BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Harvey Norman predicted to be solid

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 6-Aug-15

UBS has a "buy" recommendation on a number of retail stocks that benefit from a strong housing market. The firm is particularly upbeat about the outlook for Harvey Norman in the August 2015 reporting season, although it also likes JB Hi-Fi, Breville Group and Adairs. However, UBS is bearish about grocery retailers. Credit Suisse also favours Harvey Norman, while JB Hi-Fi is the top pick for Macquarie Group.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED – ASX BRG, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL

Rio should unveil ‘another buyback’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Aug-15

Most analysts expect Rio Tinto to post 2015 interim underlying earnings of $US2.4bn (A$3.2bn), compared with $US5.1bn previously. Rio Tinto commenced a $US2bn share buyback in February 2015, and Paul Young of Deutsche Bank says it should use cost and capital expenditure savings to finance another buyback in early 2016. The majority of analysts also expect Rio Tinto to abandon its progressive dividend, although Young forecasts that its existing policy will be retained.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GLENCORE PLC

Rio should unveil ‘another buyback’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Aug-15

Most analysts expect Rio Tinto to post 2015 interim underlying earnings of $US2.4bn (A$3.2bn), compared with $US5.1bn previously. Rio Tinto commenced a $US2bn share buyback in February 2015, and Paul Young of Deutsche Bank says it should use cost and capital expenditure savings to finance another buyback in early 2016. The majority of analysts also expect Rio Tinto to abandon its progressive dividend, although Young forecasts that its existing policy will be retained.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GLENCORE PLC

Screen boss tips revival from local film production decline

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bodey
The Australian – Page: 25 : 3-Aug-15

The total expenditure on Australian film and TV productions in 2013-14 was $A640m. Expenditure fell in 2014-15 and is also expected to be lower in 2015-16. Screen Australia CEO Graeme Mason says the main contributor to the downturn is the decline in offshore funding for local productions. However, Mason anticipates an upturn in the local industry, and notes that Australian TV shows and films are attracting strong ratings and good takings at the box office.

CORPORATES
SCREEN AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Gorgon’s first LNG cargo faces delay

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 3-Aug-15

US-based Chevron has advised that the Gorgon LNG project may not commence shipments until early 2016. Production was initially slated to begin in the September 2014 quarter, but this was subsequently pushed back to late 2015 due to delays and a cost blowout. Chevron executive Jay Johnson says unforeseeable events such as inclement weather could further delay the $US54bn project, which also faces the threat of strike action over enterprise agreement negotiations.

CORPORATES
CHEVRON CORPORATION, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, CB&I INCORPORATED

Mobile banking tipped to wipe 600 branches

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 3-Aug-15

A UBS report forecasts that the growing shift to the use of mobile banking services will result in a 5.6 per cent reduction in the number of bank branches globally. Australian bank executives who participated in the UBS survey expect local bank branch numbers to be slashed by 11 per cent in coming years, which would equate to 603 branches. The survey also forecasts that the proportion of banking transactions carried out using mobile technology will rise from 25 per cent to 46 per cent in the next three years.

CORPORATES
UBS AG, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, NAB VENTURES

Miners pin hopes on gold-led resurgence

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 3-Aug-15

Mergers and acquisitions activity in the global mining sector topped $A4.2trn in 2014, according to data from Dealogic. In contrast, there were just $A77.6bn worth of deals involving Australian mining companies and assets. However, a number of recent deals in the local gold mining sector has boosted optimism about the outlook for M&A activity, particularly in the gold industry. Hayden Bairstow of Macquarie Group expects M&A to be a hot topic during the upcoming Diggers & Dealers conference.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, DIGGERS AND DEALERS FORUM, NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, NEWMONT MINING CORPORATION, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, ROMARCO MINERALS INCORPORATED, ANTOFAGASTA PLC, METALS X LIMITED – ASX MLX, RNI NL – ASX RNI, PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX PAN, TANAMI GOLD NL – ASX TAM, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD, PCF CAPITAL GROUP PTY LTD, LION SELECTION GROUP LIMITED – ASX LSX, DORAY MINERALS LIMITED – ASX DRM, MUTINY GOLD LIMITED, ERNST AND YOUNG

Navitas flat forecast has shareholders nervous

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 28-Jul-15

Listed education provider Navitas has posted a 2014-15 after-tax net profit of $A71.8m, which is 39 per cent higher than previously. CEO Rod Jones concedes that investors may have expected a higher profit, but describes it as "reasonable". EBITDA rose by 13 per cent to $A163.1, while revenue was 12 per cent higher at $A980.3m. Jones has advised that the group’s 2015-16 profit will be similar to its latest result.

CORPORATES
NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, STUDY OVERSEAS NOW PTY LTD, NAVITAS RESOURCES INSTITUTE, SYDNEY INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY

Rinehart lieutenant bullish on ore, flags Roy Hill delays

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 27-Jul-15

Iron ore was trading at $US51 per tonne on 24 July 2015, but Hancock Prospecting executive director Tad Watroba expects it to rebound to $US80, due to factors such as continued strong demand from China. Meanwhile, Watroba has indicated that factors such as inclement weather and safety concerns will delay the start of production at the Roy Hill iron ore project until early October. Production had been initially slated to commence in September.

CORPORATES
HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, POSCO, MARUBENI CORPORATION, CHINA STEEL CORPORATION, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Australia may miss out on global M&A frenzy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 24-Jul-15

Some $US2.28trn ($A3.09trn) worth of global mergers and acquisitions were announced during the first half of 2015, according to data from Dealogic. This includes 31 deals worth at least $US10bn. However, M&A activity in Australia has totalled just $US56.9bn so far in 2015, and David Friedlander of law firm King & Wood Mallesons describes the level of local activity as "disappointing". Grant Chamberlain of Bank of America Merrill Lynch says five local deals worth at least $A5bn were announced during the first half.

CORPORATES
KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, FEDERATION CENTRES – ASX FDC, NOVION PROPERTY GROUP, BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, GREENHILL AND COMPANY, GRESHAM PARTNERS LIMITED