ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Lowe may sit on rates two years into his term

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 14-Aug-17

Economists polled by Bloomberg expect Australia’s official unemployment rate to have remained at 5.6 per cent in July 2017, with about 20,000 jobs created during the month. The latest jobs and wage price index data are among the key indicators to be released in the week beginning 14 August. Meanwhile, Vimal Gor of BT Investment Management expects official interest rates to remain on hold in 2018, citing factors such as low wages growth and the growing gap between business and consumer confidence.

CORPORATES
BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

First-home buyers back in the market

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 10-Aug-17

Treasurer Scott Morrison and the Real Estate Institute of Australia have welcomed indications of an upturn in first-home buyer activity. Official figures show that 8,573 mortgage loans were taken out by first-time buyers in June, which is the highest level in almost three years. The total value of loan commitments to this segment of the mortgage market topped $A28.5bn in the year to June. Meanwhile, loan commitments to property investors rose by 10.5 per cent to $A152 billion in 2016-17, in seasonally-adjusted terms.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, POLY GROUP CORPORATION, INTRAPAC PROJECTS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops to 113.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell a sharp 4.0% to 113.7 in the week ended 6 August 2017, partially unwinding the gains over the previous two weeks. Although four out of five sub-indices posted declines, the fall in confidence was driven primarily by a sharp reversal of sentiment around economic conditions. Consumers’ views towards both current and future economic conditions eased considerably last week, largely unwinding the previous week’s gains. Sentiment around current and future conditions fell 10.7% and 7.3% respectively. In contrast, households’ views towards current financial conditions improved 2.8%, more than reversing the 1.2% fall in the previous week. Meanwhile, views towards future financial conditions fell 2.3%, its third consecutive fall.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence up in July to 117.0 driven by Agriculture, Construction, Information, Media & Telcos

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Aug-17

Business Confidence in Australia rose 5.2pts (+4.7%) to 117.0 in July, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. The rise in Business Confidence was driven by strong increases in several industries including Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Construction, and Information, media and telecommunications. Business Confidence increased on the back of rising expectations of the Australian economy, with a majority of businesses now expecting "good times" for the economy in both the short-term – 52.7% (up 5.8ppts) and long-term – 51.2% (up 1.6ppts). Expectations for their own businesses have also increased, with 44.5% (up 5.8ppts) saying the business is "better off" financially than this time last year and 47.4% (up 3ppts) expecting the business to be "better off" financially this time next year. The rise in Business Confidence mirrors a strengthening weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating, which increased by 5.9pts (+5.2%) in the last two weeks of July to 118.4.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia’s real unemployment is 9.4% in July; down 1.1% from a year ago

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Aug-17

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 11,854,000 Australians were employed in July 2017, a substantial increase of 212,000 over the past year (with just under 20,000 jobs added per month). A total of 1.236 million Australians were unemployed in July (9.4% of the workforce). This is down 129,000 (1.1%) from a year ago. An additional 1.226 million Australians (9.4%) were under-employed (looking for work or looking for more work), which is up 55,000 (0.4%). A total of 2.462 million Australians (or 18.8%) were unemployed or under-employed in July. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2017 (5.6%). Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that finding work for the 2.462 million Australians who are unemployed or under-employed is the Government’s largest challenge, despite what the media may talk about on a continual basis. This large cohort of Australians looking for new employment opportunities will ultimately judge the Government’s success or otherwise based on whether an improving economy is generating sufficient jobs.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.3% in July

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and inflation expectations are up 0.2% from a year ago in July 2016. However, despite the recent uptick, Australian inflation expectations remain well below average inflation expectations over the last seven years of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that inflation expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.6%, closely followed by New South Wales and Victoria, both at 4.5%. Inflation expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average: Queensland and Tasmania both at 4.1% and Western Australia at 3.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Nation ‘more equal than the 70s’

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale, David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 3-Aug-17

The Melbourne Institute’s Roger Wilkins has disputed claims by Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten than inequality in Australia is at its highest level in 75 years. Professor Wilkins is the author of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) study, which found that average living standards across all income groups have increased since the annual survey began in 2001. He suggests that equality in Australia is now higher than it was four decades ago.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, GRATTAN INSTITUTE

Typical family earns less than 2009 income

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Original article by Peter Martin
The Age – Page: 10 : 2-Aug-17

Analysis of data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey shows that median real household disposable income was $A76,225 in 2015, compared with $A77,411 prior to the onset of the global financial crisis. The data also shows that the typical household income in Melbourne has increased by $A9,785 since the annual HILDA survey began in 2001, while typical household income in Sydney has risen by just $A5,182 over the last 15 years.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF SOCIAL SERVICES

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence surges to a 22 week high

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Aug-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.9% to 118.4 in the week ended 30 July 2017, and now sits at its highest point since late February. Despite the jump in the headline index, the details were more mixed, with views towards economic conditions rising sharply but confidence in financial conditions easing a touch. Households’ views around current and future financial conditions slipped 1.2% and 0.9% respectively. Both sub-indices remain above or close to their long-term averages. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions shot up 12.3%, bringing the sub-index to its highest point since September 2013. Views around future economic conditions rose 8.2%, following a 2.7% increase in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Residential lending hits record levels

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 1-Aug-17

Reserve Bank of Australia figures show that there was a 7.4 per cent increase in mortgage loans to property investors in the year to June 2017. This compares with an increase of 6.2 per cent in loans to owner-occupiers. Overall, a record $A1.69 trillion worth of mortgages were active at the end of June. Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics said the figures suggest that regulatory attempts to cool the residential property market do not seem to have had any impact yet.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ME BANK, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, CANSTAR PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY