BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Battle for eyeballs to play out ‘within 12 months’

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 4-Jun-15

FetchTV CEO Scott Lorson estimates that up to five million Australian households could potentially take out a subscription to a streaming video service. He does not expect any of the rival groups to be able to operate at a loss for very long, and forecasts that they will succeed or fail within the next year. However, other media industry experts say the emerging sector is a long-term proposition.

CORPORATES
FETCHTV PTY LTD, QUICKFLIX LIMITED – ASX QFX, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED

Default fund choice aired

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 4-Jun-15

The financial system inquiry concluded that Australian superannuation fees are too high, costing members about $A20bn a year. Inquiry chairman David Murray has told a conference of the need for increased competition in the sector in order to reduce fees, while Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has flagged possible changes to the default super fund regime to boost competition. However, industry and retail super fund executives disagree on whether such reforms will result in lower fees.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED, INDUSTRY FUND SERVICES PTY LTD, RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, COMMITTEE FOR SUSTAINABLE RETIREMENT INCOMES, ERNST AND YOUNG, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS

Hepatitis A recall takes bite from Patties profit

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 4-Jun-15

Patties Foods has advised that it is likely to post a 2014-15 net profit of $A15m, down from $A16.7m previously. Earnings for the current year are expected to be reduced by about $A1.5m due to a frozen berries product recall arising from a hepatitis A scare. CEO Steven Chaur says the group now subjects its berries to a stringent testing regime.

CORPORATES
PATTIES FOODS LIMITED – ASX PFL, NANNA’S, CREATIVE GOURMET, FOUR ‘N TWENTY PIES

Virtus shares drop 20pc on profit downgrade

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 3-Jun-15

Australian-listed IVF group Virtus Health has slightly downgraded its net profit forecast for 2014-15. The group indicated in February 2015 that its market share was 45.6 per cent, but it advised on 2 June that bulk-billing providers in New South Wales have eroded its market share. Virtus shares closed 19.92 per cent lower at $A6.11.

CORPORATES
VIRTUS HEALTH LIMITED – ASX VRT, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD

Cold snap heats up store clearance sales

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 3-Jun-15

The mid-season clearance sales of Australian retailers are expected to benefit from a chilly start to winter across much of the country. The cold weather is likely to boost demand for warm clothing, allowing department stores and specialty retailers to reduce their winter inventory. Myer has commenced its clearance sale more than a week ahead of schedule, and aims to sell about $150m worth of stock, while David Jones is offering big discounts in its mid-year sale.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, DAVID JONES LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED, PORTMANS PTY LTD, SABA, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, DAVID LAWRENCE, CUE, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COLES GROUP LIMITED, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TOP RYDE SHOPPING CENTRE

China scopes local iron ore

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 2-Jun-15

The iron ore price is trading at about $US63 per tonne, having shed nearly 50 per cent in the last year. Adam Handley of law firm Minter Ellison notes that the sharp fall in the price of the steel input has prompted Chinese companies to consider mergers and acquisitions in Australia, as well as debt and equity deals with embattled producers. He adds that Chinese investors have become more willing to pursue hostile takeovers.

CORPORATES
MINTER ELLISON, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CITIC LIMITED, SHANGHAI BAOSTEEL GROUP CORPORATION, RECORD POINT PTY LTD, SINO IRON PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, GINDALBIE METALS LIMITED – ASX GBG, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN

Buy shares, not bonds, says Morgan Stanley

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 2-Jun-15

Morgan Stanley forecasts that Australian shares will deliver a return of 5.8 per cent over the next 12 months and 10.3 per cent in the longer-term. Meanwhile, the firm expects international shares to achieve a short-term return of 15.4 per cent and 10.3 per cent in the long-term. However, Morgan Stanley is bearish about the outlook for Australian bonds and global sovereign bonds.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT

Insurer’s premiums cast cloud

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Original article by Tim Binsted
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 1-Jun-15

Morgan Stanley’s Daniel Toohey values Medibank Private shares at $A1.85, compared with the issue price of $A2 for retail investors in the 2014 IPO. Morgan Stanley forecasts that Medibank’s lapse rate will rise from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, while Toohey says the growth of its budget-priced ahm brand may come at the expense of the main brand’s customer base. Medibank’s earnings are also likely to be affected by customers opting to reduce their health insurance coverage in order to save money.

CORPORATES
MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, AHM HEALTH INSURANCE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Fortescue CFO hits back at Vale

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 1-Jun-15

The break-even price for iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group was about $US60 per tonne in late 2014, but the group aims to reduce this to $US41 during the next three months. CFO Stephen Pearce says Fortescue expects its break-even price to fall slightly below that of Brazilian rival Vale in the near-term. He has also rejected suggestions by the China Iron & Steel Association’s Li Xinchuang that Fortescue will need to take on an equity partner.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

Blackley back on board for SCM M&A bonanza

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 1-Jun-15

Southern Cross Media Group chairman Peter Bush expects mergers in Australia’s media sector if cross-media ownership laws are changed. He says the industry expertise of new CEO Grant Blackley will be an asset when dealing with the new media landscape. Bush adds that one of Blackley’s key tasks will be to assess the group’s "peak value". Blackley is a former CEO of the Ten Network.

CORPORATES
SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FREE TV AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KEYSTONE GROUP PTY LTD