BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Confidence lifts but jobs lag

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 21 : 13-Aug-14

The latest data compiled by National Australia Bank on the nation’s businesses, excluding agriculture, show that both confidence and trading conditions improved in July 2014. The latter are now at levels last witnessed in 2010, while sentiment is at the best reading since the global financial crisis. New Australian Bureau of Statistics figures also indicate residential real estate prices growth of 10.1% for 2013-14. However the jobless rate for July was up as well, to 6.4%. This was the worst result in a dozen years

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Drop in tablet sales proves a bitter pill for JB Hi-Fi

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Original article by Bridget Carter
The Australian – Page: 19 : 12-Aug-14

Electronic goods retailer JB Hi-Fi has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit increase of 10.3% to $A128.4m, as had been tipped. Turnover grew 5.3% to reach $A3.48bn, and was up 2% on a like-for-like basis. However the company also conceded that revenue declined 5.5% year-on-year during the month of July 2014, as consumers bought fewer tablet computers. CEO Richard Murray said new devices would compensate for this during the course of 2014-15. The 12-month distribution is $A0.84, up 16.7%, and on 11 August the stock fell $A1.53 to close at $A17.84.

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, JB HI-FI HOME, MOELIS AND COMPANY

Banks count on trust to fend off new players

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 : 12-Aug-14

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank CEO Mike Hirst has commented on the new competition posed to the banking sector in Australia and globally by electronic payment services providers such as PayPal. He noted that these challengers lack the trust consumers still have in the established banks, which also command larger holdings in their accounts. Hirst argued that the main threat to the industry was a potential serious data breach by computer hackers, which would erode the confidence customers have in the institutions

CORPORATES
BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, PAYPAL INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Takeover rush fuelled by cheap debt could shrink index

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 7-Aug-14

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse expects Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index to reach 6,000 points by the end of 2014. He forecasts that the low cost of funding via debt markets will lead to an upturn in takeover activity in Australia. This in turn will result in the number of companies that are acquired or undertake buybacks exceeding IPO and capital raising activity

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DAVID JONES LIMITED – ASX DJS, AUSTRALAND PROPERTY GROUP – ASX ALZ, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BUSINESS 20 (B20), RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Map out roadwork: Transurban

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Original article by Damon Kitney, Mitchell Neems
The Australian – Page: 23 : 6-Aug-14

Toll roads operator Transurban has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit increase of 44.5% to $A252.2m. The 12-month distribution is $A0.35, and a forecast of $A0.39 for the 2014-15 payout has also been confirmed. On 5 August 2014 the stock closed 0.9% lower at $A7.58. CEO Scott Charlton said the company applauded pledges by the State Governments of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland to improve their roads infrastructure, but it was also calling for more co-ordination that involved the Federal Government as well

CORPORATES
TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, TRANSURBAN CITY LINK LIMITED, WESTCONNEX, HILLS MOTORWAY GROUP LIMITED, QUEENSLAND MOTORWAYS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL

Start-ups key as change batters the big four

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 15 : 4-Aug-14

Consultants at Ernst & Young and KPMG warn that large companies must seek strategic alliances with small start-ups in order to safeguard against digital disruption. A major sector in need of such an approach is that of banking in Australia, and the four main lenders are already facing competition by online payments businesses such as PayPal. However Brian Hartzer, CEO Australian financial services at Westpac Banking, argues the banks can themselves behave like start-ups. Kelly Bayer Rosmarin, group executive institutional banking and markets at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, also says they have an advantage in the shape of large stores of customer data

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, PAYPAL INCORPORATED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, KPMG, ERNST AND YOUNG

Eddington cheers a ‘new wave’ from Japan

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Original article by Rick Wallace, Rowan Callick
The Australian – Page: 19 : 31-Jul-14

Prominent Australian businessman Sir Rod Eddington predicts increased investment by Japanese entities, including major trading houses Mitsui, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi, under a new free-trade agreement. He also notes that the services sector will be a major beneficiary in terms of exports to Japan, apart from the more obvious agricultural industry. However Wesfarmers non-executive director and Strategy& chair Vanessa Wallace notes that Australian businesses currently account for under 1% of all foreign companies with operations in Japan

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COOGEE CHEMICALS PTY LTD, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, MITSUI AND COMPANY LIMITED, SUMITOMO CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE

Navitas marked down after uni setback

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Original article by Julie Hare
The Australian – Page: 19 : 29-Jul-14

Navitas has announced a 2013-14 full-year net profit drop of 31% to $A51.6m, on revenue of $A878.2m. The earnings per share declined 31% as well, to $A0.137. On 28 July 2014 the stock lost $A0.14 to close at $A4.98. In early July it had fallen steeply from $A7.75 to $A4.68, on news the higher education enrolment services provider had lost its contract with Macquarie University. Navitas CEO Rod Jones says the company predicts improve trading conditions once the Australian Government’s full deregulation of university course fees becomes law

CORPORATES
NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 100 INDEX, EDITH COWAN UNIVERSITY, MASSACHUSETTS COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS, CURTIN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SOUTH AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COLLEGE OF APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY PTY LTD, SAE INSTITUTE PTY LTD

Iron ore set to deliver profits before earnings’ slide bites

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 28-Jul-14

Higher export volumes and cost-cutting will ensure that Australian-listed iron ore producers deliver good full-year results in the August 2014 reporting season. However, the sector faces challenges in the 2014-15 fiscal year, including expectations of continued weakness in the iron ore price. This will offset further growth in export volumes, with companies whose sole focus is iron ore likely to be hardest hit. Stuart Howe of Bell Potter notes that iron ore producers may continue to pay strong dividends

CORPORATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, FORMOSA

IAG lifts full-year profit margin outlook

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 25-Jul-14

Insurance Australia Group (IAG) has upgraded its full-year profit margin forecast for 2013-14 to between 18 per cent and 18.3 per cent, from the previously announced range of 14.5 per cent to 16.5 per cent. The new estimate takes the group’s profit margin to its highest levels since the company listed on the sharemarket in 2000. CEO Mike Wilkins said IAG benefited from warm weather and a lack of claims

CORPORATES
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG|ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX|NRMA INSURANCE LIMITED|CGU INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED|COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA|BKI INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX BKI|TYNDALL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED|GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD|WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES