ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.5% in August. Generations Y & Z consistently have highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for August 2017. This is up 0.2% in a month and up 0.6% from August 2016. However, it is well below the seven-year average of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 4.9%, closely followed by New South Wales (4.8%) and Queensland (4.6%). Inflation Expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average. Analysing Inflation Expectations by generations reveals a clear split in how different generations view Inflation. The two youngest generations consistently have higher Inflation Expectations than older generations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence down in August to 114.4 as high energy prices a threat to economic growth

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-17

Business Confidence in Australia fell 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.4 in August 2017, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, following extensive discussions about the high cost of energy in Australia. However, businesses remain largely positive with a majority of businesses expecting to be "better off" financially this time next year (51.7%), and most businesses say now is a good time to invest in growing the business (54.9%). The fall in Business Confidence was driven by large falls in confidence in several industries including Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water and Personal, repair and other services.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Kim’s bomb the bleak balance for the upbeat

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Sep-17

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says there is potential for equity markets to experience a correction, although this could depend on the response to North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb. Meanwhile, Oliver says profit growth in Australia remains significantly lower than in the US, Europe and Japan. He anticipates GDP growth of 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 1.5 per cent growth year-on-year. A survey by Bloomberg shows that the general consensus is for GDP growth of 0.7 per cent for the quarter and 1.8 per cent for the year to June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Corporates finally ramp up capex

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Sep-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that private-sector companies anticipate capital expenditure of $A101.8bn in 2017-18. This is 17.6 per cent higher than had been forecast three months ago, and compares with analysts’ expectations of $A95.9bn. The figures also show that there was an 0.8 per cent increase in capex during the final quarter of 2016-17. Telstra and Santos are among the companies that have recently announced plans for increased capex in 2017-18.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, PERENNIAL VALUE MANAGEMENT LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: volatility reigns

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Aug-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 3.9% to 113.5 in the week ended 27 August 2017, after three straight weekly falls. Sentiment rose across the board, with views towards personal finances showing a particularly solid improvement. Households’ views towards current financial conditions bounced 4.7%, more than reversing the 4.1% fall over the previous two weeks and bringing the index to an 11-week high. Similarly, sentiment around future financial conditions rose a solid 6.4%, following a 5.3% decline in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current and future economic conditions rose 5.6% and 2.2% respectively. Despite these gains, views toward both current and future economic conditions are well below long-run averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wage growth is economy’s Achilles heel, warns Moody’s

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 24-Aug-17

Ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service has maintained its stable outlook for Australia’s triple-A credit rating. However, Moody’s says factors such as low growth in wages and rising household debt – which now comprises 123.1 per cent of GDP – represent key risks to the economy. Meanwhile, Moody’s has forecast that state and federal government debt will increase to 42 per cent of GDP in 2017-18, while the firm has questioned whether the Federal Government will be able to limit growth in expenditure over the Budget forward estimates period.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down for third straight week to 109.2 (down 2.5pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Aug-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.2% to 109.2 in the week ended 20 August 2017, down from a high of 118.4 only three weeks earlier. The fall in sentiment was broad-based, with four out of five sub-indices posting declines. Households’ views towards current financial conditions slipped 2.1%, following a 2.0% fall previously. Views towards future financial conditions fell a solid 5.3%, more than reversing the prior week’s 1.9% rise. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions fell 1.5%, the third straight weekly fall. Sentiment around future economic conditions fell a sharp 6.8% last week. While views towards economic conditions have been quite volatile recently, the index is now close to its lowest on record.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Mining-state revival drives ‘best job growth in 40 years’

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Aug-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 202,000 jobs have been created so far in 2017, including 153,000 full-time jobs. Some 27,900 jobs were created during July, with the official unemployment rate easing to 5.6 per cent and the labour force participation rate rising to a new high of 77.4 per cent. The major mining states of Western Australia and Queensland have recorded jobs growth of 35,400 and 70,900 respectively in the year to date. Meanwhile, the average full-time wage has risen to $A80,250, according to separate data from the ABS.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Wages stall at record low of 1.9 per cent

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Original article by Eryk Bagshaw
The Age – Page: 11 : 17-Aug-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was overall wage growth of 0.5 per cent in the June quarter, and 1.9 per cent in the year to June. Private sector wages grew by 1.8 per cent in the year to June, although there was 2.5 per cent growth in public sector wages. ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman says underemployment partially contributed to the low growth in wages. The May 2016 Budget had forecast wage growth of 2.5 per cent in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence dips again to 111.7 (down 2pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Aug-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.8% to 111.7 in the week ended 13 August 2017, and it is now below the long-term average of 112.9. Three out of the five sub-indices posted declines, with the sharpest fall in current economic conditions. Consumers’ sentiment towards current economic conditions remained sombre, with a fall of 6% coming straight after the prior week’s sharp decline of more than 10%. In contrast, the measure of future economic conditions was up a touch to 105.1, just above the long-term average for the first time since March. Attitudes toward current financial conditions fell 2%, largely reversing the previous week’s improvement. On the flipside, views towards future financial conditions were up 1.9% but are still below the long-run average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ