ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence still above average at 115.1 after 0.6% fall

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Dec-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence slipped 0.6% to 115.1 in the week ended 10 December, effectively unwinding the 0.7% gain in the previous week, but remaining above its long-run average. The details were mixed; sentiment around financial conditions declined, but the remaining indexes posted small gains. Households continue to remain upbeat about both current and future economic conditions, with the sub-indices up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In four-week moving average terms, views towards current economic conditions are at their highest point since late 2013. Views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, more than reversing the 1.7% gain previously, and bringing the sub-index to a six-week low. Views towards future financial conditions fell 2.8%. Even so, both sub-indices currently sit above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Indonesians are far more confident than their Australian neighbours

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Dec-17

Consumer Confidence in Australia and its largest neighbour Indonesia has diverged massively since the height of the Australian mining boom in 2010-11. Indonesian Consumer Confidence soared following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, and while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating improved significantly it has never reached the heights of its northern neighbour. In October 2017 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence was at 153.8, more than 40pts above the figure for ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence for the same month of 113.3, although Australian Consumer Confidence has improved slightly over the past few weeks and is now at 115.8. However, in the years 2007-2010 Consumer Confidence in Australia and Indonesia was relatively similar and Australian Consumer Confidence was in fact higher throughout 2007, only dipping below Indonesian Consumer Confidence in mid-2008 as it reached a quarterly low of 94.4 in the December 2008 quarter.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

2.394m Australians unemployed or under-employed in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Dec-17

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.288 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce) in November 2017, an increase of 89,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.106 million Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 6,000 in a year. In total, 2.394 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in November. The figures also show that 11,886,000 Australians were employed in November – an increase of 39,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.4% for October. Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan says it has now been more than two years, or 26 straight months, that more than two million Australians have been unemployed or under-employed. It is this "slack" in the Australian labour market that is responsible for the low wage growth mentioned by the RBA this week in their Statement explaining their decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Slow growth puts a brake on rate rises

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 7-Dec-17

The latest GDP data has prompted financial markets to price in an 84 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the cash rate by the end of 2018, down from 94 per cent previously. The economy expanded by a lower-than-expected 0.6 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, while year-on-year growth rose from 1.9 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, growth in household consumption slowed to just 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rebound in wage data offers glimmer of hope

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Dec-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that wages in the private sector rose by 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter during the three months to September, and 2.5 per cent year-on-year. Data on public sector wage growth will be released with the national accounts on 6 December. However, the latest data suggests that the Reserve Bank will have scope to increase the cash rate if the recent growth in wages is sustained. Craig James of CommSec expects an interest rate rise in late 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Business Confidence up 1.4pts in November to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-17

Business Confidence in Australia rose 1.4pts (+1.2%) to 114.1 in November 2017, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, despite political issues for the Federal Government facing two by-elections over the next fortnight. Some 49.7% (up 1.9ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next year, while 44.2% (down 1.6ppts) expect "bad times". Meanwhile, 44% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses say their business will be "better off" financially this time next year, while 20.3% (down 2.9ppts) expect the business to be "worse off" this time next year. The small increase in Business Confidence in November was driven by rises in confidence in industries including Finance & Insurance, Accommodation & Food services, Professional, scientific & technical and Education & training.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian Inflation Expectations up in October led by renters

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and up 0.4% from October 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations among renters was 4.9% in October, compared with just 3.9% for home owners and 4.2% for mortgagors. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.9%, followed by Victoria and Queensland (4.6%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have the highest inflation expectations, ahead of L-NP supporters (4%) and Greens supporters (4.4%)

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence moderates after recent strength down 1.4pts to 115.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declined in the week ending 26 November, easing 1.2% to 115.0. However, confidence remains above the long term average of 112.9. Three out of five sub-indices posted falls, including both current and future economic conditions. Households’ views towards both current and future economic conditions slipped 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, after two weeks of solid gains. Household views toward the state of their current finances slipped for the fourth consecutive week, down 2.3%, while sentiment around the ‘time to buy a household item’ improved 0.5%, bringing this sub-index back to its long term average (133.8).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating rises to a 16-week high of 116.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating increased 1.4% to 116.4 in the week ended 19 November 2017, its highest level in 16 weeks. The details were broadly positive, with three out of five sub-indices posting gains, while the other two showed only slight falls. Households’ views towards both current and future economic conditions rose 2.9% and 2.0% respectively. Household views towards the current state of their finances were again pessimistic, but views towards future conditions jumped 3.0%, the first increase in four weeks. Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 4.5% in four-week moving average terms.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Signs of life in corporate investment: RBA

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Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 28 : 14-Nov-17

The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Guy Debelle has told the UBS Australasia Conference that business investment outside of Australia’s mining sector has been stronger than official figures suggest in the last several years. He said the services sector in particular has recorded strong growth in capital investment, while there has also been an increase in public investment in infrastructure. Meanwhile, Debelle noted that a rise in the cash rate will be dependent on an increase in wages and inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD