BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Carsales.com looks at iCar Asia takeover

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Original article by Gretchen Friemann
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 11-Sep-14

Australian-listed Carsales.com currently holds a 22.9 per cent stake in iCar Asia. Rev Asia Berhad’s decision to offload its 27.2 per cent holding in iCar has prompted speculation that Carsales.com could launch a bid for control of the business. Carsales.com is keen to expand its international presence due to its limited growth opportunities in Australia, where it is the leading player in the automotive classified advertising sector

CORPORATES
CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CRZ, ICAR ASIA LIMITED – ASX ICQ, REV ASIA BERHAD, CATCHA MEDIA BERHAD, CATCHA GROUP, IPROPERTY GROUP LIMITED – ASX IPP, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, JOBSTREET CORPORATION BERHAD, ZHAOPIN LIMITED

Price collapse to cost big miners $10bn

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 19 : 11-Sep-14

Government revenue and the profits of major Australian-listed mining companies will be hit by the downturn in the iron ore price, which is currently trading at around $US83.20 per tonne. Macquarie Group has responded by reducing its profit forecasts for BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group by a combined $US3.93bn in 2015 and $US4.76bn in 2016. Macquarie expects the iron ore price to trade at $US92/tonne in 2015

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED

Ore slide leaves miners in dust

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 20 : 5-Sep-14

The Steel Index says weakening demand in the steel sector in China has pushed the iron ore price to close to a five-year low of $US85.70 a tonne. No medium-term improvement is expected by Andrew Mackenzie, CEO of BHP Billiton. However along with Mount Gibson Iron, Fortescue Metals Group and Rio Tinto, BHP remains profitable. Analysts believe that Cliffs, Gindalbie Metals and Grange Resources are now operating at a loss, and Atlas Iron, Arrium and BC Iron may follow

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GINDALBIE METALS LIMITED – ASX GBG, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, THE STEEL INDEX LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Murray review could lift costs

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Original article by Kylar Loussikian
The Australian – Page: 18 : 4-Sep-14

JPMorgan banking analyst Scott Manning warns that wholesale funding costs in the banking sector may rise some $A2.2bn, if recommendations likely to be made by the Australian Government’s new financial system review are adopted. A major issue is potentially more stringent capital requirements to fund home mortgage lending. Interest rate discounts on such loans offered by the main banks have grown to between 1% and 1.4% from 0.2% in 2009

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Correction in housing market ‘inevitable’

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 21 : 3-Sep-14

Residential real estate prices have risen an average 15% in a year in the Australian state and territory capital markets, while auction clearance rates in late August 2014 are around 70%. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority data also indicate that the main four banks are taking on riskier mortgage loan borrowers. However business leader David Gonski says while an eventual price decline is a certainty in the housing market, the banks are able to manage their lending strategies

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, SCHULTE RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL

$9.7bn boost for BHP

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 3-Sep-14

The stock of BHP Billiton closed $A0.20 higher at $A36.90 on 2 September 2014, as analysts start to recognise the gains to be made in its Western Australian iron ore operations. The disappointment at the lack of a stock repurchasing scheme has overshadowed the fact that BHP will have its value lifted by as much as $US9bn ($A9.7bn) thanks to the Pilbara mines. Their output forecast has been raised from 225 million tonnes to 290 million annually, while the cash cost will fall from as high as $US120 a tonne to under $US50

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Qantas $3b loss start of comeback

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 29-Aug-14

Restructuring costs and write-downs have prompted Qantas to post a loss of $A2.84bn for the 2013-14 financial year. The national carrier’s underlying loss of $A646m compares with forecasts of a $A750m loss. Linda White of the Australian Services Union says CEO Alan Joyce and Qantas directors should step down as a result of the airline’s record loss. Joyce is upbeat about the outlook for Qantas, which has forecast an underlying profit for the first half of 2014-15

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, REGIONAL EXPRESS AIRLINES, REGIONAL EXPRESS HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX REX, TIGER AIRWAYS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED – ASX AIZ, SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED, ETIHAD AIRWAYS, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, BRITISH AIRWAYS PLC, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED

BC Iron signals tough times ahead for the Pilbara as ore price pushes two-year low

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 17 : 28-Aug-14

BC Iron has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit increase from $A71.4m to $A72.9m. However just 15% of the earnings were generated in the second six months, demonstrating the major negative impact of the weaker iron ore price. The commodity has declined 35% to below $US90 a tonne so far in calendar 2014. BC’s 12-month distribution has also been cut by $A0.03, to $A0.32. MD Morgan Ball says the iron ore price will not fall further

CORPORATES
BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, IRON ORE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IOH, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, FOSTER STOCKBROKING PTY LTD

Village eyes Asia growth, sees tougher 2014 at box office

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Original article by Madeleine Heffernan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 22-Aug-14

Village Roadshow has posted a 2013-14 net profit of $A45.8m, which is 10 per cent lower than previously. The group’s income from continuing operations rose by three per cent to $A965.8m. EBITDA for Village’s cinemas business was $A62.6m, while the theme park division’s EBITDA was $A105.6m. CEO Graham Burke is upbeat about the outlook for both divisions in 2014-15, although he expects lower cinema earnings in Australia

CORPORATES
VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED – ASX VRL, WET `N’ WILD WATER PARK, BAILLIEU HOLST LIMITED, ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, HOYTS CINEMAS LIMITED

Qantas frequent flyer float plan back on ice

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Original article by Michael Smith,Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 21-Aug-14

The frequent flyer program of Qantas boasted underlying EBITA of $A146m for the first half of 2013-14, and now more than 10 million members. The carrier is believed to be poised to abandon plans to sell 30-40 per cent of the Qantas Loyalty business via an IPO, and a number of analysts had concerns about such a strategy. Qantas will release its full-year results on 28 August 2014, and is tipped to post a pre-tax underlying loss of $A750m

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN,QANTAS FREQUENT FLYER LIMITED,SHAW STOCKBROKING LIMITED,BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT,COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED,BALANCED EQUITY MANAGEMENT PTY LTD,WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW,MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG,CITIGROUP PTY LTD