ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.7 points to 73.4 following launch of US and Israeli attacks on Iran

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.7 points to 73.4 in the week to 8 March; it is now 13.5pts lower than a year ago (86.9), and 5.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 79.2. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States including in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, but up in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress dropped to lowest for three years in January, but is set to increase as interest rates rise in 2026

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 23.9% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in January 2026, down 4% points from August 2025. This is the lowest proportion of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since January 2023. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has decreased by 449,000 compared to a year ago, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the number of Australians considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 789,000 (15.9% of mortgage holders); this is just below the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Spending surges higher than expected

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 6 : 4-Mar-26

The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects an 0.9 per cent increase in public sector demand in the December quarter to contribute 0.3 percentage points to GDP for the period. Public demand, which comprises all federal, state and local government spending and investment, totalled $198bn in the three months to December. Citigroup’s chief economist Joshua Williamson expects GDP growth of one per cent for the December quarter following stronger-than-expected public sector demand. Some economists anticipate annual GDP growth of up to 2.7 per cent in data to be released today.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.1 points to 77.1 driven by falling confidence about the economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1 points to 77.1 in the week to 1 March; it is now 10.6pts lower than a year ago (87.7), and 2.9pts below the 2026 weekly average of 80.0. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.1 points to 80.2 driven by rising confidence about the Australian economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.1 points to 80.2 in the week to 22 February; it is now 9.6pts lower than a year ago (89.8), and in line with the 2026 weekly average of 80.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence is rising in most States (including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia), but down in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 24% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (down 2ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.2% in mid-February – down 0.3% points from the month of January

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026, averaging 5.4% over the first seven weeks and were at 5.2% for the week of 16-22 February (down 0.3% points from the full month of January). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for January shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – unchanged from the prior month of December, and the equal highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since late August 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.2%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for January shows increases in Tasmania, Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria, but sharp declines in both Queensland and South Australia cancelling out the overall movement. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 3,023 Australians aged 14+ in January 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.49 million in January; Real Unemployment surges to 1.82 million

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-26

In January 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 149,000 to 1,818,000 (11.2% of the workforce, up 0.8%), although under-employment dropped 111,000 to 1,676,000 (down 0.8% to 10.3%). Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at a record high just above 16.2 million in January – 16,212,000 to be exact, up 115,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.6% of Australians aged 14+. Australian employment trends followed the usual workforce movements after Christmas with part-time employment down 206,000 to 5,073,000 after the end of the Christmas retailing season with many temporary jobs, and equivalent to 35.2% of employed Australians. In addition, full-time employment increased 173,000 to 9,321,000, and equivalent to 64.8% of employed Australians. This led to overall employment dropping 34,000 to 14,394,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 77.1 in mid-February – remains near two-year lows

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 77.1 in the week to 15 February, near the more than two-year low reached a week ago; it is now 8pts lower than a year ago (85.1), and 3.3pts below the 2026 weekly average of 80.4. Analysis by State shows shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, down in Western Australia, and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, only 22% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since July 1989), while 37% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.6pts to 76.9 – down over 7pts in two weeks to lowest since December 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.6pts to 76.9 in the week to 8 February; it is now 9.8pts lower than a year ago (86.7), and 4.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 81.0. Analysis by State shows that the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in more than two years hit confidence everywhere, with a uniform fall in confidence across all States this week. Now just 16% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, only 22% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since July 1989), while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 39% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumps 7.6pts to 97.4 in January – the lowest confidence rating since April 2025

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Feb-26

In January 2026 Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumped 7.6pts to 97.4, its lowest rating since April 2025 (96.7). The result followed a spike in inflationary pressures, with the official ABS annual inflation estimates for November at 3.4% (released in early January), and now jumping to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025 (released in late January). Business Confidence is now 12.3pts below the long-term average of 109.7, and down 10.8pts from January 2025. Now 27.2% (down 7.9ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 29.7% (down 2.2ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2021). Just 33.3% (down 13.1ppts) expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 24.4% (up 5.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 34.9% (down 5.4ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 36.9% (up 2.8ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED