BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

More mining collapses ‘inevitable’

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 29-Jun-15

KordaMentha’s Scott Langdon expects more Australian mining services groups to experience financial problems in 2015. He says privately-owned firms whose turnover is below $A50m are most vulnerable to insolvency. However, Langdon adds that investors and lenders will seek alternatives to insolvency such as debt restructuring deals. He also forecasts an increase in cost reduction measures in the resources sector, such as staff and wage cuts, as well as the departure of some CEOs.

CORPORATES
KORDA MENTHA AND COLLEAGUES PTY LTD, BRADKEN LIMITED – ASX BKN, BIS INDUSTRIES LIMITED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, SIGDO KOPPERS SA, CHAMP PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD

Share price slumps after profit warning

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 24-Jun-15

Australian-listed Flight Centre Travel Group has advised that its 2014-15 underlying profit before tax will be within the range of $A355m to $A365m. Its previous guidance was for earnings of $A360m to $A390m, with the downgrade attributed to factors such as competition from online travel groups and slowing growth in Australia’s domestic travel market. Flight Centre shares closed nearly 14 per cent lower at $A37.51 on 23 June 2015.

CORPORATES
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, AIRBNB AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BOOKING.COM BV, PRICELINE.COM, GAINSDALE PTY LTD, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED

Treasury forecasts ‘big’ growth in wine sales to China

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Original article by Angus Grigg
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 23-Jun-15

Treasury Wine Estates is upbeat about its prospects in the Chinese market. Robert Foye, the group’s MD for Asia, expects China to be Treasury’s third-biggest source of profits and revenue within five years. He believes that Treasury’s annual sales in Asia could potentially grow by 15-20 per cent over this period. Treasury is also likely to benefit from the Australia-China free trade agreement.

CORPORATES
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, WOLF BLASS WINES PTY LTD, PENFOLDS WINES PTY LTD

Scene could be set for another capacity war

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 23-Jun-15

Qantas and Virgin Australia both increased their capacity on domestic routes in recent years, which kept a lid on airfares. However, new data shows that airfares began rising again in 2014, after the two carriers slowed the rate at which they added new aircraft to their fleets. Little growth is expected in either fleet in 2015, but a report produced by 4th Dimension and the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation notes that it would not take much for them to engage in a renewed "capacity war".

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, 4TH DIMENSION, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, CENTRE FOR ASIA PACIFIC AVIATION, JETSTAR AIRLINES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT. BUREAU OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND REGIONAL ECONOMICS, ANSETT AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Take-off in US tourists tipped

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 22-Jun-15

Tourism Australia has secured a new marketing deal with Virgin Australia Holdings, after first joining forces to promote Australia in 2012. The two groups will jointly spend $A50m to promote the nation, with the US to be targeted initially. Meanwhile, Virgin CEO John Borghetti anticipates an upturn in tourists from the US due to the lower value of the Australian dollar. Tourism Australia has also renewed its marketing deal with Etihad.

CORPORATES
TOURISM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, ETIHAD AIRWAYS, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, DELTA AIR LINES, AMERICAN AIRLINES INCORPORATED

Woolies investors fear more pain before gain

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 12 : 19-Jun-15

Fund managers and shareholders are concerned about the possible actions that will be taken by the successor to Woolworths CEO Grant O’Brien in a bid to turn around its fortunes. These include reduced profit margins and asset writedowns. Ben Gilbert of UBS is concerned that Woolworths may seek to combat falling sales by instigating a grocery price war, while Sheridan Hure of Aurora Funds Management warns that Woolworths’ shares may keep falling.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, EGON ZEHNDER INTERNATIONAL, STANDARD AND POOR’S (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Coal M&A on hold as price falls predicted

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 17-Jun-15

Anglo American, Vale and Peabody Energy are among the companies that are believed to be keen to sell some of their coal mines in Australia. Coal Ventures director Bede Boyle suggests that New Hope Coal, Glencore and private equity firms are the most likely contenders to buy coal assets. However, Marian Hookham of IHS Coal says many potential buyers appear to be biding their time on expectations of further weakness in the price of coal.

CORPORATES
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, VALE SA, NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX NHC, GLENCORE PLC, INTERNATIONAL COAL VENTURES LIMITED, IHS COAL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, ITOCHU CORPORATION, SUMISHO COAL AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Pockets full of dollars: M&A rise for Japan

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 16-Jun-15

Corporate Japan is becoming increasing active in global mergers and acquisitions in 2015. Data from Dealogic shows that the value of such deals has topped $US50bn to date. The CEO of ANZ Bank’s Japanese operations, Peter Davis, expects the nation’s financial services providers to seek further acquisition opportunities in Australia. Meanwhile, he notes that relatively few Australian companies are pursuing growth in Japan.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEALOGIC HOLDINGS PLC, TOKIO MARINE AND FIRE INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED, HCC INSURANCE, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, JAPAN POST COMPANY LIMITED, THE DAI-ICHI MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED, TAL LIMITED, NIPPON LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED, DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, MIZUHO BANK LIMITED, SUMITOMO MITSUI BANKING CORPORATION, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, MITSUI AND COMPANY LIMITED, SUMITOMO CORPORATION, MARUBENI CORPORATION, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION

Myer C-suite poised to slash asset values

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 11-Jun-15

The market capitalisation of department store group Myer Holdings is $A795m at present, but the value of its intangible assets exceeds $A930m. Bradley King of Armytage Private suggests that Myer’s new management team could opt for intangible assets and inventory writedowns, while he says a capital raising may also be an option. Recent additions to Myer’s management ranks include new CFO Grant Devonport.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, ARMYTAGE PRIVATE LIMITED, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED – ASX VRL, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT

Big four won’t need to seek capital: analysts

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 11-Jun-15

JP Morgan has suggested that Australia’s four major banks will have to undertake equity raisings totalling $A14bn to comply with proposed capital requirements. However, Citigroup believes that the banks can comply with any changes to capital rules via their dividend reinvestment plans. National Australia Bank recently raised $A5.5bn via a rights issue.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS. BASEL COMMITTEE ON BANKING SUPERVISION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA