ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Spending forecasts raise GDP fears

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 29-Nov-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that business investment fell by 0.2 per cent in the September quarter and by 1.3 per cent year-on-year. Mining investment increased by 1.2 per cent in the year to September, while investment in equipment, plant and machinery was down 3.5 per cent. Josh Williamson of Citigroup says the latter figure is likely to reduce GDP growth in the September quarter by 0.15 percentage points.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Monetary policy beats fiscal stimulus

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 24-Oct-19

Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy is upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy. He has told the Senate estimates committee that the economy is growing ‘modestly’ and it should continue to strengthen. Kennedy also contended that monetary policy is still a better option for boosting economic growth than fiscal stimulus. He also stressed the need for structural reform and an increase in labour productivity.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. SENATE STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

PM to keep his cool on economy

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Simon Benson, Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 17-Oct-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the Australian economy, arguing that good economic and financial management is needed in times of uncertainty. Labor leader Anthony ­Albanese has responded to the International Monetary Fund’s latest downgrade of its economic growth forecast for Australia by calling for a stimulus package. Former federal treasurer Peter Costello has in turn urged supply-side reforms, arguing that fiscal and monetary policy have reached the limits of their effectiveness.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Surplus safe with fast-track tax cuts

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 6 : 16-Oct-19

The Centre for Independent Studies has released a report which warns that the federal government’s changes to the low- to medium-income tax offset will decrease­ GDP and the economic efficiency of the tax system. The report’s author, John Humphreys, estimates that the LMITO will reduce revenue by $35bn over the next four years, as it provides a disincentive to work. He adds that the second and third stages of the government’s tax cuts package will reduce revenue by $145bn over 10 years, and argues that the tax cuts can be brought forward without jeopardising Budget surpluses.

CORPORATES
THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

IMF: global growth at decade low

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Oct-19

The International Monetary Fund now expects global economic growth of three per cent in 2019, and has warned of a synchronised global slowdown. The IMF also expects the US-China trade war to reduce global growth by 0.8 per cent over the next two years. Australia’s economic growth forecast for 2019 has been downgraded from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, prompting shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers to urge the federal government to bring forward its mid-year Budget update. However, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the domestic economy is still growing faster than all G7 nations except the US.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA eyes housing rebound as economic growth slows

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 4-Sep-19

The latest national accounts data is expected to show that Australia’s GDP growth slowed to about 1.5 per cent in the year to June, well below the federal government’s May 2019 Budget forecast of 2.25 per cent growth. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that economic growth will improve "gradually"; he notes that although new housing construction activity remains weak, there are signs of an upturn in the established housing market. The central bank’s decision to leave official interest rates on hold in September coincided with the release of data confirming a current account surplus of $5.9bn for the June quarter, the first since the 1970s.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Look through soft growth

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Sep-19

There is speculation that the latest national accounts data will show that Australia’s growth slowed to about 1.4 per cent in the year to June. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says GDP data for the June quarter is likely to be particularly weak, given that it was dominated by the federal election and the US-China trade war. He expects economic conditions to improve in the September quarter, citing stimulatory factors such as the Coalition’s income tax cuts and back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July. Frydenberg stresses that the Australian economy’s fundamentals remain strong.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Investment outlook clouded by global risks

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 30-Aug-19

Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics expects the upcoming national accounts data to show that the Australian economy grew by just 0.2 per cent in the June quarter. This follows the release of data showing an 0.5 per cent decline in private new capital expenditure during the quarter; financial markets had anticipated an increase of 0.4 per cent. However, there has been a 16.7 per rise in capital expenditure intentions for 2019-20, with capex estimates in the mining sector revised upwards by 17.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Hard economic landing would deliver a body blow

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 4 : 29-Aug-19

PwC’s chief economist Jeremy Thorpe has warned of the potential impact on Australia if the Chinese economy experiences a hard landing. He says the resulting downturn in Australia’s exports to China would reduce government revenue from corporate taxes and mining royalties, while Budget surplus forecasts would need to revised. Thorpe adds that there could also be mine closures and job losses in the resources sector if lower Chinese demand puts downward pressure on commodity prices.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED

Chinese trade pullback could cost $25bn

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 22-Aug-19

Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs warns that the fallout from the US-China trade war could eventually hit Australia. He says growing tensions between Australia and China could potentially result in a sharp fall in Chinese demand for key Australian exports, including education and commodities such as iron ore and coal. Goldman Sachs suggests that in a worst-case scenario, lower Chinese demand could reduce Australia’s GDP growth rate by 130 basis points in 2020.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES COMPANY LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG