BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Qantas $3b loss start of comeback

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 29-Aug-14

Restructuring costs and write-downs have prompted Qantas to post a loss of $A2.84bn for the 2013-14 financial year. The national carrier’s underlying loss of $A646m compares with forecasts of a $A750m loss. Linda White of the Australian Services Union says CEO Alan Joyce and Qantas directors should step down as a result of the airline’s record loss. Joyce is upbeat about the outlook for Qantas, which has forecast an underlying profit for the first half of 2014-15

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, REGIONAL EXPRESS AIRLINES, REGIONAL EXPRESS HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX REX, TIGER AIRWAYS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED – ASX AIZ, SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED, ETIHAD AIRWAYS, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, BRITISH AIRWAYS PLC, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED

BC Iron signals tough times ahead for the Pilbara as ore price pushes two-year low

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 17 : 28-Aug-14

BC Iron has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit increase from $A71.4m to $A72.9m. However just 15% of the earnings were generated in the second six months, demonstrating the major negative impact of the weaker iron ore price. The commodity has declined 35% to below $US90 a tonne so far in calendar 2014. BC’s 12-month distribution has also been cut by $A0.03, to $A0.32. MD Morgan Ball says the iron ore price will not fall further

CORPORATES
BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, IRON ORE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IOH, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, FOSTER STOCKBROKING PTY LTD

Village eyes Asia growth, sees tougher 2014 at box office

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Original article by Madeleine Heffernan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 22-Aug-14

Village Roadshow has posted a 2013-14 net profit of $A45.8m, which is 10 per cent lower than previously. The group’s income from continuing operations rose by three per cent to $A965.8m. EBITDA for Village’s cinemas business was $A62.6m, while the theme park division’s EBITDA was $A105.6m. CEO Graham Burke is upbeat about the outlook for both divisions in 2014-15, although he expects lower cinema earnings in Australia

CORPORATES
VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED – ASX VRL, WET `N’ WILD WATER PARK, BAILLIEU HOLST LIMITED, ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, HOYTS CINEMAS LIMITED

Qantas frequent flyer float plan back on ice

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Original article by Michael Smith,Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 21-Aug-14

The frequent flyer program of Qantas boasted underlying EBITA of $A146m for the first half of 2013-14, and now more than 10 million members. The carrier is believed to be poised to abandon plans to sell 30-40 per cent of the Qantas Loyalty business via an IPO, and a number of analysts had concerns about such a strategy. Qantas will release its full-year results on 28 August 2014, and is tipped to post a pre-tax underlying loss of $A750m

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN,QANTAS FREQUENT FLYER LIMITED,SHAW STOCKBROKING LIMITED,BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT,COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED,BALANCED EQUITY MANAGEMENT PTY LTD,WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW,MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG,CITIGROUP PTY LTD

IAG focuses on the bottom line

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 : 20-Aug-14

Insurance Australia Group (IAG) has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit increase of 59% to $A1.23bn, as gross written premiums also lifted 3% to reach $A9.8bn. The 12-month distribution has been boosted 8.3% to $A0.39, and on 19 August 2014 the stock closed $A0.03 higher at $A6.20. CEO Mike Wilkins said the Australian-listed company would focus on improved margins rather than to defend market share, as smaller rivals such as Youi, Budget and Progressive as well as supermarket chains and major banks expand their business

CORPORATES
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, ALLIANZ AUSTRALIA LIMITED, YOUI PTY LTD, BUDGET DIRECT INSURANCE AGENCY PTY LTD, PROGRESSIVE DIRECT INSURANCE COMPANY, NRMA INSURANCE LIMITED, SGIO INSURANCE LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Forecasts dip as economy slackens

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 20-Aug-14

The Australian sharemarket has gained 3.5 per cent so far in 2014, although it has risen by 27 per cent in the last two years. Tony Brennan of Citigroup forecasts that the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index will end the year at 5,750 points. However, he warns that the market has lowered earnings expectations for 2014-15 by 0.5 per cent so far, and this could be scaled back further

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, BLOOMBERG LP, LEUTHOLD GROUP LLC, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOWNER EDI LIMITED – ASX DOW, LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LEI

A leaner BHP is taking shape

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald, Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 17 : 18-Aug-14

BHP Billiton CEO Andrew Mackenzie is rolling out his "four pillars" strategy of concentrating on the core iron ore, coal, copper and petroleum divisions. A potential hiving-off of other assets into a separately-listed entity will be discussed at the 2013-14 results presentation on 19 August 2014, at which BHP is also tipped to unveil a profit rise of 27% to $US13.8bn ($A14.8bn). The 12-month distribution is forecast to be lifted to above $US1.20 from $US1.16 previously. However a stock repurchasing scheme worth up to $US5bn is now less likely, due to the spin-off move

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PENGANA CAPITAL LIMITED

Fairfax eyes more cuts in the race to stem revenue bleed

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Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 17 : 15-Aug-14

Fairfax Media has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit of $A224.4m post-tax, after a 2012-13 loss of $A15.5m. Excluding abnormal gains from the divestment of the Stayz and InvestSmart businesses, the operating earnings were up 1.8% to reach $A306.4m. Revenue in the newspapers division was down 9.2% to $A803.2m, and that of the radio assets 6% to $A103.8m. However at the Domain property wed site unit it grew 15.5% to $A146.6m. CEO Greg Hywood signalled further cost reductions, and investors pushed Fairfax shares $A0.06 higher to a close of $A0.94 on 14 August 2014

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, STAYZ PTY LTD, INVESTSMART FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Popular Aldi threatens Woolworths, Coles duopoly

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 12 : 15-Aug-14

Aldi currently boasts annual sales of about $A5.3bn in Australia. A UBS report estimates that Aldi could potentially lift its sales to $A9.3bn in the next five year. The firm forecasts that the annual sales of Coles, Woolworths and Metcash could be slashed by $A250m to $A350m by 2019 due to the growth of Aldi. Ben Gilbert of UBS notes that Aldi could achieve even stronger growth if it addresses issues such as the quality of its fresh food and long queues at checkouts, which are negatively affecting consumer sentiment toward the group

CORPORATES
ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, TESCO PLC, J SAINSBURY PLC, ASDA GROUP PLC, MORRISONS, LIDL GMBH & CO KG, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Money on Echo as it shows a good hand

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 24 : 14-Aug-14

The stock of gaming group Echo Entertainment on 13 August 2014 closed 3.1% higher at $A3.30. It had posted a 2013-14 full-year net profit increase of 27.3% to $A106.3m, or 24.6% to $A158.2m excluding abnormal gains from "high rollers". Revenue from its New South Wales and Queensland casino operations also grew 3.9% to reach $A1.8bn. A distribution of $A0.04 has been declared. CEO Matt Bekier noted that strong earnings growth for Echo should now be seen as a given

CORPORATES
ECHO ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX EGP, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, THE STAR, CITIGROUP PTY LTD