BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Telstra tipped to lift mobile market share

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann
The Australian – Page: 17 : 27-Jan-15

Australian telcos Telstra and Singtel Optus now have access to more parts of the wireless frequency spectrum, enabling them to boost their 4G mobile telephony and internet offerings. The combined spending of $A2bn on the 700Mhz and 2.5Ghz bands will according to experts at Morgan Stanley trigger substantial growth in the number of subscribers using data plans for mobile devices such as tablet computers. Telstra in particular will benefit, and lift its market share to 54% during 2014-15. Users will experience more generous data allowances but few price falls

CORPORATES
TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED – ASX SGT, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, VODAFONE HUTCHISON AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Class actions: firms warned

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Original article by Marianna Papadakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Jan-15

The Australian class actions market is likely to grow. Herbert Smith Freehills partner Jason Betts says the profitability of the funding model makes the sector attractive to foreign litigation funders. Andrew Watson, the head of class actions at Maurice Blackburn, expects more such suits on behalf of investors

CORPORATES
IMF BENTHAM LIMITED – ASX IMF, AUSNET SERVICES LIMITED – ASX AST, LITIGATION FUNDING PARTNERS, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, ALLCO FINANCE GROUP LIMITED, MAURICE BLACKBURN PTY LTD, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, HARBOUR LITIGATION FUNDING LIMITED, COMPREHENSIVE LEGAL FUNDING LLC, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Murray report to lead to more M&A activity

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 20 : 22-Jan-15

Data from Thomson Reuters shows that the value of mergers and acquisitions in Australia’s financial services sector topped $US54bn in 2014, which is 52 per cent higher than previously. Meanwhile, the value of equity capital market deals rose by 14 per cent to $US5bn. Market watchers anticipate further deal-making activity in 2015, with some citing the upcoming release of the final report of the financial system inquiry as a key factor

CORPORATES
THOMSON REUTERS PLC, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC, INVESTEC BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GE CAPITAL AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BANK OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AXA ASIA PACIFIC HOLDINGS LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, SFG AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Oil prices to stay low for years, JPMorgan warns

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 : 21-Jan-15

JP Morgan has lowered its 2014-15 earnings forecast for Australian-listed resources group BHP Billiton to $US8.3bn ($A10.1bn), or $US1.2bn less than the consensus. A major factor is that JP Morgan also expects the global crude oil price to fall further, and not recover for two years. Brent crude is now tipped to trade at $US49 a barrel in 2015 and $US57 in 2016, compared with previous estimates of $US82 and $US88 respectively. However the Global Energy Fund of Investec Asset Management has taken advantage of the bargain buying opportunity to acquire stock in energy company Santos

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, INVESTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, INVESTEC GLOBAL ENERGY FUND, LUKOIL-NEFTEGAZSTROY, CNOOC LIMITED, CHINA NATIONAL OFFSHORE OIL CORPORATION, PETROBRAS, PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA

Markets drive Macquarie to bumper $1.5bn

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 : 20-Jan-15

Investment banking firm Macquarie Group has again raised its 2014-15 profit forecast, for the second time in half a year, and now expects a result of up to $A1.52bn that would be close to an all-time high. The increase by between 10% and 20% is based on an improved trading environment as well as the decline in the Australian dollar foreign exchange rate. Experts note that Macquarie’s fixed-income, currencies and commodities operations perform better in times of heightened volatility. On 19 January 2015 the stock closed 5.4% higher at $A58.25

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD

Woodside flags cuts, write-downs

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 20 : 16-Jan-15

Woodside Petroleum has reported total sales of $US1.76bn for the final three months of 2014, while sales for the full year were 22.5 per cent higher at $US7.08bn. The oil and gas producer has warned of the potential for asset write-downs of between $US250m and $US400m as a result of the decline in the crude oil price. Woodside also expects to scale back its capital expenditure in 2015. Its shares closed 1.35 per cent lower at $A35.06 on 15 January

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MITSUI AND COMPANY LIMITED, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PAVILION ENERGY PTE LTD, TEMASEK HOLDINGS (PTE) LTD, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, APACHE CORPORATION

Chinese buyers eyeing food, dairy, says UBS

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Original article by Anthony Macdonald
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 18 : 14-Jan-15

David Chin of UBS expects Chinese companies to become more active in acquiring assets in Australia’s agribusiness sector. Chin notes that the issue of food security is becoming increasingly important in China, which is likely to prompt greater interest in Australia’s food and dairy products sectors, as well as rural properties. Chin also expects Chinese groups to be interested in the privatisation of Queensland and New South Wales electricity assets

CORPORATES
UBS AG, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, STATE GRID CORPORATION OF CHINA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Chinese coal quality rules may hit exporters

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 18 : 13-Jan-15

The ANZ Bank’s Mark Pervan says China’s move to impose quality-control restrictions on coal shipments may adversely affect Australian coal producers. China plans to crack down on the importation of coal whose ash content exceeds 16 per cent. Some 92 per cent of the 40.3 million tonnes of coal imported from Australia in the first 10 months of 2014 exceeded this threshold. Pervan notes that it is costly for producers to subject coal to greater processing in order to reduce its ash content

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CHINA. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION

Lower $A to fuel foreign profit growth

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 13-Jan-15

The eight per cent fall in the value of the Australian dollar during 2014 has been a boon for companies with a significant presence offshore, particularly in the US. The shares of companies with strong earnings in the US rose by 12.7 per cent in 2014, and Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley is upbeat about the earnings outlook for stocks such as Macquarie Group, CSL, Goodman Group and Ansell in 2015

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, ALS LIMITED – ASX ALQ, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, PHILO CAPITAL ADVISERS PTY LTD, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL

Bank profits to slow, says Fitch

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 13-Jan-15

Fitch Ratings notes that a decline in bad debts has contributed to the growth of Australian banks’ profits in recent years. However, a new report from Fitch warns that the banks are likely to face a rise in bad debts in 2015, which will result in lower profit growth. Factor such as rising competition in the home loans sector will also adversely affect growth in earnings

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS