ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Soaring electricity prices an obstacle to wage rises

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Original article by Jacob Greber, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 8-Sep-17

Employers’ groups have warned that the rising cost of electricity is affecting their capacity to grant pay rises. Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox notes that companies’ margins are being hurt by rising power costs, while consumers in turn are reducing their overall spending due to the impact of power price hikes. Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson adds that many companies are delaying investment decision due to rising power costs, and some are considering relocating offshore.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Australia’s real unemployment is up to 10.2% in August

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Sep-17

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.324 million Australians were unemployed (10.2% of the workforce) in August 2017. This is similar to a year ago (down 8,000, or 0.2%). However, more Australians are now under-employed than this time last year; 1.241 million (9.5%) Australians are looking for work or looking for more work), up a significant 324,000 (2.4%) in a year. In total, 2.565 million (19.7%) Australians were unemployed or under-employed in August – the 23rd straight month more than 2 million Australians were looking for work or looking for more work. The figures also show that 11,685,000 Australians were employed in August – an increase of 162,000 over the past year (an average of 13,500 jobs added per month). The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for July (5.6%). Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the large increase in part-time jobs over the last year (up 535,000 or about 45,000 per month) obscures the loss of full-time jobs (down 373,000, just over 30,000 per month).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Wage growth going backwards

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 7-Sep-17

National accounts data shows that 240,000 jobs were created in Australia during the year to June 2017. However, the figures also show that wages grew by just 0.7 per cent in the June quarter and 2.1 per cent year-on-year. Likewise, annual growth in compensation per hour is at its lowest level in almost 25 years, at negative 0.3 per cent in the June quarter. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe recently forecast that growth in wages in some sectors will eventually be extended to the broader economy, but the national accounts data suggests that this is not yet occurring.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Edges Higher – up 0.6pts to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Sep-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged up 0.5% to 114.1 in the week ended 3 September 2017, following a 3.9% rise in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions slipped 2.0%, partially unwinding the previous 4.7% rise. Similarly, sentiment around future financial conditions fell 1.7%, following a solid 6.4% increase earlier. Despite the fall, confidence in overall financial conditions remains close to its long-term average. Meanwhile, consumers’ views towards current and future economic conditions posted another solid rise (2.6% and 5.5% respectively). Even so, views towards both current and future economic conditions are running below long-run averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.5% in August. Generations Y & Z consistently have highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for August 2017. This is up 0.2% in a month and up 0.6% from August 2016. However, it is well below the seven-year average of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 4.9%, closely followed by New South Wales (4.8%) and Queensland (4.6%). Inflation Expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average. Analysing Inflation Expectations by generations reveals a clear split in how different generations view Inflation. The two youngest generations consistently have higher Inflation Expectations than older generations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence down in August to 114.4 as high energy prices a threat to economic growth

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-17

Business Confidence in Australia fell 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.4 in August 2017, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, following extensive discussions about the high cost of energy in Australia. However, businesses remain largely positive with a majority of businesses expecting to be "better off" financially this time next year (51.7%), and most businesses say now is a good time to invest in growing the business (54.9%). The fall in Business Confidence was driven by large falls in confidence in several industries including Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water and Personal, repair and other services.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Kim’s bomb the bleak balance for the upbeat

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Sep-17

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says there is potential for equity markets to experience a correction, although this could depend on the response to North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb. Meanwhile, Oliver says profit growth in Australia remains significantly lower than in the US, Europe and Japan. He anticipates GDP growth of 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 1.5 per cent growth year-on-year. A survey by Bloomberg shows that the general consensus is for GDP growth of 0.7 per cent for the quarter and 1.8 per cent for the year to June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Corporates finally ramp up capex

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Sep-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that private-sector companies anticipate capital expenditure of $A101.8bn in 2017-18. This is 17.6 per cent higher than had been forecast three months ago, and compares with analysts’ expectations of $A95.9bn. The figures also show that there was an 0.8 per cent increase in capex during the final quarter of 2016-17. Telstra and Santos are among the companies that have recently announced plans for increased capex in 2017-18.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, PERENNIAL VALUE MANAGEMENT LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: volatility reigns

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Aug-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 3.9% to 113.5 in the week ended 27 August 2017, after three straight weekly falls. Sentiment rose across the board, with views towards personal finances showing a particularly solid improvement. Households’ views towards current financial conditions bounced 4.7%, more than reversing the 4.1% fall over the previous two weeks and bringing the index to an 11-week high. Similarly, sentiment around future financial conditions rose a solid 6.4%, following a 5.3% decline in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current and future economic conditions rose 5.6% and 2.2% respectively. Despite these gains, views toward both current and future economic conditions are well below long-run averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wage growth is economy’s Achilles heel, warns Moody’s

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 24-Aug-17

Ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service has maintained its stable outlook for Australia’s triple-A credit rating. However, Moody’s says factors such as low growth in wages and rising household debt – which now comprises 123.1 per cent of GDP – represent key risks to the economy. Meanwhile, Moody’s has forecast that state and federal government debt will increase to 42 per cent of GDP in 2017-18, while the firm has questioned whether the Federal Government will be able to limit growth in expenditure over the Budget forward estimates period.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED