ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: still rising

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jun-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.6% to 112.9 in the week ended 4 June 2017, bringing the weekly index back to its long-term average. This is the longest sustained rise in confidence this year. Households’ expectations of current economic conditions improved 1.4% last week, following a solid 3.5% rise the previous week. Meanwhile, views of future economic conditions declined 3.2% last week, partially offsetting the 4.6% rise in the previous week. Households’ views around current financial conditions edged down 0.4%. However, views towards future conditions bounced 2.7%, more than offsetting the 1.7% fall the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Reserve takes hands off the growth lever

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 7-Jun-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement for June 2017 notes that GDP growth is likely to have slowed in the March 2017 quarter. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says that while the central bank may be willing to overlook a temporary fall in GDP, a second successive quarter of weak GDP growth in June would be a concern for it. Dales expects the RBA to leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the rest of 2017, after doing so in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

New home sales coming off peak

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 5-Jun-17

New home sales all rose in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia in April 2017, according to Housing Industry Association figures. Western Australian sales declined by 12.7 per cent, while Queensland sales fell for the fifth month in a row. Australia-wide, sales were up when compared to March, but were 3.3 per cent down on April 2016. HIA senior economist Geordan Murray notes its current forecasts for 2017-18 suggest new home starts will be down by about 10 per cent.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Retail decline threat to growth

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 1-Jun-17

National Australia Bank forecasts that retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent during April 2017, although chief economist Alan Oster says this figure could be optimistic. Official data will be released on 1 June, but some observers believe that retail sales fell in April. Oster says the retail sector is already in recession, and he does not anticipate an improvement in the near-term. A survey on the spending behaviour of NAB customers has highlighted the difficult trading conditions for the retail sector.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, RCG CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX RCG, GODFREYS GROUP LIMITED – ASX GFY, AP EAGERS LIMITED – ASX APE, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, DAVID JONES LIMITED, TOPSHOP, HERRINGBONE PTY LTD, RHODES AND BECKETT PTY LTD, DAVID LAWRENCE, PAYLESS SHOES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating up for the second straight week to 112.2 (up 1.5%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-May-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.5% to 112.2 in the week ended 28 May 2017, bringing the index back to levels before the Commonwealth Budget. The improvement in confidence was mixed – sentiment towards financial conditions deteriorated somewhat, while views around economic conditions rose solidly. Households’ expectations towards both current and future economic conditions bounced last week (3.5% and 4.6% respectively), after posting modest rises the previous week. Sentiment towards current economic conditions is at its highest value in seven weeks. Households’ views around current financial conditions were broadly flat (-0.1%). Meanwhile, views towards future conditions dropped 1.7%, offsetting the 1.5% rise in the previous week. Confidence in overall financial conditions has fallen sharply since the Commonwealth Budget, unwinding the modest recovery in April.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up 1.1pts to 110.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-May-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.0% to 110.5 in the week ended 21 May 2017, to remain somewhat below its long-term average. The improvement in confidence was broad-based, with four out of five indices rising. Households’ expectations towards both current and future economic conditions rose 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Meanwhile, households’ views towards future financial conditions rose 1.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence was up in April before the Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-May-17

Business Confidence in Australia rose 2.8pts (+2.5%) to 116.6 in April 2017, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. The rise in Business Confidence coincided with the All Ordinaries Index gaining 43.8pts (+0.7%) to 5,947.60 during the month and strong near-record monthly trade surpluses of over $A3bn in the months leading into April. The increase in Business Confidence came before last week’s Federal Budget, which appeared to have a negative impact on Consumer Confidence – the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell 2.6% to 109.4 following the Budget. Business Confidence was boosted in April by improving sentiment about the year ahead. In April, 48.7% (up2.7ppts) of Australian businesses expected to be "better off" financially this time next year, while 19.7% (down 0.4ppts) expected to be "worse off". In addition, a majority of Australian businesses, 52.8% (up 2.7ppts), expected "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40.0% (down 6.1ppts) expected "bad times" – a net positive gain of a significant 8.8ppts.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Budget tax increases will always lead to a lower Consumer Confidence explains Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-17

This week’s drop in Consumer Confidence follows the Federal Budget considered by many conservatives to be "Labor-lite" and considered by those on the left to be unfair on low income earners. The Turnbull Government chose to increase taxes on consumers – by increasing the Medicare levy – rather than cutting spending; and to increase taxes on Australia’s largest banks, which could lower their share prices and lead to the banks increasing interest rates on the loans they provide to consumers and businesses alike. The budget was followed by decreases in four out of the five indices that comprise Consumer Confidence. Household financial expectations compared to a year ago dropped a net 3.2ppts, expectations for the Australian economy over the next year dropped by a net 3.9ppts and expectations for the Australian economy over the next five years dropped a net 5.5ppts. The only increase recorded was in the number of people saying now is a good time to buy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence resumes its downward trend – down 2.6% to 109.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-17

The latest headline ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dropped sharply, falling 2.6% this week. The index now sits at 109.4 – the lowest level since September 2015. The four week moving average continued to trend lower, and is now 1.6% below its long run average. Four of the five indices registered sharp declines. Households’ expectations towards their long term economic conditions posted the sharpest fall, down 5.5% over the week. This offset the previous two consecutive weekly gains. Views about current economic conditions fell by 3.9%, but remain slightly above April’s low.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

2.3 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-May-17

Australia’s real unemployment for April was unchanged at 9.3% (1.217 million Australians looking for work). In addition, for the eighth straight month more than 1 million Australians were under-employed in April – now 1.090 million (8.3% of the workforce). This is a total of 2.307 million Australians (17.6% of the workforce) looking for work or looking for more work. In April the total Australian workforce was 13,133,000 (up 323,000 in a year) and employment grew strongly to 11,916,000 (up 440,000). However, the increase in employment was entirely driven by a large increase in part-time employment which rose 471,000 to 4,300,000 while full-time employment fell 31,000 to 7,616,000. So while real unemployment at 9.3% is down 1.1% from a year ago, under-employment is up 0.6% to 8.3% over the same period.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED