CONSUMER CONFIDENCE – AUSTRALIA

Gary Morgan’s comment on this week’s Consumer Confidence & Business Confidence – both down

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-16

This week’s fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence – down 3.3pts to 114.7 – follows a similar fall in Roy Morgan Business Confidence during July – down 3.4pts to 116.1. Both falls come as the new Turnbull Government deals with a closer than expected Federal Election result and a record 11 Senate cross-benchers. Although that might at first appear to be a huge problem for the Turnbull Government, the fact that most of the new cross-benchers in the Senate are right-of-centre should make dealing with the Senate easier during this term of Parliament than it was during the last term and it should be possible for the Government to pass its reforms with corporate tax cuts and the Australian Building & Construction Commission (ABCC) to increase workplace productivity. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low 1.25% last week is a step in the right direction to stimulate the broader Australian economy; however, a further cut of 1% at the RBA’s next meeting is required to be competitive with international competitors including the US & UK and deal with the rising $A and slowing Australian economy after the end of the mining boom.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence takes a hit – down 3.3pts to 114.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the week ending 7 August 2016. This is a surprising result given that the RBA cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 per cent last Tuesday. While the drop is disappointing, overall confidence remains well above its long run average. The deterioration in confidence was relatively broadly based. Consumers’ views of their current finances fell by 2.4 per cent, and households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by 8.5 per cent.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Cutting rates to get the $A lower brings risks to the economy

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 10-Aug-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The currency has benefited from the fact that the local cash rate is still quite high relative to many countries, so further money policy easing may be necessary in order to put sustained downward pressure on the dollar. However, this strategy has economic risks, such as the potential to undermine consumer confidence. Indeed, the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the first week of August.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence picks up steam ahead of the RBA meeting – up 2.5pts to 118.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has risen by 2.2 per cent to 118.0 in the week ending 31 July 2016, with the improvement in confidence being broadly based. Increasing speculation of a rate cut at this week’s RBA meeting was likely a key driver of confidence. In addition, the buoyancy of the equity market – with the Australian share market recording its best July in six years – was also key in supporting household sentiment. Consumers’ views of their current finances rose by 6.8 per cent, and households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 3.7 per cent.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Gary Morgan on Consumer Confidence and the RBA’s decision to drop Australian interest rates to 1.5%

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-16

The August interest rate cut by the RBA shows that finally the RBA has acknowledged Australia’s massive under-employment problem that has been persistently ignored (8.3% – 1.079 million, in June, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates). In addition, it’s time policymakers recognised the true extent of unemployment in Australia (9.6% in June – 1.247 million – according to the latest Roy Morgan real unemployment estimate). To provide an effective stimulus to the economy the RBA should immediately cut Australian interest rates to 0.5% – the same as in the comparable economies of the US & UK and as we have been calling for the RBA to do for more than two years. Reducing interest rates will have the most positive impact on the Australian economy when the banks start lending to more businesses rather than just households – particularly as this week’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence shows Australians are growing increasingly confident – now at 118.0 (up 2.5pts this week). By providing increased finance and credit to businesses the Australian economy will grow strongly and more jobs will be created for the over 2 million Australians either unemployed or under-employed

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence ticks up to 115.5 (up 0.6pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jul-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has risen by 0.5 per cent to 115.5 in the week ending 24 July 2016. Lower financial market volatility and buoyant equity markets are likely the main factors behind the improvement. Consumers’ views of their current finances fell two per cent, but households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 1.5 per cent.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edges lower to 114.9 (down 0.3pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Jul-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen for the fourth week in a row, down 0.3 per cent to 114.9 in the week ending 17 July 2016. The headline index is now 3.3 per cent lower than four weeks ago. Consumers’ views of their current finances edged 0.2 per cent higher last week, while consumers’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 3.1 per cent.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence falls further – down 0.6pts to 115.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jul-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen for the third week in a row, down 0.5 per cent to 115.2 in the week ending 10 July 2016. Uncertainty related to the election result and lingering concerns over the global outlook likely remain key factors behind the recent decline. Last week’s downgrade from Standard & Poor’s to the outlook for Australia’s credit rating – from stable to negative – could also have weighed on sentiment. Consumers’ views of their current finances edged 0.3 per cent higher, but households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by 4.1 per cent.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence remains upbeat despite ‘Brexit’ jitters – now at 116.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.9 per cent to 116.8 in the week ending 26 June 2016, only partially offsetting the rise the previous week. Despite the turmoil in global financial markets – driven by the surprise result in the UK referendum – households remain optimistic about their finances and the economic outlook. Last week’s easing in confidence was largely driven by a deterioration in consumers’ views towards the economic outlook. The indicator on "finances compared to a year ago" fell 2.3 per cent, and views towards "economic conditions in the next 12 months" fell nine per cent.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence spikes to 118.8 – highest in 2 1/2 years

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jun-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.1 per cent to 118.8 in the week ending 19 June 2016, and it now stands at the highest level since November 2013. Good news released last week about the Australian labour market and the business sector is likely to have lifted sentiment. The increase in confidence was broad-based, with consumers’ views about their finances leading the gains. The indicator on "finances compared to a year ago" rose 3.1 per cent, and views towards "economic conditions in the next 12 months" increased by two per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ