio Tinto commenced a $US2bn share buyback in February 2015, and Paul Young of Deutsche Bank says it should use cost and capital expenditure savings to finance another buyback in early 2016. The majority of analysts also expect Rio Tinto to abandon its progressive dividend, although Young forecasts that its existing policy will be retained.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GLENCORE PLC

Rio should unveil ‘another buyback’

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Aug-15

Most analysts expect Rio Tinto to post 2015 interim underlying earnings of $US2.4bn (A$3.2bn), compared with $US5.1bn previously. Rio Tinto commenced a $US2bn share buyback in February 2015, and Paul Young of Deutsche Bank says it should use cost and capital expenditure savings to finance another buyback in early 2016. The majority of analysts also expect Rio Tinto to abandon its progressive dividend, although Young forecasts that its existing policy will be retained.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GLENCORE PLC