CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

CPI cools further rate cut chances

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 31-Oct-19

Official data shows that the consumer price index rose 0.5 per cent during the September quarter and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. Trimmed mean inflation was 0.4 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent for the year to September. With the inflation rate remaining below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for a 15th consecutive quarter, the cash rate now seems likely to stay unchanged at 0.75 per cent for the rest of the year. Craig James of CommSec says the three interest rate cuts in 2019 have spooked consumers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

RBA urges boards: cut hurdle rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Oct-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has used a speech in Canberra to argue that businesses should reduce their return hurdle rates on new investments in response to historically low interest rates. He contends that many business investments that did not make sense commercially when interest rates were much higher should now proceed. Lowe also emphasised that negative interest rates are unlikely in Australia.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

No option for savers as deposits slashed

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 29-Oct-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s term deposit interest rates are now well below the official inflation rate. The banking major has cut its term deposit rates by a much higher margin than the 75-basis point reduction in the cash rate so far in 2019. InfoChoice CEO Vadim Taube says savers need to look beyond the four major banks for term deposits that offer above-inflation interest rates. Meanwhile, Liberal MP Tim Wilson says the Reserve Bank should be wary of further easing monetary policy until the impact of the recent series of official interest cuts can be determined.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, INFOCHOICE LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

QE tipped as rate cuts lose impact

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 22-Oct-19

A number of economists now say the Reserve Bank of Australia could implement unconventional monetary policy measures in 2020. They include Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans, who warns that quantitative easing may be necessary if the cash rate fall below 0.5 per cent. Michael Knox of Morgans Financial, Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets and Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics have also flagged the prospect of quantitative easing. Financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut to 0.5 per cent by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Cup day rate cut less likely on minutes

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Oct-19

Financial markets have priced in a 36 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in November, following the release of the minutes from the central bank’s October board meeting. Amongst other things, board members expressed concern about the impact of historically low interest rates on savers and the housing market. The general consensus of economists is that the cash rate will remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Evans warns of negative impact of rate cuts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Oct-19

Financial markets expect the cash rate to fall to 0.5 per cent by February, and market pricing suggests that there is more than a 50 per cent chance of further rate cuts by mid-2020. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says the Reserve Bank should take note of declining consumer confidence when considering further rate cuts, and the "possible unintended consequences" of any move toward negative interest rates. The general consensus of economists is that fiscal policy would be more effective than unconventional monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

QE would kill finance and capitalism, McKibbin warns

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 9-Oct-19

Former Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin has cautioned against any move to reduce implement quantitative easing in Australia. He argues that unconventional monetary policy in Europe is merely propping up financially unsustainable businesses while restricting access to capital for new businesses. He adds that reducing interest rates below a certain level merely distorts capital without providing any economic stimulus. Some economists expect the cash rate to fall to 0.5 per cent in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

We’ve ourselves to blame for paying banks too much

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 12 : 8-Oct-19

Australia’s banks have attracted widespread criticism for reducing their mortgate rates by about half of the 0.25 per cent official interest rate cut on 1 October. However, banks are entitled to pass on as much or as little of the cash rate cut as they like, and customers can easily switch to another lender if they are dissatisfied. Consumers effectively pay a loyalty tax for remaining with their existing lender; this may be more appropriately called a stupidity tax, as it raises some $6.3bn each year for mortgage lenders. While banks are the biggest beneficiary of the stupidity tax, it is paid across the economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

Savers do it tough as banks hold off cuts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro, Aleks Vickovich, Jemima Whyte
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 4-Oct-19

People who rely on interest income from their savings have been hard hit by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s aggressive monetary policy easing. Canstar notes that banks’ 12-month deposit rates have traditionally been about one per cent higher than the cash rate, but this has narrowed to 0.64 per cent. Term deposit rates and online savings account rates have both fallen sharply since the first of three official interest rate cuts in June, and Canstar’s Steve Mickenbecker says there is little scope for further reductions.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CANSTAR PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, SUNCORP BANK, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

RBA inflation goal requires negative rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 3-Oct-19

Andrew Boak, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, says there is a material risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate to less than 0.5 per cent and implement a quantitative easing program. Boak adds that the central bank’s own macroeconomic model suggests that a negative cash rate would be needed to deliver on its inflation and employment targets over the next 2-3 years. Boak expects the cash rate to be cut by another 25 basis points in November, while financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut by February.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY