BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

South32 may be a target

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 30-Jun-15

X2 Resources is estimated to have access to about $US13bn worth of equity and debt to finance acquisitions in the resources sector. BHP Billiton spin-off South32 is regarded as a potential target for X2, which is headed by former Xstrata CEO Mick Davis. South32 shares have shed around 20 per cent since the demerger, and it could well become a takeover target if the downturn is sustained. Glencore is also seen as a possible bidder for South32.

CORPORATES
X2 RESOURCES PARTNERS LP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, GLENCORE PLC, NOBLE GROUP LIMITED, TPG CAPITAL LP, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, LIBERUM CAPITAL LIMITED, XSTRATA AG

GWA Group cuts earnings guidance

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Original article by Tim Binsted
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 30-Jun-15

GWA Group has advised that it will write down the value of the Gliderol garage doors business by around $A25m in its 2014-15 accounts. GWA has agreed to sell the business to Reliance Doors for about $A7m, after buying it for $A42m in 2010. Meanwhile, GWA now anticipates that its trading EBIT for the financial year will be within the range of $A67m to $A69m, compared with earlier guidance of about $A70m.

CORPORATES
GWA GROUP LIMITED – ASX GWA, GLIDEROL ROLLER DOORS PTY LTD, RELIANCE DOORS PTY LTD, DUX HOT WATER, BRIVIS, CAROMA INDUSTRIES LIMITED, GAINSBOROUGH, FOWLER, HUNTER GREEN PTY LTD

Australian deal activity tipped to reach next peak in 2018

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 30-Jun-15

The value of completed mergers and acquisitions in Australia is expected to total $US74.1bn ($A96.1bn) in 2015, according to a report by Oxford Economics. This compares with $US73.7bn in 2014. The report, which was produced on behalf of law firm Baker & McKenzie, also forecasts that the value of local M&A deals will top $US126.3bn in 2018, followed by a fall in the next two years. Meanwhile, some $US2.4bn ($A3.1bn) worth of IPOs are expected to be undertaken in Australia in 2015, with IPO activity rising to $US6.6bn in 2018.

CORPORATES
OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, BAKER AND McKENZIE, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, GRANT SAMUEL AND ASSOCIATES PTY LTD

More mining collapses ‘inevitable’

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 29-Jun-15

KordaMentha’s Scott Langdon expects more Australian mining services groups to experience financial problems in 2015. He says privately-owned firms whose turnover is below $A50m are most vulnerable to insolvency. However, Langdon adds that investors and lenders will seek alternatives to insolvency such as debt restructuring deals. He also forecasts an increase in cost reduction measures in the resources sector, such as staff and wage cuts, as well as the departure of some CEOs.

CORPORATES
KORDA MENTHA AND COLLEAGUES PTY LTD, BRADKEN LIMITED – ASX BKN, BIS INDUSTRIES LIMITED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, SIGDO KOPPERS SA, CHAMP PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD

Share price slumps after profit warning

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 24-Jun-15

Australian-listed Flight Centre Travel Group has advised that its 2014-15 underlying profit before tax will be within the range of $A355m to $A365m. Its previous guidance was for earnings of $A360m to $A390m, with the downgrade attributed to factors such as competition from online travel groups and slowing growth in Australia’s domestic travel market. Flight Centre shares closed nearly 14 per cent lower at $A37.51 on 23 June 2015.

CORPORATES
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, AIRBNB AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BOOKING.COM BV, PRICELINE.COM, GAINSDALE PTY LTD, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED

Treasury forecasts ‘big’ growth in wine sales to China

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Original article by Angus Grigg
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 23-Jun-15

Treasury Wine Estates is upbeat about its prospects in the Chinese market. Robert Foye, the group’s MD for Asia, expects China to be Treasury’s third-biggest source of profits and revenue within five years. He believes that Treasury’s annual sales in Asia could potentially grow by 15-20 per cent over this period. Treasury is also likely to benefit from the Australia-China free trade agreement.

CORPORATES
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, WOLF BLASS WINES PTY LTD, PENFOLDS WINES PTY LTD

Scene could be set for another capacity war

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 23-Jun-15

Qantas and Virgin Australia both increased their capacity on domestic routes in recent years, which kept a lid on airfares. However, new data shows that airfares began rising again in 2014, after the two carriers slowed the rate at which they added new aircraft to their fleets. Little growth is expected in either fleet in 2015, but a report produced by 4th Dimension and the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation notes that it would not take much for them to engage in a renewed "capacity war".

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, 4TH DIMENSION, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, CENTRE FOR ASIA PACIFIC AVIATION, JETSTAR AIRLINES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT. BUREAU OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND REGIONAL ECONOMICS, ANSETT AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Take-off in US tourists tipped

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 22-Jun-15

Tourism Australia has secured a new marketing deal with Virgin Australia Holdings, after first joining forces to promote Australia in 2012. The two groups will jointly spend $A50m to promote the nation, with the US to be targeted initially. Meanwhile, Virgin CEO John Borghetti anticipates an upturn in tourists from the US due to the lower value of the Australian dollar. Tourism Australia has also renewed its marketing deal with Etihad.

CORPORATES
TOURISM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, ETIHAD AIRWAYS, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, DELTA AIR LINES, AMERICAN AIRLINES INCORPORATED

Woolies investors fear more pain before gain

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 12 : 19-Jun-15

Fund managers and shareholders are concerned about the possible actions that will be taken by the successor to Woolworths CEO Grant O’Brien in a bid to turn around its fortunes. These include reduced profit margins and asset writedowns. Ben Gilbert of UBS is concerned that Woolworths may seek to combat falling sales by instigating a grocery price war, while Sheridan Hure of Aurora Funds Management warns that Woolworths’ shares may keep falling.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, EGON ZEHNDER INTERNATIONAL, STANDARD AND POOR’S (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Coal M&A on hold as price falls predicted

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 17-Jun-15

Anglo American, Vale and Peabody Energy are among the companies that are believed to be keen to sell some of their coal mines in Australia. Coal Ventures director Bede Boyle suggests that New Hope Coal, Glencore and private equity firms are the most likely contenders to buy coal assets. However, Marian Hookham of IHS Coal says many potential buyers appear to be biding their time on expectations of further weakness in the price of coal.

CORPORATES
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, VALE SA, NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX NHC, GLENCORE PLC, INTERNATIONAL COAL VENTURES LIMITED, IHS COAL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, ITOCHU CORPORATION, SUMISHO COAL AUSTRALIA PTY LTD