BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Mine closures forecast as iron ore prices plunge

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Original article by Amanda Saunders, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 9-Jul-15

Katana Asset Management’s Romano Sala Tenna expects a number of Australian iron ore mines to cease production in the next 12 months. He says some of the cost reduction strategies utilised in the last year are unsustainable, and also notes the dearth of capital investment in many iron ore mines. Pengana Capital’s Tim Schroeders also has doubts as to whether cost-cutting measures can be sustained in the long-term. The iron ore price has fallen below $US50 per tonne, which may put further pressure on smaller producers.

CORPORATES
KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, PENGANA CAPITAL LIMITED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Crown faces earnings fall after Macau weakness

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 8-Jul-15

Australian-listed Crown Resorts’ casino joint venture in Macau recorded a 36.2 per cent decline in gross gaming revenue in June 2015, with revenue falling for the last 13 months. However, the group’s casino in Melbourne is performing well. Deutsche Bank has reduced its 2014-15 earnings forecast for Crown Resorts from $A512.1m to $A481.2m.

CORPORATES
CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, MELCO CROWN ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED, CROWN MELBOURNE LIMITED, CROWNBET, BETEASY PTY LTD, ASPINALL’S CLUB LIMITED, BETFAIR AUSTRALASIA PTY LTD, BETFAIR AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, ECHO ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX EGP

Oz Minerals poised to pounce: Citi

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 7-Jul-15

Citigroup has identified a number of Australian-listed mining groups that could potentially pursue acquisitions in the near-term. They include OZ Minerals, Independence Group, Iluka Resources, Mount Gibson Iron and South32. Citigroup also believes that there is the potential for South32 to become a takeover target, along with Sandfire Resources, Whitehaven Coal, Western Areas, Iluka Resources and Regis Resources.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL – ASX SFR, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, WESTERN AREAS LIMITED – ASX WSA, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, LA MANCHA RESOURCES INCORPORATED, KENMARE RESOURCES PLC, X2 RESOURCES PARTNERS LP, GLENCORE PLC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, NORTH LIMITED, ALCAN INCORPORATED, RIVERSDALE MINING LIMITED

Strong start to year buoys optimism

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 6-Jul-15

Data from IRESS shows that equity trading volumes on the Australian Securities Exchange and Chi-X Australia have totalled around $A1.5bn so far in 2015. This compares with about $A1.2bn for the same period in 2014. Bruce Rolph of Citigroup expects trading volumes to remain strong in the second half of the calendar year, citing factors such as the potential for greater mergers and acquisitions activity and the August reporting season.

CORPORATES
IRESS LIMITED – ASX IRE, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, CHI-X AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GREENSTONE LIMITED, IVE GROUP LIMITED, CARTER HOLT HARVEY LIMITED

Local juniors under pressure after iron ore price slide

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 6-Jul-15

The price of iron ore was trading at $US55.26 per tonne on 3 July 2015, having surrendered the bulk of recent gains during the week. UBS estimates that the break-even price for many smaller listed iron ore producers is just below the current price of iron ore, including BC Iron, Atlas Iron and Arrium. Glyn Lawcock of UBS notes that smaller iron ore miners have significantly reduced their costs since late 2014, and he expects further cost reductions in the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WOOD MACKENZIE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Debt-free Pac Brands upgrades profit

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 3-Jul-15

Shares in Pacific Brands gained $A0.165 to close at $A0.49 on 2 July 2015, after the clothing and homewares group lifted its earnings forecast. Pacific Brands’ revised guidance is for 2014-15 underlying EBIT to be within the range of $A63m to $A65m, compared with market expectations of about $A60.1m. Meanwhile, asset sales have allowed the group to be free of debt for the first time since its sharemarket debut in 2004.

CORPORATES
PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX PBG, BONDS INDUSTRIES LIMITED, SHERIDAN AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HARD YAKKA, VOLLEY, GROSBY FOOTWEAR, KING GEE CLOTHING COMPANY, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, EVERLAST PTY LTD, SLAZENGER, DUNLOP SPORT, ANCHORAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, IBML CAPITAL PTY LTD, THE PAS GROUP LIMITED – ASX PGR, DESIGNWORKS LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LEGG MASON ASSET MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ tipped to exit Asia banks

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 3-Jul-15

The ANZ Bank currently has a lower common equity tier 1 capital ratio than its peers, although at 8.7 per cent it is comfortably above the minimum requirement. However, Andrew Triggs of Deutsche Bank expects ANZ to offload some of its stakes in Asian banks in order to lift its capital ratio. He estimates that selling stakes in three of these banks – as well as the Esanda business – could boost ANZ’s capital ratio to more than 10 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, PT PANIN BANK, AMBANK BERHAD, BANK OF TIANJIN COMPANY LIMITED, SHANGHAI RURAL COMMERCIAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, GREAT WESTERN BANK, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP

A-REITs have a good year but a tough month

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 38 : 2-Jul-15

Australian real estate investment trusts generally performed well during 2014-15, although support for the sector turned bearish in the final month of the fiscal year. DEXUS Property Group, Mirvac Group and GPT Group in particular were heavily sold down in June 2015. BT Investment Management’s Julia Forrest expects mergers and acquisition activity to be a key driver for the sector in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, INVESTA PROPERTY GROUP, DOW JONES EQUITY ALL REIT TOTAL RETURN INDEX, MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORPORATION, BLOOMBERG LP, OMAN INVESTMENT FUND, FORTRESS CAPITAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COLES GROUP LIMITED, GIC REAL ESTATE PTE LTD

Banks among those at risk of downgrade

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 30-Jun-15

Citigroup has identified a number of Australian companies that could potentially issue earnings downgrades during the upcoming reporting season. They include Myer Holdings, BlueScope Steel, Fairfax Media, Bank of Queensland and Boart Longyear. Several companies have already issued earnings downgrades, including Flight Centre, Woolworths and SEEK. However, Citigroup believes that Caltex Australia and Wesfarmers could upgrade their earnings expectations.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, BOART LONGYEAR LIMITED – ASX BLY, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX PBG, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, APN NEWS AND MEDIA LIMITED – ASX APN, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, REECE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX REH, McMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED – ASX MMS, TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED – ASX TME, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED – ASX SPK, ECHO ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX EGP, GWA GROUP LIMITED – ASX GWA, NEXTDC LIMITED – ASX NXT, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC

Woolworths serves up Thomas Dux

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 19 : 30-Jun-15

Australian-listed Woolworths has declined to comment on reports that it is seeking a buyer for its chain of Thomas Dux stores. However, it is believed to be aiming for a sale price of $A10m-$A20m for the grocery chain, which specialises on gourmet foods and comprises 10 outlets. Woolworths Holdings is seen as a possible buyer for the chain, although the South Africa-based group has denied that it has made overtures regarding Thomas Dux.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, THOMAS DUX GROCER, WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED, DAVID JONES LIMITED, ABOUT LIFE PTY LTD, JONES THE GROCER, L CAPITAL ASIA, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SA, BRIGHT FOOD GROUP COMPANY LIMITED, MANASSEN FOODS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SIMON JOHNSON PURVEYOR OF QUALITY FOODS PTY LTD, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES