ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: headline index eases slightly

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence slipped 0.7% to 112.6 in the week ended 5 November 2017, a touch under its long-term average of 112.9. The details were broadly negative, with four out of five sub-indices showing falls. The outlook on economic conditions in the next year rose 2.1%, partially offsetting a 4.5% fall in the previous week. The sub-index on longer-term future economic conditions fell 2.8% to its lowest value in eight weeks. Meanwhile, consumers’ views about current financial conditions eased 0.5% after a solid 5.3% jump the previous week, and the outlook for future financial conditions fell for the third straight week, bringing the index down to its lowest point in 11 weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

2.334 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Nov-17

A Roy Morgan survey has found that 1.226 million Australians were unemployed in October, an increase of 38,000 over the same time in 2016. A further 1.108 million Australians were under-employed, down 138,000 on the same time in 2016. The number of Australians in employment in October totalled 11,767,000, an increase of 104,000 over the past year, with the increase largely due to a rise in full-time jobs. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says employment growth has eased in the second half of 2017, while he notes the end of car manufacturing in Australia in October will have a flow-on effect to several automotive parts manufacturers and suppliers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Home loans break trillion dollar barrier

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 21 : 1-Nov-17

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has reported that the value of mortgage loans written for owner-occupiers rose by 0.5 per cent in September, to $A1.03bn. Meanwhile, there was 0.3 per cent growth across the mortgage lending sector during the month. Separate data from the Reserve Bank shows that there was 0.5 per cent growth in housing loans in September, while year-on-year growth rose from 6.4 per cent to 6.5 per cent. In contrast, annual growth in business lending was 4.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ME BANK, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 113.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged 0.1% higher to 113.4 in the week ended 29 October 2017, after an 0.8% rise in the previous week. The steady headline result masks some variation between the sub-indices. The outlook on economic conditions in the next year fell 4.5%, more than entirely unwinding the previous 4.3% rise and bringing the sub-index to its lowest value in seven weeks. Consumers were also less optimistic about future economic conditions. This sub-index slipped 1.5%, partially reversing the 3.5% increase in the previous week. In contrast, views about current financial conditions rose a solid 5.3% to 108.4, the highest value since mid-June. The outlook for future financial conditions fell by 1.9%, following a 0.9% fall the previous week. Both sub-indices remain above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Is the low-wage tide about to turn? Signals look good, Treasury says

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 26-Oct-17

Treasury secretary John Fraser has told a Senate estimates hearing that there are indications that wages growth is gaining pace in some sectors of the economy and some geographical areas. Fraser noted that many workers have been reluctant to press for pay rises in the wake of the global financial crisis, which he adds has resulted in the longest business cycle he has experienced.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA held up by flagging inflation

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 26-Oct-17

Official data shows that growth in Australia’s headline consumer prices was below expectations at just 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, for an annual inflation rate of 1.8 per cent. Growth in the core inflation rate slowed to 0.3-0.4 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in the June quarter. The data has dampened expectations that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate in the near-term, with financial markets now pricing in a 36 per cent chance of a rate rise by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up 0.8% to 113.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 113.3 in the week ended 22 October 2017. This takes the index back above its long-term average. The gain was driven by improvements in expectations for the near- and long-term economic outlook. The outlook on economic conditions over the coming year improved by 4.3% to 103.5, the highest since July, and above the long-term average for the first time in two months. Expectations about economic conditions in the next five years rose 3.5%. Meanwhile, consumers’ views about current financial conditions fell for a second consecutive week, bringing the index value close to the long-term average. The outlook for future financial conditions fell by 0.9% after two consecutive positive readings in the prior weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs market ‘a thing of beauty’ set to boost pay

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Oct-17

More than 300,000 jobs have been created in Australia during the last year, but Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that this will slow to less than 200,000 in the next 12 months. He also expects wages to begin increasing, while inflation will continue to rise at a slow pace over the next several years. Richardson adds that official interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, while a range of factors suggest that business investment will increase.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Rate rise firming after stronger jobs growth

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 20-Oct-17

A rise in official interest rates may be on the agenda in 2018 after Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.6 per cent to 5.5 per cent in September 2017, with a higher-than-expected 19,800 jobs being created during the month. The economy has added 317,000 jobs in the last year, which is the highest annual rate of growth since August 2005. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to leave interest rates on hold until at least 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX API

Inflation Expectations fall to 4.4% in September

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Oct-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for September 2017. This is down 0.1% in a month, although it is up 0.3% from September 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 5.4%, followed by Victoria (4.7%) and New South Wales and Queensland (4.3%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that L-NP supporters (3.9%) and Greens supporters (4.1%) have the lowest Inflation Expectations, while ALP supporters (4.4%) are in line with the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED