ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Unemployment measurement is "absurd" says Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-17

Renowned Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey has correctly identified the real problem facing the Australian economy in 2017 – the absurd measurement of unemployment means the true level of real unemployment and under-employment is under-reported. As Blainey correctly pointed out in an interview on the ABC 7.30 Report last Friday, someone who works for only one hour a week being classified as employed is "absurd". Using this definition of unemployment allows the Government to rely on inflated figures of real employment provided by the ABS each month, while simultaneously down-playing the real levels of (much higher) real unemployment and under-employment. The latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates show 20% (2.584 million) of Australians are either unemployed or under-employed. Nearly half a million people (445,000), that Roy Morgan considers unemployed the ABS consider either employed (280,000) or not in the workforce (165,000).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mining states hit by sharp drop in home loan activity: AFG

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 15 : 12-Jan-17

Listed mortgage broker Australian Finance Group has reported 9.9 per cent growth in home loan lodgements nationwide in calendar 2016. However, there was a 16 per cent downturn in loan lodgements in Western Australia, while lodgements fell by 18 per cent in the Northern Territory. Meanwhile, AFG CEO Brett McKeon says the WA Government’s decision to temporarily increase the first-home owners’ grant by $A5,000 for new homes is unlikely to significantly boost construction activity in the residential property market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFG, REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS

Confidence in property hits two-year high

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 12-Jan-17

A survey by the ANZ Bank and the Property Council of Australia has found that confidence in the nation’s residential and commercial property markets has risen to its highest level in two years. The Property Confidence Index has risen by two points to 130 points for the March 2017 quarter, and Western Australia is the only state that has not recorded a rise in confidence. Interest rate expectations over the next 12 months have also risen significantly, particularly nationally and in New South Wales.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

Christmas sales hope after November slip

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 11-Jan-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail spending in November 2016 was 0.2 per cent higher than October in seasonally-adjusted terms. Economists had expected growth of 0.4 per cent in November, after sales rose by 0.5 per cent in October. Meanwhile, economists note that anecdotal evidence suggests that retail sales improved in December.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Mortgage payments steady as rates rise

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 : 11-Jan-17

Data from Deutsche Bank shows that Australians’ home loan repayments now comprise around 17 per cent of their income, which is consistent with the average over the last three decades. The figures also show that mortgage payment account for 63.6 per cent of Sydney borrowers’ weekly income, compared with 45.3 per cent in Melbourne and just 27.3 per cent in Perth. Meanwhile, Paul Bloxham of HSBC says the residential construction boom is nearing its peak.

CORPORATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, ING DIRECT, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumps to 120.1 (up 6.7pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jan-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumped a sharp 5.9% to 120.1 in the week ended 8 January 2017, more than reversing the decline in the last survey conducted in mid-December (post the surprisingly weak GDP reading). The headline index is now at its highest level in 15 weeks. The details were broadly upbeat. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months bounced a solid 11.2%, almost entirely reversing last month’s decline. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next five years rose 2.2%. Meanwhile, households’ views towards their finances compared to a year ago rose 3.0% and now sits at the highest level since the end of September 2016, when the index reached a post-GFC high. Households’ views towards their future finances also improved, up 3.5% last week, and are in a strong upward trend.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Housing approvals post small rise but trend points downwards

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 10-Jan-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was seven per cent growth in dwelling approvals in November 2016, in seasonally-adjusted terms. House approvals were consistent with the data for October, although there was 17.3 per cent growth in approvals for units. Meanwhile, in trend terms dwelling approvals declined in the six months to November.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Business Confidence down in December to 114.1 (down 2.2%) after negative Australian GDP figures released

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.2% to 114.1 in December 2016. The fall in Business Confidence occurred even as the Australian All Ordinaries rose during December – mirroring strong rises in US indices following the victory of Donald Trump in the Presidential Election. The All Ordinaries ended 2016 at 5,719.1 (up 216.7pts (+3.9%) from November 30). This month’s fall in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now below the 6-year average (116.6) but still above the final ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for 2016 of 113.4. Businesses are less confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months down 3.3ppts to 27pts in December, and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 18.2pts (down 2.3ppts).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research comments on the fall in Business Confidence in December

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Business Confidence fell slightly in December after three straight months of increases – down 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.1. The fall in Business Confidence came after Donald Trump secured an unexpected victory in the US Presidential Election in November while in early December the ABS announced Australia’s GDP had decreased 0.5% in the September quarter – the first contraction in Australian GDP for over five years. Both Australia and the US face a continuing problem of high real unemployment and under-employment: In the US (over 20% according to President-elect Trump); and in Australia the latest Roy Morgan November employment estimates show Australian real unemployment of 1.199 million (9.2%) and under-employment of 1.1 million (8.4%). These figures show that the Reserve Bank of Australia should still be cutting Australian interest rates in 2017 (now at 1.50%) rather than thinking about raising them.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Cash upbeat as job figures defy gloom

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Dec-16

Australia’s official unemployment rate rose from 5.6 per cent in October 2016 to 5.7 per cent in November. It has increased by 0.7 per cent in the last 12 months, although the Budget had forecast a 1.75 per cent increase. The figures show that some 39,300 full-time jobs were created in November, but the number of full-time positions fell by more than 45,000 overall in the first 11 months of the year. The youth unemployment rate has risen from 12.5 per cent to 14.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB