CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

Economists raise chances of QE

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 26-Sep-19

UBS’s chief economist George Tharenou says there is a growing possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy options. He says the US Federal Reserve is likely to reduce official interest rates by another one per cent over the next year, as US economic growth slows due to the latest round of tariff hikes. This in turn will put pressure on the RBA to further ease monetary policy, and potentially resort to measures such as quantitative easing. Tharenou expects the RBA to reduce the cash rate to just 0.25 per cent by May 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

RBA chief ready to cut rates again

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 25-Sep-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that the central bank is prepared to further reduce the cash rate if necessary. He has cited factors such as the downward trend in global interest rates and a ‘surprise’ slowdown in the domestic economy, which grew by just 1.4 per cent in the year to June. Lowe’s speech in regional New South Wales has heightened speculation that the RBA will reduce the cash rate to a new low of 0.75 per cent in October. George Tharenou of UBS expects the cash rate to fall to just 0.25 per cent by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARMIDALE BUSINESS CHAMBER, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ tips 0.25pc cash rate by May

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Original article by Melissa Yeo, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 6-Sep-19

The ANZ Bank’s head of Australian economics David Plank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in October, and he says it is likely to ease monetary policy again in February and May 2020. Plank says factors such as the outlook for unemployment and global uncertainty will see official interest rates fall to a record low of 0.25 per cent. UBS economist George Tharenou also anticipates rate cuts in October and February, and he has flagged the potential for a third rate cut in March.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ boss braces for slowdown

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Original article by Richard Gluyas, Glenda Korporaal, David Rogers, Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 4-Sep-19

Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate to at least 0.5 per cent, but he says this will do little to stimulate the economy. The RBA signalled on 3 September that official interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period; ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott says record low interest rates demonstrate that central banks are concerned about the global economic outlook. The RBA’s monthly board meeting coincided with the release of data showing that retail spending fell by 0.1 per cent in July, compared with economists’ expectations of an 0.2 per cent increase.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, LATITUDE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Reserve Bank flags QE to lift stagnant economy

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 28-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Guy Debelle says the nation has been a major beneficiary of the rules-based global trading system, and he has warned that the current threats to this system present a major risk to both the Australian and global economies. Debelle has also used an Economic Society speech to indicate that the RBA could be open to quantitative easing if the cash rate falls to 0.5 per cent. However, David Plank of the ANZ Bank says the RBA is unlikely to pursue such a course of action unless the cash rate falls to 0.25 per cent or lower.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

‘Political shocks turn into economic shocks’: RBA chief

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Aug-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has told the global monetary policy conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming that the world is experiencing a period of major political shocks that are turning into economic shocks. Lowe also reiterated the need for governments to provide economic stimulus via infrastructure investment and structural reform, arguing that monetary policy alone is insufficient. Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government lacks a plan to turn around the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF ENGLAND, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Cure for housing fix ‘worse than disease’: UBS

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 23-Aug-19

Investment bank UBS has warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move towards extremely low interest rates risks reflating the residential property ‘bubble’. The ultra-low rates are also putting pressure on the dividend policies and margin levels of the nation’s large banks, while plans by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reduce related-party exposure limits with regard to Tier 1 capital will put pressure on the banks’ capital.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA RADIATION LABORATORIES, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

More rate cuts in RBA mix to guard economy

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Aug-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monthly board meeting show that the central bank will be open to further easing of monetary policy if the economic outlook worsens. The minutes also indicate that RBA board members expect that official interest rates may need to remain at a record low for some time in order to achieve the central bank’s inflation target. However, the RBA also indicated that it will assess developments in the global and domestic economies before taking any further monetary policy action. Sally Auld of JP Morgan does not expect a rate cut until February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Bond signal: ultra-low rates for a decade

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 9-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate below 0.5 per cent within six months, and overnight indexed swaps pricing suggests that the cash rate will average 0.84 per cent over the next decade. David Plank of the ANZ Bank warns that the central bank will most likely need to adopt a quantitative easing policy within 5-10 years; he adds that this will probably not be necessary in the next year or so, unless there is a significant downturn in the global economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS

RBA lowers GDP, inflation forecasts

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged on 6 August. Central bank governor Philip Lowe again indicated that official interest rates will remain low for some time, and that any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for the unemployment rate and inflation. The inflation rate was 1.6 per cent in the year to June, and the RBA now does not expect it to reach the bottom end of its 2-3 per cent target range until 2021.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED