ECONOMIC FORECASTING

IMF vows to do whatever it takes

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 21-Oct-19

The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2020, after recently scaling back its 2019 growth forecast to three per cent. The IMF’s International Monetary & Financial Committee concluded its annual meeting in Washington on 20 October; it released a communique in which it committed to using all appropriate policy tools to bolster global growth. The communique also acknowledged the need to resolve trade tensions.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF ENGLAND, WORLD BANK, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Stocks lashed by recession fears

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 4-Oct-19

Factors such as growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and a ruling from the WTO that has cleared the US to impose tariffs on European Union imports have weighed on investors worldwide. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 2.9 per cent so far in October, while the S&P 500 in the US has fallen by three per cent. Aaryn Nania of Lucerne Investment Partners warns that investors should expect further market volatility, although Robert Buckland of Citigroup says it is too soon to predict a recession in the US and the end of the bull market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, LUCERNE INVESTMENT PARTNERS, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX

US-China war may cost $652bn

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Original article by James Dean
The Australian – Page: 26 : 7-Jun-19

International Monetary Fund MD Christine Lagarde says a worsening of the trade dispute between the US and China will cause "self-inflicted wounds". The IMF has estimated that the global economy will take a $US455 billion ($652 billion) hit in 2020 if the trade war escalates further. Lagarde notes that protectionist measures make traded consumer goods more expensive and cause disproportionate harm to low-income households.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Danger of global slide, IMF warns

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Original article by David Uren, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 22-Jan-19

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 from 3.7 per cent to 3.5 per cent. Chief economist Gita Gop­inath says global economic growth is slowing at a faster pace than had been expected, warning that there is a heightened risk of a more significant downgrade in the IMF’s growth forecasts. The downgrade has coincided with the release of data showing that economic growth in China fell from 6.8 per cent to 6.6 per cent in 2018, its lowest level in almost three decades.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CHINA. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

BHP cuts US, China growth targets on trade tensions

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 31-Oct-18

BHP Billiton has forecast that GDP growth for both China and the US will be cut by 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent over the next two years as a result of the trade war between the two nations. However, BHP’s chief commercial officer Arnoud Balhuizen says the trade tensions have not yet had a "material impact" on the resources giant, even though it has weighed on the prices of some commodities. Balhuizen expects demand for iron ore and coking coal to remain strong in 2019.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Economic outlook clouded but IMF forecasts may be wide of the mark

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 25 : 10-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Maurice Obstfeld has conceded that rising trade tensions means its previous forecast for global economic growth may have been "over optimistic". The IMF has cut its growth forecast from 3.9 per cent to 3.7 per cent, but the ANZ Bank’s chief economist Richard Yetsenga anticipates global growth of nearly four per cent. ANZ also expects China’s economy to grow at a slightly higher pace in 2019 than the IMF has forecast.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Trade war pain will be felt globally: OECD

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 21-Sep-18

A report from the OECD has warned that the US-China trade war could undermine global economic growth. The interim economic outlook report notes that the tariff war has already had an impact on the global trade growth rate, which slowed significantly during the first half of 2018. The OECD says global investment, jobs and living standards will be adversely affected if the trade war escalates. It also expects the US to record GDP growth of 2.9 per cent year-on-year in 2018, while it still expects growth of 6.7 per cent in China. Australia’s GDP growth rate is forecast to be 2.9 per cent in 2018 and three per cent in 2019.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS LIMITED, L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD

BHP slashes global growth forecasts as tariff tensions bite

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 27-Aug-18

BHP Billiton now expects global economic growth in 2019 and 2020 to be within the range of 3.25-3.75 per cent, compared with its previous range of 3.5-4 per cent. The resources giant attributes its growth downgrade to the US-China trade war, although BHP’s Huw McKay says demand for most of its commodities is likely to rise in the medium-term. The International Monetary Fund has maintained its growth forecast of 3.9 per for 2018 and 2019, although it recently indicated that the tariff war could prompt a downgrade of its forecast for 2020.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Low rates may trigger shock

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 3 : 6-Jul-18

Keeping official interest rates low for too long could have dire consequences, according to the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on the Global Financial System. The committee warns that it could lead to a rise in inflation, which in turn would force central banks to hike up interest rates, resulting in a global recession. Under one scenario put forward by the committee, inflation could rise by two per cent, forcing central banks to lift short-term interest rates by 300 basis points. In Australia, this would result in economic growth falling to 0.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Trump the big threat to numbers

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Original article by Geoff Winestock
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B9 : 9-May-18

The Treasury has noted in the May 2018 Budget papers that changes to trade policies in a country like the US could have a significant impact on many other economies around the world. Its view of the global economy is generally positive, but contends that the consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could impact negatively on its outlook. In commenting on trade policy changes, Treasury noted that many components in goods exported from countries like the US and Japan have been imported from other nations.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION