ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.49 million in January; Real Unemployment surges to 1.82 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-26

In January 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 149,000 to 1,818,000 (11.2% of the workforce, up 0.8%), although under-employment dropped 111,000 to 1,676,000 (down 0.8% to 10.3%). Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at a record high just above 16.2 million in January – 16,212,000 to be exact, up 115,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.6% of Australians aged 14+. Australian employment trends followed the usual workforce movements after Christmas with part-time employment down 206,000 to 5,073,000 after the end of the Christmas retailing season with many temporary jobs, and equivalent to 35.2% of employed Australians. In addition, full-time employment increased 173,000 to 9,321,000, and equivalent to 64.8% of employed Australians. This led to overall employment dropping 34,000 to 14,394,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 77.1 in mid-February – remains near two-year lows

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 77.1 in the week to 15 February, near the more than two-year low reached a week ago; it is now 8pts lower than a year ago (85.1), and 3.3pts below the 2026 weekly average of 80.4. Analysis by State shows shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, down in Western Australia, and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, only 22% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since July 1989), while 37% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.6pts to 76.9 – down over 7pts in two weeks to lowest since December 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.6pts to 76.9 in the week to 8 February; it is now 9.8pts lower than a year ago (86.7), and 4.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 81.0. Analysis by State shows that the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in more than two years hit confidence everywhere, with a uniform fall in confidence across all States this week. Now just 16% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, only 22% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since July 1989), while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 39% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumps 7.6pts to 97.4 in January – the lowest confidence rating since April 2025

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Feb-26

In January 2026 Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumped 7.6pts to 97.4, its lowest rating since April 2025 (96.7). The result followed a spike in inflationary pressures, with the official ABS annual inflation estimates for November at 3.4% (released in early January), and now jumping to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025 (released in late January). Business Confidence is now 12.3pts below the long-term average of 109.7, and down 10.8pts from January 2025. Now 27.2% (down 7.9ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 29.7% (down 2.2ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2021). Just 33.3% (down 13.1ppts) expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 24.4% (up 5.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 34.9% (down 5.4ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 36.9% (up 2.8ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.5pts to 80.5 after inflation spikes to 3.8% and spurs talk of interest rate rises

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.5pts to 80.5 in the week to 1 February; it is now 8pts lower than a year ago (88.5), and 1.6pts below the 2026 weekly average of 82.1. Analysis by State shows decreases in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, but increases in both Western Australia and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 24% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), while 36% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since June 2024). Only 8% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 39% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slumps 5.2pts to 79.3; lowest Consumer Confidence for 18 months since July 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.2pts to 79.3 in the week to 18 January; it is now 6.5pts lower than a year ago (85.8), and 7pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Consumer Confidence is now at its lowest level since the week of 8-14 July 2024 (78.5). Analysis by State shows large falls in New South Wales and Queensland, and small falls in Victoria and South Australia, while Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 45% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 4ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since November 2023), while 34% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 6ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (up 6ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2025).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-January – up 0.1% points from the month of December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026 and were at 5.6% for the week of 12-18 January, up 0.1% points from the full month of December 2025. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2025 shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – up 0.4% points from the prior month of November, the highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-July, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.1%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for December shows increases in all five mainland States, but a decline in the island State of Tasmania (down 0.9% to 5.1%, and now clearly the lowest Inflation Expectations of any State). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.46 million in December – 13 months straight above 3 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

In December 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 41,000 to 1,669,000 (up 0.2%, to 10.4% of the workforce). More people were looking for full-time work in December (up 68,000 to 667,000), although there were fewer people looking for part-time work (down 27,000 to 1,002,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.79 million Australians (11.1% of the workforce, up 0.4%) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 78,000 from November). In total 3.46 million Australians (21.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December. Meanwhile, employment increased by 89,000 to 14,428,000; Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 16,097,000 in December (up 130,000 on a month ago), and representing 69.2% of Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-December – up 0.3% points from the month of November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a two-year high of 5.6% for the week of 8-14 December 2025, up 0.3% points from the full month of November; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2025 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.1% points from the prior month of November, but since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4%, and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for November shows increases around Australia in four States, but significant declines in Western Australia and South Australia. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Bankers hoping busy year will see M&A cash roll in

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 7-Jan-26

Data from Dealogic shows that $US92.8bn worth of mergers and acquisitions targeting Australian companies were announced during 2025; this eight per cent higher than in 2024, and the highest level of activity since calendar 2021. Australia-based companies in turn pursued $US11.82bn worth of deals offshore. Marissa Freund from Goldman Sachs and Tim Joyce from Macquarie Capital are amongst those who expect M&A activity to remain strong in 2026. Meanwhile, global M&A activity totalled $US5.1trn in 2025, which is 42 per cent higher year-on-year.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD