ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slumps 5.2pts to 79.3; lowest Consumer Confidence for 18 months since July 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.2pts to 79.3 in the week to 18 January; it is now 6.5pts lower than a year ago (85.8), and 7pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Consumer Confidence is now at its lowest level since the week of 8-14 July 2024 (78.5). Analysis by State shows large falls in New South Wales and Queensland, and small falls in Victoria and South Australia, while Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 45% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 4ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since November 2023), while 34% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 6ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (up 6ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2025).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-January – up 0.1% points from the month of December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026 and were at 5.6% for the week of 12-18 January, up 0.1% points from the full month of December 2025. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2025 shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – up 0.4% points from the prior month of November, the highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-July, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.1%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for December shows increases in all five mainland States, but a decline in the island State of Tasmania (down 0.9% to 5.1%, and now clearly the lowest Inflation Expectations of any State). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.46 million in December – 13 months straight above 3 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

In December 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 41,000 to 1,669,000 (up 0.2%, to 10.4% of the workforce). More people were looking for full-time work in December (up 68,000 to 667,000), although there were fewer people looking for part-time work (down 27,000 to 1,002,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.79 million Australians (11.1% of the workforce, up 0.4%) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 78,000 from November). In total 3.46 million Australians (21.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December. Meanwhile, employment increased by 89,000 to 14,428,000; Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 16,097,000 in December (up 130,000 on a month ago), and representing 69.2% of Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-December – up 0.3% points from the month of November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a two-year high of 5.6% for the week of 8-14 December 2025, up 0.3% points from the full month of November; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2025 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.1% points from the prior month of November, but since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4%, and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for November shows increases around Australia in four States, but significant declines in Western Australia and South Australia. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Bankers hoping busy year will see M&A cash roll in

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 7-Jan-26

Data from Dealogic shows that $US92.8bn worth of mergers and acquisitions targeting Australian companies were announced during 2025; this eight per cent higher than in 2024, and the highest level of activity since calendar 2021. Australia-based companies in turn pursued $US11.82bn worth of deals offshore. Marissa Freund from Goldman Sachs and Tim Joyce from Macquarie Capital are amongst those who expect M&A activity to remain strong in 2026. Meanwhile, global M&A activity totalled $US5.1trn in 2025, which is 42 per cent higher year-on-year.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD

Pay rises slow but still beat inflation

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 7 : 24-Dec-25

Data from the Department of Employment & Workplace Relations shows that the average pay rise in new enterprise agreements across the economy was an above-inflation 3.8 per cent in the September quarter; this compares with 4.2 per cent in the June quarter. The average increase in public sector wages was 3.6 per cent, compared with four per cent in the private sector. Workplace Relations Amanda Rishworth says the data shows that Labor’s industrial relations reforms are "reinvigorating" enterprise bargaining. However, the figures show that 2.65 million workers were covered by enterprise agreements in the September quarter, down from a record 2.81 million in the three months to June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2pts to 81.5; plunges to its lowest for over a year since August 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2pts to 81.5 in the week to 14 December; it is now 2.4pts lower than a year ago (83.9), and 2.8pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Analysis by State shows a split result, with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up in Queensland after plunging a week ago. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.34 million in November – 12 months straight above 3 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Dec-25

In November 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,628,000 (10.2% of the workforce). There were fewer people looking for full-time work (down 89,000 to 599,000), which was largely offset by the rise in people looking for part-time work (up 80,000 to 1,029,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.71 million Australians (10.7% of the workforce, up 0.3%) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (63,000 from October). In total 3.34 million Australians (20.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, employment increased by 119,000 to 14,339,000; Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,967,000 in November, up 110,000 on a month ago, and representing 68.8% of Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2pts to 83.5, as buying sentiment plunges after Black Friday sales weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Dec-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2pts to 83.5 in the week to 7 December; it is now 2pts lower than a year ago (85.5), and 0.9pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows a split result, with Consumer Confidence down significantly in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but up slightly in New South Wales and Victoria. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.6pts to 85.5, despite net buying sentiment reaching its highest level since March 2022 amid the growing Black Friday sales weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.6pts to 85.5 in the week to 30 November; it is now 2.9pts lower than a year ago (88.4), but 0.9pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows a split result, with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales and Victoria, but up in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 27% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 29% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 31% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ