Gary Morgan comment on this week’s strong Consumer Confidence result

Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Sep-16

This week’s rise in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, up 3.8pts to 118.1, comes after a strong Australian GDP result last week which showed the Australian economy growing at an annual rate in the year to June of 3.3 per cent. This is the fastest annual GDP growth for the Australian economy for four years since 2012. Although this week’s increase in Consumer Confidence might seem to contradict the fall in the Roy Morgan Business Confidence – down 7.5pts to 108.6 in August, released yesterday, the two indicators are measured over a different time period (the month of August compared to the weekend just past) and have therefore been impacted by different socio-economic drivers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence falls again – down 4.1pts to 114.3

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Sep-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen fell for the second week in a row, down 3.5 per cent to 114.3 in the week ending 4 September 2016. The sizeable decline more than offset the jump in confidence three weeks ago, which took the index to a 33-month high. The decline in confidence was largely driven by households’ views over the economic outlook. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by 7.6 per cent, while consumers’ views of their current and future finances fell by 2.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence falls after Olympics ends, but still at high levels – 118.4 (down 3.4pts)

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.8 per cent to 118.4 in the week ending 28 August 2016. The decline in confidence was entirely driven by households’ views of the economic outlook. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by 7.0 per cent, while consumers’ views of their current and future finances rose by 1.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps to near three-year high of 121.8 (up 4.2pts) during Olympics

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose by 3.6 per cent to 121.8 in the week ending 21 August 2016, to its highest level since November 2013. The improvement in confidence was broadly-based. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 5.4 per cent, while consumers’ views of their current and future finances rose by 1.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence bounces back – up 2.9pts to 117.6

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has risen by 2.5 per cent to 117.6 in the week ending 15 August 2016, largely offsetting the decline over the previous week. Sentiment is now 4.3 per cent above its long-run average. The improvement in confidence was driven by a sharp rebound in consumers’ views of the economic outlook. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 9.6 per cent, while consumers’ views of their future finances rose by 1.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NAB forecasts more cuts in interest rates

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-16

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points in the next 12 months, to a record low of one per cent. The banking major anticipates rate cuts in both May and August 2017. Meanwhile, NAB’s latest monthly survey shows that both business sentiment and business conditions declined in July 2016. Likewise, the ANZ Bank-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index fell by 2.8 per cent in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on this week’s Consumer Confidence & Business Confidence – both down

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-16

This week’s fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence – down 3.3pts to 114.7 – follows a similar fall in Roy Morgan Business Confidence during July – down 3.4pts to 116.1. Both falls come as the new Turnbull Government deals with a closer than expected Federal Election result and a record 11 Senate cross-benchers. Although that might at first appear to be a huge problem for the Turnbull Government, the fact that most of the new cross-benchers in the Senate are right-of-centre should make dealing with the Senate easier during this term of Parliament than it was during the last term and it should be possible for the Government to pass its reforms with corporate tax cuts and the Australian Building & Construction Commission (ABCC) to increase workplace productivity. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low 1.25% last week is a step in the right direction to stimulate the broader Australian economy; however, a further cut of 1% at the RBA’s next meeting is required to be competitive with international competitors including the US & UK and deal with the rising $A and slowing Australian economy after the end of the mining boom.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence takes a hit – down 3.3pts to 114.7

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the week ending 7 August 2016. This is a surprising result given that the RBA cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 per cent last Tuesday. While the drop is disappointing, overall confidence remains well above its long run average. The deterioration in confidence was relatively broadly based. Consumers’ views of their current finances fell by 2.4 per cent, and households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by 8.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Cutting rates to get the $A lower brings risks to the economy

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 10-Aug-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The currency has benefited from the fact that the local cash rate is still quite high relative to many countries, so further money policy easing may be necessary in order to put sustained downward pressure on the dollar. However, this strategy has economic risks, such as the potential to undermine consumer confidence. Indeed, the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence picks up steam ahead of the RBA meeting – up 2.5pts to 118.0

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has risen by 2.2 per cent to 118.0 in the week ending 31 July 2016, with the improvement in confidence being broadly based. Increasing speculation of a rate cut at this week’s RBA meeting was likely a key driver of confidence. In addition, the buoyancy of the equity market – with the Australian share market recording its best July in six years – was also key in supporting household sentiment. Consumers’ views of their current finances rose by 6.8 per cent, and households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 3.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ