DEBTS

Chalmers to fight inflation, then spend

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-24

The federal government’s budget on 14 May will show that Australia’s gross debt has risen to $904bn in 2023-24; this is about $152bn lower than was forecast ahead of the 2022 federal election. However, the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 33.7 per cent in the current financial year to 35.1 per cent by 2025-26. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has signalled that combating inflation will be the key focus of the 2024 budget, while he has flagged an increase in government spending over the forward estimates period.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Total debt pile triples in 10 years

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Nov-23

Data from the Parliamentary Budget Office shows that Australia’s net debt has risen to $31,400 per capita over the last decade. Net debt per capita totalled just $8,600 at the federal level in 2013-14, but this is forecast to reach $21,300 in 2023-24. Across the states and territories, net debt per person was just $2,000 in 2013-14, and is slated to reach $11,200 in the current financial year. Victoria has recorded the biggest increase in net debt per capita among the states over the last decade, ahead of NSW and South Australia.

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AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

Government debt bill poised to double: IMF

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 13-Apr-23

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that federal and state government spending as a share of the Australian economy will settle about two per cent above its pre-pandemic average. It also expects the general government interest bill to account for 1.8 per cent of GDP by 2028; this is more than double the size of the interest bill in the years leading up to the pandemic. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal budget has structural issues, due to factors such as the growing debt bill, the rising cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme and spending in areas such as health, aged care and defence.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Victorians get poorer under Labor

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 23-Nov-22

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that Victoria’s gross household disposable income per person was $52,488 in 2021-22, which is the second-lowest among the states and territories. Victoria’s gross household disposable income per person had been ranked fourth in 1999, and reached the third-highest in the early 2000s. Former federal Treasury economist Stephen Anthony says the state government has overseen a "pyramid scheme" built on high debt; he says it is very clear that Premier Daniel Andrews has destroyed living standards and been "fiscally profligate". Victoria’s net debt is forecast to rise to $166bn in 2025-26, which equates to 24.6 per cent of the state’s economy

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Victorian budget a risk to recovery

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 21-May-21

The Victorian government’s May 2021 Budget shows that the state’s net debt will blow out to $156.3bn by mid-2025. However, the government has confirmed that the state’s deficit for 2020-21 will be much lower than previously forecast, at $17.4bn. The key measure announced in the Budget is a payroll tax surcharge of 0.5 per cent on businesses with a wages bill of more than $10m; this will rise to one per cent for businesses with wages costs of more than $100m. The surcharge is slated to raise $387m in 2021-22 and about $3bn over four years, with the proceeds to be used to finance a $3.8bn mental health package. The levy has been criticised by business leaders and federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who warn that it will cost jobs and undermine the national economy’s recovery from the pandemic.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

AAA rating likely to be downgraded

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 13-May-21

S&P Global Ratings placed Australia’s triple-A credit rating on negative outlook in April 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Commonwealth Bank has warned that Australia could potentially be downgraded to AA+ when S&P undertakes its annual review of the nation’s credit rating in September. Fixed income strategists Philip Brown and Martin Whetton attribute this to Australia’s rapidly growing net debt. However, ratings agencies are generally positive about Budget measures aimed at further stimulating the economy.

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S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

National cost of pandemic response to reach $327bn over five years

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Mar-21

The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that the combined net debt of Australia’s three levels of government will blow out to almost $1.3tn in the five years to 2024. Federal, state and local governments are forecast to collectively spend some $327bn on COVID-19 measures over the five-year period. The independent budget watchdog now expects the national net operating balance across all levels of government in 2020-21 to be a deficit of 11.1 per cent of GDP; it had previously forecast a surplus of 1.7 per cent of GDP for the current financial year.

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AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

States on $500bn debt binge

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 2-Dec-20

Centre for Independent Studies research fellow Robert Carling says that rising state government debt means that some states could have their credit ratings downgraded in coming years. Analysis of state governments’ Budget papers show that their combined debt will top $491bn by mid-2024, compared with just $200bn in June 2020. Carling contends that while some of the increase in debt is inevitable, some states are taking on more debt than necessary. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics in turn says rising debt is better than the alternative of lower debt and an unemployment rate that is higher for longer.

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THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Deficit high but less than predicted

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Original article by Adam Creighton,Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 4 : 28-Sep-20

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to announce a 2020-21 Budget deficit of $198.5bn on 6 October. This is just $14bn higher than the government had forecast in June. Chris Richardson of Deloitte says personal and corporate income tax receipts will exceed the government’s low expectations, while commodity prices have been more resilient than anticipated. He notes that the iron ore price in particular is still well above the Treasury’s projections. However, Deloitte expects federal debt to be about $401bn higher than the government’s pre-pandemic forecasts in 2023.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

AAA rating defies $184b deficit

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Jul-20

The Australian economy will contract by 2.25 per cent in 2020-21, according to forecasts in the federal government’s economic update. The nation’s official unemployment rate is in turn projected to rise from 7.4 per cent at present to 9.25 per cent by the end of the year. Treasury has also forecast a Budget deficit of $85.5bn for 2019-20, rising to around $184.5bn in 2020-21. Meanwhile, the nation’s gross debt is slated to top $851.9bn in 2020-21. Moody’s and S&P have indicated that the economic update will have no impact on Australia’s triple-A credit rating.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS