ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Business Confidence jumps 3.3pts in December to 117.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 3.3pts (+2.9%) to 117.4 in December 2017, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, after the Federal Government won two critical by-elections to retain a governing majority. Businesses are the most positive heading into a new year since 2013, with 57.3% (up 3ppts) of businesses saying now is a "good time to invest in growing the business". Meanwhile, 52.2% (up 2.5ppts) of businesses expect "good times" financially over the next 12 months and 49.8% (up 5.8ppts) say the business will be "better off" financially this time next year. The large increase in Business Confidence in December was driven by rises in confidence in industries such as Manufacturing, Agriculture, forestry & fishing, Education & training, and Information media and telecommunications.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wage growth slumps to a record 25-year low

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Jan-18

Wage increases for new enterprise agreements struck in the September 2017 quarter were just 2.2 per cent, the lowest increase in 25 years. The number of new agreements struck in the quarter was the lowest since 1995, while wage increases in union enterprise agreements were lower than those in non-union agreements, which is uncommon. The construction sector remained the industry where wage growth was strongest, while real estate and transport were among the sectors where wage growth was lowest.

CORPORATES
GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Interest-only loans plummet as banks clamp down on mortgage risk

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 16-Jan-18

New data suggests that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s crackdown on interest-only mortgage loans is having an impact. Australian Fin­ancial Group’s latest mortgage index shows that 19 per cent of new mortgage loans in the December 2017 quarter were interest-only loans, compared with 47 per cent for the corresponding period in 2016. However, the size of the average mortgage loan rose by 2.8 per cent nationwide in the year to November, and by 4.3 per cent in Victoria.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

Public sector costs squeeze households

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Jan-18

The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest household expenditure survey shows that consumers’ spending on essential services has risen by 23 per cent since 2009-10. Electricity, education and childcare are among the services for which household expenditure has risen sharply over the last six years. Meanwhile, household spending on food has increased by 15 per cent over this period, while there has been 46.9 per cent growth in expenditure on holidays.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

2.6m Australians unemployed or under-employed in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jan-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.312 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce) in December 2017, an increase of 126,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.288 million Australians (9.6% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 188,000 in a year. The figures also show that 12,098,000 Australians were employed in December, an increase of 392,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.4% for November. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says more than 2 million Australians have been either unemployed or under-employed for 27 straight months stretching back to late 2015, and until the Government undertakes significant industrial relations reform to cut red tape, target the rorts of the "cash economy" and provide the proper incentives for employers to take on new employees, Australian wage growth will continue to lag expectations and historical averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Backlash as foreign buyers flee

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 29 : 11-Jan-18

South Australia was the only state that did not record a downturn in sales of residential properties to foreign buyers in the December quarter, according to a new ANZ/Property Council survey. Property developers say factors such as restrictions on access to credit and higher taxes on foreign buyers have contributed to the downturn in demand, and prompted some developers to withdraw from the residential market. Meriton founder Harry Triguboff says his company is having to resell many apartments that had been pre-sold to Chinese buyers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERITON APARTMENTS PTY LTD, REALESTATE.COM.AU, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, CROWN GROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Health, retail leading surge in jobs growth

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale, Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-Jan-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 2.7 per cent growth in job vacancies in the three months to November 2017, and 16.1 per cent growth in the year to November. The annual growth in job vacancies was the strongest in seven years, while Australia recorded its strongest growth in new jobs for more than 12 years. Meanwhile, there was 17.2 per cent growth in private sector job vacancies over the 12 months, compared with 4.9 per cent growth in public sector job vacancies. Economists forecast that wages will begin to rise in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence ends 2017 on a high at 116.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 116.5 in the week ended 17 December. The details were positive, with all sub-indices except "time to buy a household item" posting gains. Sentiment towards both current and future economic conditions rose for the third straight week (2.4% and 1.1% respectively). This and other gains are indicative of the sustained turnaround in overall sentiment since the low for the year in August. Views towards current financial conditions jumped a solid 3.6%, more than offsetting the 2.7% fall previously. Views towards future financial conditions improved 0.5%, following a 2.8% fall in the previous week. Both sub-indices currently sit above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Turnbull takes credit for jobs boom

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 15-Dec-17

The Australian workforce has increased by 3.2 per cent in the last year, which is the fastest rate of growth since early 2008. Some 440,000 jobs have been created since September 2016, including 62,000 in November 2017, and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull notes that the labour market had not previously grown for 14 months successive months since 1994. He has attributed the strong jobs growth to the Coalition’s policies, although Labor employment spokesman Brendan O’Connor argues that the underemployment rate remains close to its record high.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LATROBE COMMUNITY HEALTH SERVICE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Jobs surge supports RBA’s growth forecasts

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 15-Dec-17

The latest jobs data may strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin lifting the cash rate in late 2018. Some 62,000 jobs were created in November, and 383,000 in the last year, while the unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also supports the central bank’s view that economic growth will be above its trend rate in 2018. However, Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan says the RBA is likely to keep interest rates on hold while the unemployment rate remains at its current level, while George Tharenou of UBS does not expect a rate rise until 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT