BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Chinese investment in property tipped to surge

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 22-Jul-15

The Chinese Government’s decision to make the nation’s sharemarket more accessible to international investors has prompted a rally in Shanghai Composite Index over the last year. However, some economists expect the relaxation of rules governing capital outflows from China to have a bigger impact in the long-term. Stephen Halmarick of Colonial First State Global Asset Management expects this to include a big rise in Chinese investment in Australia’s property market.

CORPORATES
COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF SUPERANNUATION TRUSTEES, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, CHINA. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT

Upbeat run-in to reporting season puts 6000 target back on radar

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 22-Jul-15

Just 16 Australian-listed companies have issued earnings downgrades in the lead-up to the August 2015 profit-reporting season. Nader Naeimi of AMP says there is potential for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index to reach the 6,000-point level during the reporting season, although he doubts that it will rise much further. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse has scaled back its end-of-year forecast for the S&P/ASX 200 from 6,500 to 6,000 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, AFFINITY EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFJ, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN

Dairy industry faces tough year

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 21-Jul-15

The global price of whole milk powder fell by 13.1 per cent to $US1,848 per tonne in early July 2015. The downturn has prompted industry body Australian Dairy Farmers to warn that local dairy farmers may struggle to break even in 2015-16. The majority of milk processors have indicated that they will initially pay dairy farmers $A5.60 per kilogram of milksolids, which is just above the cost of production for many farmers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN DAIRY FARMERS’ LIMITED, FONTERRA CO-OPERATIVE GROUP LIMITED

Rio sticks to strategy amid weather woes

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 17-Jul-15

Rio Tinto expects to export 340 million tonnes of iron ore in 2015, compared with previous expectations of 350 million tonnes. Rio has attributed the downgrade to the impact of adverse weather events during the first half of the calendar year, which disrupted production and reduced port capacity. Citigroup estimates that Rio will have to increase its iron ore shipments and fall back on stockpiles to achieve its revised full-year export target. The group’s shares closed 0.3 per cent higher at $A53.31 on 16 July.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Primary Health scare on profit slump

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 17-Jul-15

Shares in Primary Health Care fell by $A0.42 to $A4.77 on 16 July 2015, after the group advised that its 2014-15 EBITDA will around $A400m, which is similar to the previous year. Primary had previously forecast that its EBITDA would be within the range of $A410m to $A425m. Primary has also indicated that it now expects a tax refund of about $A50m, compared with earlier expectations of $A130m.

CORPORATES
PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

LNG price pain to be laid bare

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 14-Jul-15

Nik Burns of UBS expects Woodside Petroleum’s revenue for the June 2015 quarter to be 36 per cent lower than the March quarter. Meanwhile, revenue at Oil Search is tipped to be 35 per cent lower, as the downturn in the crude oil price begins to impact on LNG producers. Meanwhile, Adrian Prendergast of Morgans Financial expects Woodside’s dividend yield to fall from seven per cent to 3.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, APACHE CORPORATION, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, PLATTS

BHP, Rio investors not tempted by rising yield

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 14-Jul-15

The share prices of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have fallen sharply in the last 12 months, although they continue to offer strong dividend yields. However, institutional investors such as the Australian Foundation Investment Company and Argo Investments are not capitalising on the rising yield to increase their shareholdings. Michelle Lopez of Aberdeen Asset Management says a key issue for investors is whether BHP can sustain its progressive dividend policy.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Professional indemnity premiums likely to rise

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 13-Jul-15

The cost of professional indemnity insurance for Australian small and medium businesses fell by 18 per cent in 2013-14, according to BizCover. Factors such as strong competition in the sector and excess insurance capacity also resulted in premiums falling by an additional two per cent in 2014-15. However, experts note the growing trend for mergers and acquisitions in the global insurance sector, which may put upward pressure on premiums.

CORPORATES
BIZCOVER PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, ACE INSURANCE COMPANY, CHUBB CORPORATION, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, XL GROUP, CATLIN GROUP, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Sydney Airport passenger growth predicted to lag

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 10-Jul-15

Moody’s says Brisbane and Melbourne airports are best placed to benefit from stronger international growth, while the international passenger growth rate at Sydney has fallen behind forecasts. It remains Australia’s main international gateway, but Melbourne and Brisbane are experiencing better growth rates because of new services to those airports. Moody’s says airports with a greater reliance on domestic travellers, such as Perth and Adelaide, face a more challenging outlook in passenger volume trends.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, BRISBANE AIRPORT CORPORATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC AIRPORTS (MELBOURNE) PTY LTD, ADELAIDE AIRPORT LIMITED, WESTRALIA AIRPORTS CORPORATION PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AIR CANADA

BHP and Rio braced and ready for iron ore’s ‘new normal’

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Original article by Amanda Saunders, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 10-Jul-15

Some analysts believe that the iron ore price could fall below $US40 per tonne as production ramps up in Australia and abroad. The price of the steel input fell below $US45/tonne on 8 July 2015, prompting speculation about the viability of some high-cost smaller iron ore miners. Andrew Harding, the head of Rio Tinto’s iron ore division, remains upbeat about the long-term outlook for the commodity. He says iron ore is now trading at around its long-term average, and argues that record high prices were not sustainable.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, VALE SA, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD