BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Brighter skies give lift to Flight Centre

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 25-Feb-15

Australian-listed Flight Centre Travel Group has posted a 2014-15 interim underlying profit before tax of $A137.6m, which is 5.6 per cent lower than previously. The travel group had advised in late 2014 that its profit for the half-year would be between $A136m and $A142m. Flight Centre expects its underlying profit for the full year of $A360m to $A390m. Shareholders will receive a half-year dividend of $A0.55 per share

CORPORATES
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH

Strong M&A tipped for 2015

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 24-Feb-15

Data from Dealogic shows that some $US13.9bn ($A17.7bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been proposed in Australia so far in 2015. M&A experts are generally upbeat about the outlook for 2015, with Minter Ellison partner Ron Forster anticipating strong activity in the gold and iron ore sectors in particular. Karen Evans-Cullen of Clayton Utz notes that the downturn in the value of the Australian dollar may attract more bids from offshore groups

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MINTER ELLISON, CLAYTON UTZ, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TOL, JAPAN POST, NOVION PROPERTY GROUP – ASX NVN, FEDERATION CENTRES – ASX FDC, PORT OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. DEFENCE HOUSING AUSTRALIA, BOART LONGYEAR LIMITED – ASX BLY, CENTERBRIDGE PARTNERS LP, GRESHAM PARTNERS LIMITED, MIZUHO BANK LIMITED

Australia Post hopes $1-a-letter strategy can avoid loss

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Original article by Patrick Durkin, Tony Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Feb-15

Australia Post has reported a 2014-15 interim profit of $A98m, which is 56 per cent lower than previously. Its letters division made a loss of $A151m for the half-year, and Australia Post has forecast a group loss for the full year, which would be its first since 1982. CEO Ahmed Fahour has stressed the need for regulatory reform to ensure that its letters division is viable. Australia Post wants to adopt a two-tiered pricing structure for mail deliveries

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA POST, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS, JAPAN POST, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TOL, SINGAPORE POST PTE LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, COURIERS PLEASE, DHL CORPORATION, DEUTSCHE POST AG, UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INCORPORATED, FEDERAL EXPRESS CORPORATION, TNT

Cleaning frenzy buoys Godfreys

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Original article by Simon Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 24-Feb-15

Listed vacuum cleaner retailer Godfreys has posted a 20140-15 interim underlying pro-forma net profit of $A6.4m, with sales of $A90.6m. Godfreys has forecast a full-year profit of $A12.2m. CEO Tom Krulis notes that sales of cleaning products tend to be higher during the month of January, as consumers typically clean more often. He adds that Godfreys plans to expand its product range to include air purifiers

CORPORATES
GODFREYS GROUP LIMITED – ASX GFY, ARCADE FINANCE PTY LTD

BHP under pressure to lift returns

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 23-Feb-15

BHP Billiton has not reduced its dividend since 1988, and analysts generally agree that a reduced payout is unlikely when the resources giant releases its 2014-15 interim results on 24 February 2015. Paul Young of Deutsche Bank does not expect BHP to increase its dividend for at least another two years, arguing that it should focus on growth rather than improving returns to shareholders. Paul McTaggart of Credit Suisse also says a share buyback is unlikely in the next several years

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SOUTH32 LIMITED

Coal prices ‘unlikely’ to recover in 2015

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 20-Feb-15

ANZ Bank analysts Mark Pervan and Rajneet Kaur are bearish about the long-term outlook for the price of coal. ANZ has downgraded its forecast for coking coal to $US115 per tonne at the end of 2015 and $US130/per tonne at the end of 2018. It is currently trading at around $US117/tonne. Australia exported $A22.9bn worth of coking coal in 2013

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Seven West ‘well placed’ to recover despite $1bn write-down

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 19-Feb-15

Seven West Media has posted a 2014-15 interim net loss of $A994m. The result was marred by writedowns totalling $A1bn, including goodwill associated with its TV and print media assets. The group’s underlying net profit fell by 8.4 per cent to $A137.5m, with revenue totalling $A943m. Seven West’s TV business posted revenue of $A677m, which is one per cent lower than previously. Seven West anticipates an upturn in TV advertising revenue in the second half of 2014-15

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, BLOOMBERG LP, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, PACIFIC MAGAZINES PTY LTD, YAHOO!7 COMMUNICATIONS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Sonic hit by Medicare co-payment concerns

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 18-Feb-15

Sonic Healthcare has posted a 2014-15 interim profit of $A174m, which is 1.9 per cent lower than previously. EBITDA of $A344m was in line with the previous corresponding period, but CEO Colin Goldschmidt anticipates full-year growth of 2-4 per cent. He notes that uncertainty about Medicare co-payments affected the group’s pathology business in the first half. Sonic shares closed 0.2 per cent lower at $A18.91 on 17 February 2015

CORPORATES
SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, INDEPENDENT PRACTITIONER NETWORK LIMITED, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES. MEDICARE AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN ETHICAL INVESTMENT LIMITED – ASX AEF

Good news expected for Macquarie Group

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 17-Feb-15

Macquarie Group is tipped to post a 2014-15 profit of $A1.46bn, and there has been speculation that the group could again upgrade its earnings forecast. Macquarie upgraded its full-year earnings guidance in January, due to factors such as the lower Australian dollar and a high level of volatility in commodity prices. Macquarie posted a profit of $A1.27bn for the year to 31 March 2014. Its shares have gained 17.5 per cent so far in 2015

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 FINANCIALS INDEX, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, GE CAPITAL CORPORATION, JEFFERIES LLC, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Telstra chief hopeful that pay TV market will reach 70 per cent

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Original article by Max Mason, Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 16-Feb-15

Just 30 per cent of Australian households currently have access to subscription-based TV. Telstra CEO David Thodey is optimistic about the outlook for the sector, forecasting that the launch of video streaming services will lift market penetration to around 70 per cent. Thodey expects US-based Netflix, which will formally enter the Australian market in March 2015, will eventually introduce advertisements. He also refutes suggestions that Telstra will scrap its T-Box device

CORPORATES
TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, FETCHTV PTY LTD, STAN, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ