ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Resource states recover to drive jobs growth

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 16-Jun-17

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 42,000 new jobs were added to the economy in May 2017. Full-time jobs accounted for 80 per cent of the 141,000 new jobs in the past three months. New South Wales added 49,000 new jobs over the past six months, while Victoria added 41,000. Resources states Queensland and Western Australia both recorded improved jobs growth in the past six months. Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank said the recent good job figures means an interest rate cut is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence steady at 112.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jun-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 112.9 in the week ended 11 June 2017, following the release of the disappointing GDP result for the March quarter. The headline number masked significant changes in the sub-indices. Household expectations of current economic conditions dropped a sharp 5.2% last week, almost entirely unwinding gains made over the last three weeks. Views towards future economic conditions also declined 2.6%, following a 3.2% fall in the previous week. This sub-index currently sits at its lowest level since September 2015. However, household views around current financial conditions jumped 9.4%, bringing the index to its highest level in 14 weeks. Views towards future conditions also improved, rising 1.5% last week following a 2.7% rise the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Over 2.6 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-17

Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.8% (1.284 million Australians looking for work) in May 2017. In addition 1.338 million Australians were under-employed (10.2% of the workforce). This is a total of 2.622 million Australians (20% of the workforce) looking for work or looking for more work. In May the total Australian workforce was 13,074,000 (up 291,000 in 12 months) and employment grew to 11,790,000 (up 376,000). However, the increase in employment was almost entirely driven by a large increase in part-time employment, which rose 346,000 to 4,238,000. Full-time employment rose a modest 30,000 to 7,552,000. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says last week’s Fair Work Commission decisions to increase the minimum wage by $22 per week (+3.3%) and partly defer cuts to Sunday penalty rates over three years instead of now have dealt a significant blow to the prospect of more jobs for Australia’s unemployed and under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence gives soft ‘thumbs down’ to Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jun-17

Business Confidence in Australia fell 2.8pts (-2.4%) to 113.8 in May, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. The fall in Business Confidence came during the month Treasurer Scott Morrison handed down a Federal Budget which included plans to increase taxation on Australian banks and coincided with the Australian All Ordinaries falling 186.3pts (-3.1%) to 5,761.3. The business specific financial indicators drove this month’s fall in Business Confidence back to the pre-Budget March rating of 113.8. In May 44.4% (down 4.3ppts) of Australian businesses expected to be "better off" financially this time next year, compared to 22.6% (up 2.9ppts) that expected to be "worse off" – a net negative movement of 7.2pts. Also fewer Australian businesses, 39% (down 3.2ppts), said the business is "better off" financially than a year ago while 32.9% (up 3.6ppts), said the business is "worse off" – a net negative movement of 6.8pts.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Economy at slowest pace since GFC

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Jun-17

The latest national accounts data shows that the Australian economy expanded by just 1.7 per cent in the year to March 2017, which is the lowest annual growth rate for eight years. GDP growth was 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, compared with 1.1 per cent in the December 2016 quarter. Treasurer Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the economy and the implications for May 2017 Budget forecasts. He notes that 17 out of 20 industry sectors recorded growth during the March quarter, while business investment has risen for two consecutive quarters.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Outlook ‘tough’ as economy slows

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Jun-17

Data from Credit Suisse shows that financial markets expect the cash rate to remain on hold in the next 12 months, following the release of the latest GDP data. The economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the March 2017 quarter, and year-on-year growth fell to an eight-year low of 1.7 per cent. The data will cast doubt on the Reserve Bank’s forecast of calendar year economic growth of 2.5-3.5 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank notes that the central bank will be adverse to easing the cash rate, as doing so could further inflate house prices.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: still rising

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jun-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.6% to 112.9 in the week ended 4 June 2017, bringing the weekly index back to its long-term average. This is the longest sustained rise in confidence this year. Households’ expectations of current economic conditions improved 1.4% last week, following a solid 3.5% rise the previous week. Meanwhile, views of future economic conditions declined 3.2% last week, partially offsetting the 4.6% rise in the previous week. Households’ views around current financial conditions edged down 0.4%. However, views towards future conditions bounced 2.7%, more than offsetting the 1.7% fall the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Reserve takes hands off the growth lever

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 7-Jun-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement for June 2017 notes that GDP growth is likely to have slowed in the March 2017 quarter. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says that while the central bank may be willing to overlook a temporary fall in GDP, a second successive quarter of weak GDP growth in June would be a concern for it. Dales expects the RBA to leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the rest of 2017, after doing so in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

New home sales coming off peak

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 5-Jun-17

New home sales all rose in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia in April 2017, according to Housing Industry Association figures. Western Australian sales declined by 12.7 per cent, while Queensland sales fell for the fifth month in a row. Australia-wide, sales were up when compared to March, but were 3.3 per cent down on April 2016. HIA senior economist Geordan Murray notes its current forecasts for 2017-18 suggest new home starts will be down by about 10 per cent.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Retail decline threat to growth

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 1-Jun-17

National Australia Bank forecasts that retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent during April 2017, although chief economist Alan Oster says this figure could be optimistic. Official data will be released on 1 June, but some observers believe that retail sales fell in April. Oster says the retail sector is already in recession, and he does not anticipate an improvement in the near-term. A survey on the spending behaviour of NAB customers has highlighted the difficult trading conditions for the retail sector.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, RCG CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX RCG, GODFREYS GROUP LIMITED – ASX GFY, AP EAGERS LIMITED – ASX APE, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, DAVID JONES LIMITED, TOPSHOP, HERRINGBONE PTY LTD, RHODES AND BECKETT PTY LTD, DAVID LAWRENCE, PAYLESS SHOES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY