BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Pockets full of dollars: M&A rise for Japan

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 16-Jun-15

Corporate Japan is becoming increasing active in global mergers and acquisitions in 2015. Data from Dealogic shows that the value of such deals has topped $US50bn to date. The CEO of ANZ Bank’s Japanese operations, Peter Davis, expects the nation’s financial services providers to seek further acquisition opportunities in Australia. Meanwhile, he notes that relatively few Australian companies are pursuing growth in Japan.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEALOGIC HOLDINGS PLC, TOKIO MARINE AND FIRE INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED, HCC INSURANCE, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, JAPAN POST COMPANY LIMITED, THE DAI-ICHI MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED, TAL LIMITED, NIPPON LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED, DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, MIZUHO BANK LIMITED, SUMITOMO MITSUI BANKING CORPORATION, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, MITSUI AND COMPANY LIMITED, SUMITOMO CORPORATION, MARUBENI CORPORATION, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION

Myer C-suite poised to slash asset values

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 11-Jun-15

The market capitalisation of department store group Myer Holdings is $A795m at present, but the value of its intangible assets exceeds $A930m. Bradley King of Armytage Private suggests that Myer’s new management team could opt for intangible assets and inventory writedowns, while he says a capital raising may also be an option. Recent additions to Myer’s management ranks include new CFO Grant Devonport.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, ARMYTAGE PRIVATE LIMITED, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED – ASX VRL, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT

Big four won’t need to seek capital: analysts

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 11-Jun-15

JP Morgan has suggested that Australia’s four major banks will have to undertake equity raisings totalling $A14bn to comply with proposed capital requirements. However, Citigroup believes that the banks can comply with any changes to capital rules via their dividend reinvestment plans. National Australia Bank recently raised $A5.5bn via a rights issue.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS. BASEL COMMITTEE ON BANKING SUPERVISION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

M&A outlook is optimistic

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 10-Jun-15

Data from Dealogic shows that some $US59.3bn ($A77.6bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced in Australia so far in 2015. This includes $US15.1bn worth of offshore deals by local companies. Anthony Sweetman of UBS is upbeat about the outlook for M&A activity in the second half of 2015, while Michael Barker of law firm King & Wood Mallesons also anticipates a bullish M&A market in the second half.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, JAPAN POST COMPANY LIMITED, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, SIRIUS RESOURCES NL – ASX SIR, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, GE CAPITAL AUSTRALIA, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, GRANT SAMUEL AND ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL

South32 faces first asset impairment

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 10-Jun-15

Australian-listed South32 is reviewing the valuation its 60 per cent stake in the Samancor manganese joint venture, prompting speculation of a potential asset write-down. Deutsche Bank has estimated that South32’s manganese operations will account for 11 per cent of the BHP Billiton spin-off’s EBITDA for fiscal 2016. South32 shares closed $A0.05 lower at $A2.09 on 9 June 2015.

CORPORATES
SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Networks rely on sports for ad dollars

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 10-Jun-15

Concerns about an uncertain outlook for the advertising market prompted investors to sell down Australian media stocks on 9 June 2015. Nine Entertainment Company has partially attributed an earnings downgrade to slowing ad revenue. Ben Willee of Spinach Advertising notes that TV ad revenue is being affected by the growing use of mobile devices to access media content, while Starcom MediaVest Group CEO Chris Nolan says sports broadcasts are becoming a key source of viewers and ad revenue for TV networks.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SPINACH ADVERTISING PTY LTD, STARCOM MEDIAVEST GROUP, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, OPTIMUM MEDIA DIRECTION PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD

Shareholder backs Nine despite downgrade

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 9-Jun-15

Nine Entertainment Company has attributed a profit downgrade to a subdued TV advertising market in the second half of 2014-15. The media group has advised that its full-year EBITDA will be within the range of $A285m to $A290m, compared with earlier guidance of $A311m. Entcho Raykovski of Deutsche Bank expects free-to-air ad revenue to be three per cent lower in the second half.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WARNER BROS

Metcash is crunched in retail wars

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 5-Jun-15

Australian-listed Metcash has indicated that its financial accounts for 2014-15 will include asset write-downs totalling $A640m. The grocery group has also advised that dividends will be put on hold for 18 months. The revelations prompted a sharp fall in Metcash’s share price, which finished $A0.245 lower at $A1.14 on 4 June 2015. Metcash expects its full-year underlying EBIT to be within its forecast range of $A315m to $A330m.

CORPORATES
METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, INDEPENDENT GROCERS OF AUSTRALIA, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, COSTCO WHOLESALE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOD AND GROCERY COUNCIL, McPHERSON’S LIMITED – ASX MCP

Ainsworth looks to lift its international game

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jun-15

Ainsworth Game Technology has advised that its 2014-15 after-tax net profit will be line with the previous financial year. The listed gaming machine maker expects revenue to be two per cent lower at about $A240m, citing disappointing sales in Australia during the second half. CEO Danny Gladstone says the group will focus on expanding its international business, noting that there is limited opportunity for growth in the Australian market.

CORPORATES
AINSWORTH GAME TECHNOLOGY LIMITED – ASX AGI, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL

Retailer profits under pressure

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 4-Jun-15

UBS and the Australian Food & Grocery Council have produced a report which shows that supermarket groups’ profit margins have increased at the expense of suppliers over the last five years. However, the report concludes that rising competition in the grocery sector is set to shift the balance in favour of suppliers. Woolworths boasts a margin of eight per cent, which is sigificantly higher than the global average.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOD AND GROCERY COUNCIL, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD