ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.61 million in February; Real Unemployment at 1.72 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

In February 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 97,000 to 1,721,000 (10.6% of the workforce, down 0.6%), although under-employment surged 216,000 to a record high of 1,892,000 (up 1.3% to 11.6%). In total, 3.61 million Australians (22.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at a record high just above 16.2 million in February – 16,263,000 to be exact, up 51,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.8% of Australians aged 14+. Employment increased by 148,000 to 14,542,000; driving the increase was a rise in part-time employment (up 169,000 to 5,242,000), while full-time employment fell 21,000 to 9,300,000.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 8.8pts to 88.6 in February – before the conflict in the Middle East even began

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

IIn February 2026, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 8.8pts to 88.6, its lowest level since September 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business Confidence has now dropped by 16.4pts in the last two months, the largest two-month fall since August 2021. The result came after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to 3.85% in early February, its first interest rate increase since November 2023. It is important to note that this result for Business Confidence came before the Israeli and US attacks on Iran which began on the final day of February and have already sent oil and gas prices soaring. Business Confidence is now 20pts below the long-term average of 109.6, and down 19.9 points from a year ago. Now 24.7% (down 2.5ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 41.3% (up 11.6ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2024). Just 37.1% (up 3.8ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 24.8% (up 0.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 33.8% (down 1.1ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 41% (up 4.1ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA delivers recession warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.9 points to 68.5 – lowest Consumer Confidence since start of pandemic

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.9 points to 68.5 in the week to 15 March; it is now 15.3pts lower than a year ago (83.8), and 9.7pts below the 2026 weekly average of 78.2. The only occasion Consumer Confidence was lower was the weekend of 28-29 March 2020, at the very start of the COVID-19 pandemic when widespread lockdowns were first introduced. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia, but up slightly in Victoria. Now 15% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (this is the lowest net result for this indicator since December 2023). Looking forward, 21% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 5% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 49% (up 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since August 2020). Meanwhile, 16% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 47% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2025).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.7 points to 73.4 following launch of US and Israeli attacks on Iran

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.7 points to 73.4 in the week to 8 March; it is now 13.5pts lower than a year ago (86.9), and 5.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 79.2. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States including in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, but up in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress dropped to lowest for three years in January, but is set to increase as interest rates rise in 2026

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 23.9% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in January 2026, down 4% points from August 2025. This is the lowest proportion of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since January 2023. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has decreased by 449,000 compared to a year ago, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the number of Australians considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 789,000 (15.9% of mortgage holders); this is just below the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Spending surges higher than expected

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 6 : 4-Mar-26

The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects an 0.9 per cent increase in public sector demand in the December quarter to contribute 0.3 percentage points to GDP for the period. Public demand, which comprises all federal, state and local government spending and investment, totalled $198bn in the three months to December. Citigroup’s chief economist Joshua Williamson expects GDP growth of one per cent for the December quarter following stronger-than-expected public sector demand. Some economists anticipate annual GDP growth of up to 2.7 per cent in data to be released today.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.1 points to 77.1 driven by falling confidence about the economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1 points to 77.1 in the week to 1 March; it is now 10.6pts lower than a year ago (87.7), and 2.9pts below the 2026 weekly average of 80.0. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.1 points to 80.2 driven by rising confidence about the Australian economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.1 points to 80.2 in the week to 22 February; it is now 9.6pts lower than a year ago (89.8), and in line with the 2026 weekly average of 80.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence is rising in most States (including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia), but down in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 24% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (down 2ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.2% in mid-February – down 0.3% points from the month of January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026, averaging 5.4% over the first seven weeks and were at 5.2% for the week of 16-22 February (down 0.3% points from the full month of January). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for January shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – unchanged from the prior month of December, and the equal highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since late August 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.2%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for January shows increases in Tasmania, Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria, but sharp declines in both Queensland and South Australia cancelling out the overall movement. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 3,023 Australians aged 14+ in January 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ