ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research Gary Morgan comments on today’s April real unemployment figures

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-May-17

Australia’s real unemployment rate of 9.3% (1.217 million Australians) in April is far higher than the 5.9% claimed by the ABS as Treasurer Scott Morrison prepares to deliver the first Federal Budget of the re-elected Turnbull Government tonight. In addition, a further 1.090 million Australians are under-employed (8.3% of the workforce), and regularly ignored by both the major political parties and the mainstream media. For the first time last week Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull met new US President Donald Trump who was clear during his campaign that the real American unemployment rate was 20% or 25% rather than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics figure below 5%. Turnbull and his Ministers in Australia need to understand the issues are the same in Australia and the Turnbull Government must follow Trump’s lead by implementing policies to bring back jobs to Australia.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence unchanged ahead of the budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-May-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in the week ending 29 April 2017, rising from 111.2 to 111.3. Consumer confidence is now just below its long-run average. The uptick in confidence was underpinned by some improvement in households’ views towards the economic outlook. After falling sharply the previous week, households’ expectations for economic conditions in the next 12 months rose 2.0%, while expectations for economic conditions over the next five years rose 0.7%. Households’ views towards their finances were mixed: sentiment about current finances rose 2.6%, while views about future finances fell 3.6%.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Rate hikes deferred by slow US growth

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-May-17

The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold in May 2017, in the wake of GDP data showing that US economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter. Some 70 per cent of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to leave rates on hold in May, and Paul Brennan of Citigroup says the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts are unlikely to be unduly affected by data showing that inflation is within its target range.

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UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, THINKMARKETS, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE SA

Rise in inflation puts squeeze on households

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 27-Apr-17

Financial markets believe there is little chance of an official interest rate cut in May 2017, following the release of CPI data for the March quarter. The headline inflation rate was 2.1 per cent year-on-year during the quarter, compared with 1.5 per cent previously. The inflation rate is now within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for the first time since late 2014. An increase in gas prices contributed to the rise in the inflation rate, which is now outpacing wages growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declines for the second week in a row – down 1.4pts to 111.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Apr-17

Headline ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.24% to 111.2 in the week ended 23 April 2017, below its long run average. Households’ views towards their current finances fell 1.2%, while views about future finances fell 0.6%. Households’ expectations for economic conditions next year fell 5.3% taking the index to its lowest level since February 2016. Expectations for economic conditions over the next five years rose by 0.2%, but are still close to the lowest level for 2017.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation will decide the rate debate

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 26-Apr-17

Investors will be awaiting the release of Australia’s CPI data for the March 2017 quarter, which may influence the timing of any change to monetary policy. The headline inflation rate is widely tipped to have risen by 2.2 per cent year-on-year, which would be the first time that inflation has been within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent since the September 2014 quarter. However, the underlying inflation rate for the year to March is expected to be around 1.8 per cent.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declining again – down 2.2pts to 112.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Apr-17

Headline ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.9% to 112.6 in the week ended 16 April 2017, partly reversing the previous week’s gain. This dragged the index back down below its long run average. The performance of the sub-indices was largely negative, with only one of the five sub-indices recording a rise. Households’ expectations for economic conditions over the next year fell 1.9%, while expectations for economic conditions over the next five years dropped a sharp 4.1%, to be at its lowest level since September 2015. Households’ views towards their current finances fell a modest 0.7%, while views about future finances improved 2.7%, to the highest level since February.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wealthiest 3pc of earners pay 30pc of tax

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 19-Apr-17

Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that the Federal Government collected $A177bn in income tax revenue in 2014-15. People in the highest tax bracket contributed $A53bn to government coffers, which equates to 30 per cent of the income tax take. People in this tax bracket account for just three per cent of taxpayers. The Government also reaped $A69.3bn in income tax from people in the second-highest tax bracket in 2014-15, which equates to 39.1 per cent of total tax revenue.

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AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

IMF outlook perks up for jobs, inflation

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 19-Apr-17

The International Monetary Fund has forecast global economic growth of 3.5 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018. The latest World Economic Outlook report also forecasts that Australia’s economic growth rate will rise to 3.4 per cent year-on-year by the December 2017 quarter, while the economy is forecast to grow by three per cent in 2018. Meanwhile, the IMF expects the nation’s unemployment rate to fall to 5.1 per cent in 2018. The IMF’s outlook for Australia is much more bullish than the most recent forecasts issued by the Treasury.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Business Confidence up in March; but low confidence sees Barnett Government thrown out

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 2.4% to 113.8 in March 2017. The rise in Business Confidence coincided with the All Ordinaries Index gaining 142.8pts (+2.5%) to 5,903.8. However, the continuing low Western Australian Business Confidence contributed to the election loss for former premier Colin Barnett. WA has consistently had the lowest Business Confidence of any State since the end of the mining boom in mid-2015. A record high 43.3% (up 3.4ppts) of businesses say they are "better off financially" than a year ago while just 28.6% (down 2.2ppts) say they are "worse off", a net positive gain of 5.6ppts. In addition, 50.1% (up 4.4ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 46.1% (down 0.8ppts), expect "bad times" – a net positive gain of 5.2ppts. Meanwhile, 50% (up 0.8ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years, while 41.8% (unchanged) expect bad times.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX