BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Gloomy growth forecast bloodies bullish CSL investors

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 12-Feb-15

Australian-listed CSL has posted a 2014-15 interim net profit of $US692.2m, which is 7.2 per cent higher than previously. Revenue for the half-year was $A2.8bn, an increase of 5.6 per cent. CSL has advised that its full-year profit will be below previous guidance, although it is still on track to deliver a double-digit increase in earning. Shareholders will receive a half-year dividend of $US0.58 per share

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, PHILO CAPITAL ADVISERS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Eyes on prize as Telstra heads for $2b net profit

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Original article by David Ramli
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 11-Feb-15

Richard Eary of UBS forecasts that Telstra will post a 2014-15 interim net profit of $A2bn, an increase of 3.9 per cent. The telco is tipped to lift its half-year dividend to $A0.16, compared with $A0.15 for the second half of 2013-14. Eary also expects Telstra to have added about 200,000 mobile telephone customers in the half-year, increasing its subscriber base to 16.5 million

CORPORATES
TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED – ASX SGT, VODAFONE HUTCHISON AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

More miners steeled for failure

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 11-Feb-15

The iron ore price has fallen by 14 per cent so far in 2015, and it was trading at $US61.20 per tonne on 10 February. Andrew Hodge of consulting firm Wood Mackenzie warns that the Koolyanobbing, Carina and Savage River iron ore mines in Australia could potentially be closed if the price remains at around its current level. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that iron ore will average $US70 per tonne in 2015

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS

Woolies’ supermarket growth revised

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Original article by Sue Mitchell, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 11-Feb-15

Shares in Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group have risen by 15 per cent so far in 2015. However, the listed property trust has reported that growth in sales at supermarkets in its shopping centres slowed to 4.2 per cent in the December 2014 quarter. Some analysts believe that this may have implications for the sales growth of grocery giants Coles and Woolworths, which will report their results later in February

CORPORATES
SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP – ASX SCP, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD

$A unlikely to take shine off Lovisa

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 10-Feb-15

Lovisa Holdings has posted a 2014-25 interim net profit of $A12.3m, which is 66.2 per cent higher than previously. The fast-fashion jewellery retailer’s sales were 33.3 per cent higher at $A73.3 million. Lovisa’s earnings and sales for the half-year exceeded prospectus forecasts, and Dean Fergie of Cyan Investment Management says it is on track to meet its full-year forecasts. Lovisa shares closed $A0.035 higher at $A2.395 on 9 February 2015

CORPORATES
LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LOV, CYAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Shocks likely as weaker $A hits home

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 10-Feb-15

Shane Lee of CIMB notes that consensus forecasts for earnings per share in the February 2015 reporting season have not been unduly affected by the sharp fall in the value of the Australian dollar. CSL, Boral and Newcrest Mining are among the stocks that could potentially have benefited from the lower currency in the first half of 2014-15. Lee notes that Boral will have greater downside risk in fiscal 2016, when less of its foreign exposure will be hedged

CORPORATES
CIMB SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, PERSEUS MINING LIMITED – ASX PRU, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, TRANSFIELD SERVICES LIMITED – ASX TSE, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL – ASX SFR, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX

Insurers to weather revenue resistance

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 9-Feb-15

Jan van der Schalk of CLSA forecasts that Insurance Australia Group will post a 2014-15 interim cash net profit of $A591m. This compares with $A642m previously. Meanwhile, CLSA forecasts that QBE Insurance Group’s cash net profit for calendar 2014 will be $US933m ($A1.2bn). Australian insurers have benefited from cost-cutting and rising premiums in recent years

CORPORATES
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

‘Acquisitions the only way’ for South32

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 4-Feb-15

BHP Billiton’s proposed South32 spin-off is slated to debut on the Australian sharemarket by mid-2015. Deutsche Bank’s Paul Young has a valuation of $US13bn ($A16.7bn) on South32, and cautions that the group will have to pursue acquisitions as its scope for organic growth will be limited. He expects South32 to shun BHP’s progressive dividends policy in favour of a payout ratio of 30-40 per cent

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOUTH AFRICA COAL

Seven ‘too small to take out Beach’

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Feb-15

Seven Group Holdings has built up a 13.4 per cent stake in Beach Energy, after initially purchasing 3.5 per cent of the group’s shares in late January 2015. The share raid has prompted speculation of a takeover play, but Tim Mann of Morningstar believes that Seven Group lacks sufficient financial firepower to effect a takeover. Martin Kronborg of Credit Suisse suggests that the move may be in expectation that Beach will attract another suitor

CORPORATES
SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, WESTRAC HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BAILLIEU HOLST LIMITED

Caterpillar’s sales crawl backwards hits Seven

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 18 : 29-Jan-15

The profit for the final three months of calendar 2014 at US mining machinery manufacturer Caterpillar has fallen 25%, prompting it to also predict declines of 9% and 22% respectively for sales and earnings per share in 2015. The slump due to the ending of the resources boom will have a negative impact on Australian-listed conglomerate Seven Group Holdings as well. It owns the WesTrac distributor of Caterpillar products in parts of Australia and China

CORPORATES
SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, CATERPILLAR INCORPORATED, WESTRAC HOLDINGS PTY LTD