BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Analysts wary of Woodside Petroleum hiking Oil Search offer price

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 16-Oct-15

Woodside Petroleum’s revenue rose by 21 per cent to $US1.09bn ($A1.5bn) in the September 2015 quarter, although it fell by 44.6 per cent year-on-year due to the impact of the lower crude oil price. Production was 26 per cent higher than the June quarter, at 25.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. Meanwhile, some analysts have downplayed the potential for Woodside to increase its takeover offer for Oil Search.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GMP SECURITIES LP, CHEVRON CORPORATION

BHP may be tempted by ailing mining assets

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 14-Oct-15

Todd Warren of Colonial First State Global Asset Management says BHP Billiton seems to be becoming more keen to pursue mergers and acquisitions. A number of rival mining groups are believed to be considering asset sales, which could present buying opportunities for BHP. It already holds a 33.75 per cent stake in Glencore’s Antamina copper mine in Peru, which is one of the assets that Glencore may divest. BHP was among the bidders for Barrick Gold Corporation’s Zaldivar copper mine in Chile.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, GLENCORE PLC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ANTOFAGASTA PLC, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, BP PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, TECK CORPORATION, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED

Gyngell may be switching channels

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Original article by Elizabeth Knight
The Age – Page: 21 : 13-Oct-15

The contract of Nine Entertainment Company CEO David Gyngell expires in November 2016. He is required to give 12 months’ notice if he does not want to renew the contract, and is widely tipped to do so. Nine has been restructured under Gyngell, selling assets and expanding into the subscription video-on-demand sector. Should the Australian Government implement changes to cross-media ownership laws, his last major deal at Nine could potentially be the acquisition of a regional affiliate or a non-TV media asset.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NINE LIVE PTY LTD, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR

Woolworths ‘treasure chest’ ready to open

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Original article by Catie Low
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 9-Oct-15

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst David Errington estimates that Woolworths could unlock about $A3bn worth of capital by streamlining its operations. He argues that Woolworths should focus on its core food and liquor business, while retaining its gaming division and offloading Big W and exiting the loss-making Masters hardware joint venture. The Masters business in particular may come under scrutiny when Woolworths completes its board renewal process.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, LOWE’S COMPANIES INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, TESCO PLC, KELLOGG COMPANY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

BoQ chief glimpses a sunnier state for bank

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Original article by Shaun Drummond
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 9-Oct-15

Bank of Queensland has posted 2014-15 cash earnings of $A$357m, which is 19 per cent higher than previously. Revenue was 17 per cent higher at $A1.08bn, while its home loan book increase by nine per cent to $A25.6bn. The value of all loans rose by seven per cent to $A40.9bn in total. CEO Jon Sutton is upbeat about the regional bank’s earnings outlook, noting that it should benefit from factors such as new capital requirements for its larger peers.

CORPORATES
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CONTANGO ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, VIRGIN MONEY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Media reform unlikely to be a pot of gold

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 6-Oct-15

Citigroup analyst Justin Diddams does not expect changes to cross-media ownership laws to result in industry mergers that will deliver increased value for investors. He argues that any such mergers would be primarily aimed at reducing costs and ensuring the survival of media companies. The Commonwealth Bank’s Alice Bennett says Nine Entertainment Company is the most likely metropolitan network to pursue a merger deal with a regional broadcaster.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, MACQUARIE RADIO NETWORK LIMITED – ASX MRN, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Nine a potential winner

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 1-Oct-15

Credit Suisse believes that reforms to cross-media ownership laws are inevitable under new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Fraser McLeish of Credit Suisse says Nine Entertainment Company would be well-placed to acquire a regional broadcaster if the "reach rule" is abolished. Credit Suisse has a share price target of $A1.80 and an "outperform" rating on the stock.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Junior explorers under pressure

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 28-Sep-15

BDO estimates that about 20 per cent of the 780 smaller resources companies that are listed on the Australian sharemarket do not have active exploration programs. Smaller explorers spent an average of $A481,000 on exploration programs in the June 2015 quarter, compared with $A980,000 during the same period in 2013. Sherif Andrawes of BDO expects more junior explorers to go private or be subject to a reverse takeover.

CORPORATES
BDO AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Is Metcash worth more dead or alive?

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Original article by Adele Ferguson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 28-Sep-15

Metcash’s grocery wholesaling business accounts for more than 70 per cent of group earnings, but some experts have questioned whether the business will be viable in the long-term. The downturn in Metcash’s share price has prompted speculation that it may be targeted by private equity groups, with a view to a demerger. The IGA stores supplied by Metcash are also facing growing competition from Aldi, while allegations that some IGA stores have being underpaying their staff have emerged in the wake of the 7-Eleven scandal.

CORPORATES
METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, IGA, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, 7-ELEVEN STORES PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, FOODWORKS SUPERMARKET GROUP LIMITED, FOODLAND AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LUCKY 7 HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MITRE 10 LIMITED, DANKS HOLDINGS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 100 ACCUMULATION INDEX, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOD AND GROCERY COUNCIL, LION PTY LTD

Graincorp up on PM change

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 17-Sep-15

Shares in GrainCorp have risen by nearly nine per cent since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. There has been speculation that Archer Daniels Midland could make a new takeover bid for GrainCorp due to the leadership change. Archer’s previous bid in 2013 was blocked by Treasurer Joe Hockey on national interest grounds. Belinda Moore of Morgans Financial attributes the share price rally to expectations that the Federal Government will be more open to foreign investment under Turnbull.

CORPORATES
GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND COMPANY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA