Jobless blow will be worst since 1930s

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 20-Apr-20

A report from the Grattan Institute has forecast that jobs in the hospitality, arts and recreation, retail and education sectors will be hardest hit by the coronavirus and the measures that have been deployed to contain it. The public policy think tank estimates that 14-26 per cent of Australian workers will soon be out of work, or up to 3.4 million people. In addition, the Grattan Institute warns that the JobKeeper scheme will not prevent the unemployment rate from rising to 10-15 per cent.

CORPORATES
GRATTAN INSTITUTE

IMF jumped the gun with dire forecasts: Frydenberg

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Apr-20

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has downplayed the International Monetary Fund’s latest economic growth and unemployment forecasts for Australia. He argues that they were made prior to pandemic stimulus measures such as the $130bn JobKeeper scheme. New figures show that more than 838,000 businesses have applied for the wage subsidy to date. The IMF has forecast that the domestic economy will contract by 6.7 per cent in 2020, although Alan Oster of National Australia Bank expects GDP growth to fall by just 4.3 per cent.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Worst year since Great Depression

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Apr-20

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the Australian economy will contract by 6.7 per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus lockdown. However, the IMF expects the domestic economy to rebound by 6.1 per cent in 2021, assuming that measures to contain the virus are successful. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook also forecasts that global GDP growth will fall by three per cent in 2020, compared with just 0.1 per cent during the global financial crisis. The IMF has warned of the potential for a second wave of the coronavirus if a vaccine is not developed.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Australia set to emerge with V-shaped recovery

Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 15-Apr-20

Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital forecasts that the majority of developed economies will record a 3-5 per cent decline in GDP growth for 2020. A recent quarterly survey of economists found that the median forecast is for a 3.9 per cent decline in Australia’s GDP growth for the year. Toohey says the domestic economy is likely to experience a V-shaped recovery when it eventually comes. He adds that the "biggest unknown" is just how long the coronavirus lockdown restrictions will remain in place.

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YARRA CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD

Economy to contract almost 4pc in 2020

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 23 : 6-Apr-20

The median forecast of economists is that the Australian economy will contract by 3.9 per cent in calendar 2020, and by 1.1 per cent in the year to 30 June. The quarterly survey of economics also shows that the economy is expected to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2020-21, while economic growth is not forecast to rebound from the coronavirus until the end of 2021. Meanwhile, economists generally expect the unemployment rate to peak at 8.5 per cent by the end of June 2020, compared with 5.1 per cent at present. The inflation rate in turn is forecast to be 1.4 per cent in June, falling to 1.25 per cent by the end of the year.

CORPORATES

Government unveils new jobs site as economists revise down unemployment forecasts

Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

More than 26,000 vacancies have been listed on the federal government’s new Jobs Hub website, and this is expected to top 50,000 in the next week. The site features employment opportunities across a range of industries. The launch of Jobs Hub has coincided with the release of official data showing that the number of job vacancies nationwide fell by 0.1 per cent in February and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, Westpac now expects the unemployment rate to peak at nine per cent – rather than its previous forecast of 17 per cent – due to the government’s wage subsidy scheme.

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WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Brace for a record fall in GDP

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Mar-20

JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman expects GDP to fall by 10 per cent in the June quarter due to the coronavirus lockdown measures. The previous largest quarterly decline in GDP was just two per cent in 1974. Jarman also forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to 11 per cent during the quarter, a view shared by Bill Evans of Westpac. However, Evans expects GDP to fall by just 3.5 per cent in the quarter. Westpac economists have also forecast a Budget deficit of $90bn in 2019-20 due to the federal government’s stimulus measures, and a deficit of $160bn in 2020-21.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Jobless rate could hit 13.8pc despite priming of the pump

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Mar-20

The federal government and the Reserve Bank have now announced a combined $189bn worth of coronavirus stimulus measures. This includes cash payments for small businesses and non-profit organisations. However, many companies that operate in sectors that employ a lot of people will not be eligible for financial relief. The construction, retail, hospitality, recreation and education are major employers; it is estimated that the unemployment rate would rise from 5.1 per cent to 13.8 per cent if they shed just 25 per cent of their workforce, or about 1.2 million people.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Major hit, big job losses ahead: RBA

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says the unemployment rate can be expected to rise in coming months, as the coronavirus is likely to result in "significant" job losses. However, he says the labour market should rebound quite fast if the virus’s outbreak in Australia can be contained. Lowe also said the virus and measures to combat its spread will have a "severe" impact on the economy, although he is hopeful that this will be temporary. Lowe has indicated that housing market activity is likely to be affected by the pandemic.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Virus to shatter weak consumer confidence

Original article by Elias Visontay
The Australian – Page: 18 : 16-Mar-20

KPMG has stated that the coronavirus could result in an 0.9 per cent hit to the Australian economy in 2020, and that up to 36 million work days could be lost. Simon Bligh, the CEO of data analytics company Ilion, notes that there was a big jump in people falling behind in credit card and mortgage repayments in the lead-up to the virus outbreak, while he suggests that consumer confidence could fall to its lowest point since the global financial crisis as a result of the coronavirus. Bligh contends that the $750 payments being made to low-income earners as part of the federal government’s $17.6 billion stimulus program are a "great initiative".

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KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ILION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION