BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

$A unlikely to take shine off Lovisa

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 10-Feb-15

Lovisa Holdings has posted a 2014-25 interim net profit of $A12.3m, which is 66.2 per cent higher than previously. The fast-fashion jewellery retailer’s sales were 33.3 per cent higher at $A73.3 million. Lovisa’s earnings and sales for the half-year exceeded prospectus forecasts, and Dean Fergie of Cyan Investment Management says it is on track to meet its full-year forecasts. Lovisa shares closed $A0.035 higher at $A2.395 on 9 February 2015

CORPORATES
LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LOV, CYAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Shocks likely as weaker $A hits home

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 10-Feb-15

Shane Lee of CIMB notes that consensus forecasts for earnings per share in the February 2015 reporting season have not been unduly affected by the sharp fall in the value of the Australian dollar. CSL, Boral and Newcrest Mining are among the stocks that could potentially have benefited from the lower currency in the first half of 2014-15. Lee notes that Boral will have greater downside risk in fiscal 2016, when less of its foreign exposure will be hedged

CORPORATES
CIMB SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, PERSEUS MINING LIMITED – ASX PRU, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, TRANSFIELD SERVICES LIMITED – ASX TSE, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL – ASX SFR, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX

Insurers to weather revenue resistance

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 9-Feb-15

Jan van der Schalk of CLSA forecasts that Insurance Australia Group will post a 2014-15 interim cash net profit of $A591m. This compares with $A642m previously. Meanwhile, CLSA forecasts that QBE Insurance Group’s cash net profit for calendar 2014 will be $US933m ($A1.2bn). Australian insurers have benefited from cost-cutting and rising premiums in recent years

CORPORATES
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

‘Acquisitions the only way’ for South32

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 4-Feb-15

BHP Billiton’s proposed South32 spin-off is slated to debut on the Australian sharemarket by mid-2015. Deutsche Bank’s Paul Young has a valuation of $US13bn ($A16.7bn) on South32, and cautions that the group will have to pursue acquisitions as its scope for organic growth will be limited. He expects South32 to shun BHP’s progressive dividends policy in favour of a payout ratio of 30-40 per cent

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOUTH AFRICA COAL

Seven ‘too small to take out Beach’

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Feb-15

Seven Group Holdings has built up a 13.4 per cent stake in Beach Energy, after initially purchasing 3.5 per cent of the group’s shares in late January 2015. The share raid has prompted speculation of a takeover play, but Tim Mann of Morningstar believes that Seven Group lacks sufficient financial firepower to effect a takeover. Martin Kronborg of Credit Suisse suggests that the move may be in expectation that Beach will attract another suitor

CORPORATES
SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, WESTRAC HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BAILLIEU HOLST LIMITED

Caterpillar’s sales crawl backwards hits Seven

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 18 : 29-Jan-15

The profit for the final three months of calendar 2014 at US mining machinery manufacturer Caterpillar has fallen 25%, prompting it to also predict declines of 9% and 22% respectively for sales and earnings per share in 2015. The slump due to the ending of the resources boom will have a negative impact on Australian-listed conglomerate Seven Group Holdings as well. It owns the WesTrac distributor of Caterpillar products in parts of Australia and China

CORPORATES
SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, CATERPILLAR INCORPORATED, WESTRAC HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Telstra tipped to lift mobile market share

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann
The Australian – Page: 17 : 27-Jan-15

Australian telcos Telstra and Singtel Optus now have access to more parts of the wireless frequency spectrum, enabling them to boost their 4G mobile telephony and internet offerings. The combined spending of $A2bn on the 700Mhz and 2.5Ghz bands will according to experts at Morgan Stanley trigger substantial growth in the number of subscribers using data plans for mobile devices such as tablet computers. Telstra in particular will benefit, and lift its market share to 54% during 2014-15. Users will experience more generous data allowances but few price falls

CORPORATES
TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED – ASX SGT, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, VODAFONE HUTCHISON AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Class actions: firms warned

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Original article by Marianna Papadakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Jan-15

The Australian class actions market is likely to grow. Herbert Smith Freehills partner Jason Betts says the profitability of the funding model makes the sector attractive to foreign litigation funders. Andrew Watson, the head of class actions at Maurice Blackburn, expects more such suits on behalf of investors

CORPORATES
IMF BENTHAM LIMITED – ASX IMF, AUSNET SERVICES LIMITED – ASX AST, LITIGATION FUNDING PARTNERS, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, ALLCO FINANCE GROUP LIMITED, MAURICE BLACKBURN PTY LTD, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, HARBOUR LITIGATION FUNDING LIMITED, COMPREHENSIVE LEGAL FUNDING LLC, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Murray report to lead to more M&A activity

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 20 : 22-Jan-15

Data from Thomson Reuters shows that the value of mergers and acquisitions in Australia’s financial services sector topped $US54bn in 2014, which is 52 per cent higher than previously. Meanwhile, the value of equity capital market deals rose by 14 per cent to $US5bn. Market watchers anticipate further deal-making activity in 2015, with some citing the upcoming release of the final report of the financial system inquiry as a key factor

CORPORATES
THOMSON REUTERS PLC, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC, INVESTEC BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GE CAPITAL AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BANK OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AXA ASIA PACIFIC HOLDINGS LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, SFG AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Oil prices to stay low for years, JPMorgan warns

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 : 21-Jan-15

JP Morgan has lowered its 2014-15 earnings forecast for Australian-listed resources group BHP Billiton to $US8.3bn ($A10.1bn), or $US1.2bn less than the consensus. A major factor is that JP Morgan also expects the global crude oil price to fall further, and not recover for two years. Brent crude is now tipped to trade at $US49 a barrel in 2015 and $US57 in 2016, compared with previous estimates of $US82 and $US88 respectively. However the Global Energy Fund of Investec Asset Management has taken advantage of the bargain buying opportunity to acquire stock in energy company Santos

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, INVESTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, INVESTEC GLOBAL ENERGY FUND, LUKOIL-NEFTEGAZSTROY, CNOOC LIMITED, CHINA NATIONAL OFFSHORE OIL CORPORATION, PETROBRAS, PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA