BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Oil plunge will stir M&A when price settles

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 12-Jan-15

Santos, Senex Energy and Horizon Energy are among the Australian companies whose share prices have fallen sharply in response to the downturn in the crude oil price. Experts say lower valuations in the oil and gas sector is likely to prompt mergers and acquisitions activity, although some suggest that potential suitors will bide their time as the oil price and shares may fall further. The price of Brent oil closed at $US50.11 per barrel on 9 January 2015

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY, HORIZON OIL LIMITED – ASX HZN, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, TOTAL SA, INPEX CORPORATION, ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED – ASX ROC, FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX DLS, AMBASSADOR OIL AND GAS LIMITED – ASX AQO, MAGNUM HUNTER RESOURCES CORPORATION, NIDO PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX NDO, BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL, METGASCO LIMITED – ASX MEL, ELK PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX ELK, BP PLC, BP AMOCO PLC, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, CHEVRON CORPORATION, TEXACO INCORPORATED, BERNSTEIN AND ASSOCIATES, BRIGHTOIL PETROLEUM, HARBOUR ENERGY LIMITED, TEMASEK HOLDINGS (PTE) LTD, PAVILION ENERGY PTE LTD

AMP strategist says crude likely to hit $US40 before any recovery

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 22 : 9-Jan-15

The crude oil price is currently trading at about $US50 a barrel, but AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver says production is unlikely to be reduced until it falls to around $US40. He adds that historical analysis shows that any resulting rebound in the oil price is likely to occur gradually. Meanwhile, Oliver says investors should capitalise on any downturn in share prices as a result of the falling oil price

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX KAR, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY

Price crash may see BHP pull rigs

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 20 : 8-Jan-15

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at $US48 per barrel on 7 January 2015. Paul Young of Deutsche Bank suggests that BHP Billiton could potentially reduce the number of drilling rigs it operates in the Permian Basin in the US until there is a sustained rebound in the oil price. Young adds that BHP could delay adding additional drilling rigs until the oil price rises to about $US80/barrel, which may not occur until around 2018

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

M&A deals to outpace IPOs in 2015

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 20 : 6-Jan-15

Australia boasted more than $US16.21bn ($A20bn) worth of IPOs in 2014. Data from Dealogic shows that Macquarie Group handled some $US4.169bn worth of IPOs, ahead of UBS with $US2.52bn. Medibank Private dominated IPO activity in 2014, and Hugh Falcon of Macquarie expects float activity to be strong again in 2015. Simon Cox of UBS forecasts that investors will be more selective about the IPOs they back in 2015

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SPO, GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED – ASX GNE, ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED – ASX EHE, ASALEO CARE LIMITED – ASX AHY, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL

Rio Tinto primed for $5b buyback

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 5-Jan-15

Credit Suisse’s Paul McTaggart suggests that Rio Tinto may pursue an on-market share buyback worth up to $US4bn ($A5bn). He says the resources group could potentially reveal plans for a buyback in February 2015, while Glyn Lawcock of UBS believes that any such buyback will be worth between $US2bn and $US3bn. Both mining analysts also expect Rio Tinto to increase its underlying dividend. The dividend payout ratio was 35 per cent in calendar 2013

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, GLENCORE PLC, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE

Win for consumers as premiums to weaken

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 16-Dec-14

Suncorp Group’s Anthony Day says a competitive market should result in lower commercial insurance premiums in 2015. The head of commercial insurance forecasts that insurance rates will stabilise after falling in the first several months of 2015. Meanwhile, Day says the recent storm in Brisbane is likely to cost Suncorp no more than $A250m in insurance claims

CORPORATES
SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, NATIONAL INSURANCE BROKERS ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA, WILLIS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Free TV ad revenue to plummet

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Original article by Paul McIntyre
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 15-Dec-14

IPG Mediabrands expects digital media’s share of advertising revenue to rise from 36.5 per cent to 56 per cent over the next five years. The share of commercial free-to-air TV networks will fall from 26.6 per cent to just 19.9 per cent. The firm’s chief investment officer, Victor Corones, expects Australia’s advertising market to record overall growth of one per cent in 2014, rising to 3.8 per cent in 2015

CORPORATES
MEDIABRANDS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, MAGNA GLOBAL PTY LTD, THE NIELSEN COMPANY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ASSOCIATION OF NATIONAL ADVERTISERS INCORPORATED, WAL-MART STORES INCORPORATED, FORD MOTOR COMPANY, NESTLE SA, MASTERCARD INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED, PERNOD RICARD SA, CADREON PTY LTD, VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INCORPORATED

Low premium rises tipped

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 15-Dec-14

Insurance Australia Group’s Andy Cornish says the storm that hit Brisbane in late November 2014 should not have much impact on premiums. He forecasts a single-digit increase in its premiums for home and car insurance in 2015. The general insurer has received more than 15,000 claims arising from the storm, and it expects to pay out between $A140m and $A150m

CORPORATES
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, NRMA LIMITED, CGU INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LUMLEY INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED, COLES INSURANCE

Dollar’s fall lifts retailers’ spirits

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 21 : 10-Dec-14

The latest Deloitte Access Economics retail forecasts study shows that the sector can expect higher margins during the 2014 Christmas period, due to the fall of the Australian dollar against the US currency. The overall sales growth figure for the calendar year is tipped to be 5.4%, compared with 3% on average per annum since 2010. The Australian National Retailers Association (ANRA) also forecasts turnover in the second week of December to reach $A7.6bn. However ANRA CEO Anna McPhee notes that retail sector margins have declined in the past three years

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL RETAILERS ASSOCIATION LIMITED, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Robots to take 500,000 jobs

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 10-Dec-14

The Department of Industry’s "Australian Industry Report 2014" suggests that many white-collar jobs that involve routine tasks could automated in coming years. These include roles such as accountants, bank tellers, supermarket cashiers and pharmacists. Some 78.6 per cent of people in roles that are risk from automation hold a university degree. A report in 2013 found that around 47 per cent of jobs in the US could potentially be replaced by automation

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, OXFORD UNIVERSITY. OXFORD MARTIN SCHOOL