ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Unions to pursue above-CPI pay rises

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Nov-25

The Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s national secretary Steve Murphy has accused the Reserve Bank of being "out of touch" after it forecast that inflation will remain above its target range for at least six months and there will be negative real wages growth in 2026. He says the RBA blames workers, but "profit-driven price hikes" and "corporate greed" are the real problem. Murphy adds that despite the forecast increase in the inflation rate, the AMWU will be able to achieve real wages growth in upcoming negotiations for new enterprise agreements. The Electrical Trades Union’s national secretary Michael Wright says it also will continue to deliver real pay rises for its members.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, ELECTRICAL TRADES UNION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia could be a winner from US trade war

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Oct-25

Modelling undertaken by EY Oceania has concluded that the Australian economy is likely to be a net beneficiary of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs regime. The firm’s chief economist Cherelle Murphy said the results of the modelling are based on the fact that Australia’s exports to the US will be subject to the ‘baseline’ tariff of just 10 per cent, making the nation’s exports more price competitive; in contrast, some nations are facing punitive tariffs of up to 50 per cent. EY also suggests that the cost of imports will also fall, as some countries are likely to redirect their goods to Australia instead of the US.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG

IMF upgrades Australian growth forecasts, despite tariffs uncertainty

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Original article by Thomas Morgan
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 30-Jul-25

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Australia in 2025 to 1.8 per cent; its previous forecast issued in April was for GDP growth of 1.6 per cent in the current calendar year. The growth outlook for Australian in 2026 has in turn been upgraded from 2.1 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also increased its growth forecasts for the global economy in both 2025 and 2026, although it has cautioned that risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

OECD trims Australian economic growth expectations

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: Online : 4-Jun-25

The OECD now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.8 per cent in 2025, compared with its previous forecast of 1.9 per cent. However, its growth forecast for 2026 has been upgraded from 1.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The Paris-based organisation also expects global economic growth to slow in both 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, Australia’s official GDP data for the March quarter will be released today, and economists from the nation’s four major banks have downgraded their forecasts for economic growth during the period; Westpac is the most bearish, warning of a small risk of negative growth.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

RBA flags spectre of recession

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 21-May-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia considered reducing the cash rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday, rather than its second 25 basis point cut so far in 2025. The central bank noted in its monetary policy statement that inflation is within its target band and is expected to remain there, so it deemed that an interest rate cut was appropriate. However, the RBA cautioned that although upside risks appear to have diminished, international developments are likely to weigh on the domestic economy. The RBA has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the year to June from two per cent to 1.8 per cent, while it has warned of an outside chance that the Trump administration’s trade war could result in a global recession.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Forecast for Australian growth cut

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 23-Apr-25

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Australia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to just 1.6 per cent; its previous forecast issued in January was for GDP growth of 2.1 per cent in the current calendar year. Both the Treasury and the Reserve Bank had also previously forecast economist growth of at least two per cent, although this was before the global turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report also forecasts global growth of just 2.8 per cent this year.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Crash-test dummies without a budget buffer

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Apr-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has released new modelling on the likely impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs regime on the Australian economy. It suggests that the baseline tariff of 10 per cent and the 25 per cent tariff on steel, aluminium and automotive products would be largely neutral for inflation in Australia. Treasury’s ‘best-case’ scenario is that the nation’s real GDP will decline by 0.1 per cent in 2025 and inflation will rise by 0.2 per cent. Meanwhile, the pre-election fiscal outlook shows that the budget deficit is forecast to total $179.5bn over the next four years, while federal government debt is projected to rise to $1.2tn. The nation’s deteriorating fiscal position comes amid fears of a global recession and a $190m fall in the ASX’s market capitalisation since the tariffs were announced last week.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Tariff war impact ‘modest’: Treasury

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 2 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that Australia is now expected to record economic growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2025, compared with forecasts of two per cent growth in the 2024 budget and 1.75 per cent growth in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has conceded that the Trump administration’s tariffs policy will have a slight impact on Australia’s economic growth. The Treasury’s modelling suggests that the combined direct and indirect impact of the tariffs on the Australian economy by 2030 is likely to be modest.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

One in three jobs at serious risk in AI revolution

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Social Policy Group has forecast that artificial intelligence will result in ‘tectonic’ structural changes to the Australian economy and the nation’s workforce. The SPG’s report warns that these changes will be greater than any previous technical revolution. The report’s modelling suggests that in a worst-case scenario, up to 33 per cent of jobs in Australia could be impacted by AI by 2030 if there is no policy or regulatory intervention by govern­ment. The SPG has also expressed concern that Australia will fall behind other OECD economies due to the nation’s reliance on exporting raw materials and its dearth of high-value industries.

CORPORATES
SOCIAL POLICY GROUP

IMF inflation warning: World goes low as we stay high

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Oct-24

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report forecasts that Australia and Slovakia will be the only two advanced economies with headline inflation above three per cent by the end of 2025. The IMF expects Australia’s inflation rate to rise to 3.6 per cent by December 2025, as federal and state government cost-of-living relief is wound back. The IMF had previously forecast in April that Australia’s inflation rate would fall to 2.8 per cent in 2025. While some economists do not expect the Reserve Bank to begin reducing the cash rate until the second half of 2025, the IMF forecasts that other central banks will aggressively ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, the IMF now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2024, compared with its April forecast of 1.5 per cent growth.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA