ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan real unemployment down in February, now 9.4% (1.253m) down 0.6% from Feb 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Mar-17

A Roy Morgan Research survey has found that Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.4 per cent in February 2017, while the under-employment rate was 8.5 per cent. A total of 2.390 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed, which is down 90,000 (or 0.9%) from February 2016. Some 1.253 million Australians are now unemployed (down 66,000 in the last 12 months), while 1,137,000 are under-employed (down 24,000 in 12 months). Meanwhile, the total Australian workforce was 13,348,000 (up 174,000 since February 2016) and total employment was 12,095,000 (up 240,000 in a year). The official unemployment rate was 5.7 per cent in January 2017.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rebounds sharply – up 4.7% to 119.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Mar-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 4.7% to 119.1 in the week ended 26 February 2017, following a disappointing performance the previous week (down 2.3%). The increase in confidence was broadly based with all five sub-indices posting gains. Households’ views of current finances rose a sharp 9.3%, more than reversing last week’s 7.5% fall. Sentiment towards future finances also rose a solid 6.3%, bringing the index to its highest value since March 2016. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 month bounced 4.4%, while sentiment towards the longer term outlook rose a more modest 1.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence wilts – down 2.3% to 113.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3% to 113.7 in the week ended 19 February 2017. Consumer confidence fell for the third straight week, bringing the headline index to its lowest value since December. The fall was driven by a sharp decline in views toward current finances and views on economic conditions over the next five years. Households’ views of current finances fell a sharp 7.5%, bringing the index down to its lowest level since August 2014. However, sentiment towards future finances rose 0.3%. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months declined by 1.6%, and sentiment regarding economic conditions over the next five years dropped 4.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: edges down

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged down 0.9% to 116.4 in the week ending 12 February 2017. The decrease was driven primarily by declines in sentiment toward both financial and economic conditions over the next 12 months. Households’ views of their current finances improved by 1.0%, whereas sentiment towards future finances fell by 1.8%. Both indicators remain well above their long run averages. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months deteriorated by 3.8%, partially unwinding the 5.7% bounce over the previous two weeks. Sentiment regarding economic conditions over the next five years edged down 0.7% after a solid 4.7% in rise the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Over 12 million Australians have jobs for the first time – including over 8 million full-time jobs, but real unemployment now 9.7% (1.295m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-17

A Roy Morgan Research survey has found that Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.7 per cent in January 2017. Some 1.295 million Australians are now unemployed (down 51,000 in a year), while the number of people who are under-employed has fallen by 122,000 in the last 12 months to 1,107,000 (8.3 per cent of the workforce). Meanwhile, the total workforce has risen to 13,414,000 (up 316,000 since January 2016), and total employment has risen above 12 million for the first time, to 12,120,000 (up 368,000). The number of Australians who are employed full-time has also risen above 8 million for the first time, to 8,085,000 (up 221,000 since January 2016). The official unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in December 2016. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says US President Donald Trump has consistently outlined the problems with the way unemployment is measured in the US. Trump’s insistence that the BLS severely under-estimates US unemployment is one of the primary reasons he was elected President. The Australian Government faces the same problem Trump has called attention to. The changing nature of the workforce in Australia, the US, and for that matter around the world demands that Governments look seriously at amending the official measures of employment and unemployment that policymakers rely on to make decisions that impact millions of their citizens.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating Stays Steady at 117.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Feb-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell slightly by 0.5% to 117.5 in the week ended 5 February 2017. A solid rise in the future economic outlook was entirely offset by a drop in the current finances and "now is a good time to buy a household item" sub-indices. Households’ views towards current and future finances fell 3.4% and 0.2% respectively. Both indicators remain well above their long run averages, though households’ assessment of their current situation is back to mid-2016 levels. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months edged up another 0.3%, after a sharp 5.4% rise last week, bringing the index to its highest level in nine weeks. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next five years posted a solid 4.7% rise, more than offsetting last week’s 3.0% decline.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Mining exports reignite boom

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 3-Feb-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the value of coal and metals exports reached a new monthly high of $A13.4bn in December, compared with just $A6.4bn in January 2016. The value of coal exports rose to $A5.7bn, which is the highest level since November 2008. Iron ore exports topped $A7.7bn, which is the second-highest monthly total on record. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are tipped to post bumper half-year and full-year profits in coming weeks.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED – ASX RSG, NEW SOUTH WALES MINERALS COUNCIL, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Unemployment measurement is "absurd" says Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-17

Renowned Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey has correctly identified the real problem facing the Australian economy in 2017 – the absurd measurement of unemployment means the true level of real unemployment and under-employment is under-reported. As Blainey correctly pointed out in an interview on the ABC 7.30 Report last Friday, someone who works for only one hour a week being classified as employed is "absurd". Using this definition of unemployment allows the Government to rely on inflated figures of real employment provided by the ABS each month, while simultaneously down-playing the real levels of (much higher) real unemployment and under-employment. The latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates show 20% (2.584 million) of Australians are either unemployed or under-employed. Nearly half a million people (445,000), that Roy Morgan considers unemployed the ABS consider either employed (280,000) or not in the workforce (165,000).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mining states hit by sharp drop in home loan activity: AFG

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 15 : 12-Jan-17

Listed mortgage broker Australian Finance Group has reported 9.9 per cent growth in home loan lodgements nationwide in calendar 2016. However, there was a 16 per cent downturn in loan lodgements in Western Australia, while lodgements fell by 18 per cent in the Northern Territory. Meanwhile, AFG CEO Brett McKeon says the WA Government’s decision to temporarily increase the first-home owners’ grant by $A5,000 for new homes is unlikely to significantly boost construction activity in the residential property market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFG, REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS

Confidence in property hits two-year high

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 12-Jan-17

A survey by the ANZ Bank and the Property Council of Australia has found that confidence in the nation’s residential and commercial property markets has risen to its highest level in two years. The Property Confidence Index has risen by two points to 130 points for the March 2017 quarter, and Western Australia is the only state that has not recorded a rise in confidence. Interest rate expectations over the next 12 months have also risen significantly, particularly nationally and in New South Wales.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION