ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

IMF outlook perks up for jobs, inflation

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 19-Apr-17

The International Monetary Fund has forecast global economic growth of 3.5 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018. The latest World Economic Outlook report also forecasts that Australia’s economic growth rate will rise to 3.4 per cent year-on-year by the December 2017 quarter, while the economy is forecast to grow by three per cent in 2018. Meanwhile, the IMF expects the nation’s unemployment rate to fall to 5.1 per cent in 2018. The IMF’s outlook for Australia is much more bullish than the most recent forecasts issued by the Treasury.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Business Confidence up in March; but low confidence sees Barnett Government thrown out

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 2.4% to 113.8 in March 2017. The rise in Business Confidence coincided with the All Ordinaries Index gaining 142.8pts (+2.5%) to 5,903.8. However, the continuing low Western Australian Business Confidence contributed to the election loss for former premier Colin Barnett. WA has consistently had the lowest Business Confidence of any State since the end of the mining boom in mid-2015. A record high 43.3% (up 3.4ppts) of businesses say they are "better off financially" than a year ago while just 28.6% (down 2.2ppts) say they are "worse off", a net positive gain of 5.6ppts. In addition, 50.1% (up 4.4ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 46.1% (down 0.8ppts), expect "bad times" – a net positive gain of 5.2ppts. Meanwhile, 50% (up 0.8ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years, while 41.8% (unchanged) expect bad times.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers after stumble – up 3.7pts to 114.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-17

Headline ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 3.3% to 114.8 in the week ended 9 April 2017, more than reversing the previous week’s fall. The four-week average climbed 0.4ppt to 112.9 to be in line with the long-term trend. Increases were observed across the board, with households’ views towards their current finances registering a gain of 5.2% to 107.0, the highest since February. Views about future finances improved by 1.4% to 123.9. Expectations for economic conditions for next year increased by 3.5% on a weekly basis, while expectations for economic conditions in the next five years increased by 2.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence trend decline resumes, down 2.7pts to 111.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Apr-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.4% to 111.1 in the week ended 2 April 2017, its lowest value since October 2015. The four-week average now stands at 112.5, falling below its long-term average for the first time since February 2016. The fall in confidence was broad based, with four out of the five sub-indices recording declines. Expectations for economic conditions for next year fell sharply, with the index falling by 5.4% to the lowest this year. Households’ views towards their current finances fell by 2.8%, while the future finances index was down 2.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Living standards leap as Asia trade deals deliver

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 3-Apr-17

Data from the Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade highlights the economic benefits of Australia’s free trade agreements with Japan, South Korea and China. There has been a 140 per cent increase in goods exported to these countries since 2014. Wine, sugar, grapes and beef are among the products that have enjoyed strong growth in exports under the FTAs. Trade Minister Steve Ciobo notes that exports contributed to a five per cent increase in real disposable income during the December 2016 quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Roy Morgan real unemployment down in February, now 9.4% (1.253m) down 0.6% from Feb 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Mar-17

A Roy Morgan Research survey has found that Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.4 per cent in February 2017, while the under-employment rate was 8.5 per cent. A total of 2.390 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed, which is down 90,000 (or 0.9%) from February 2016. Some 1.253 million Australians are now unemployed (down 66,000 in the last 12 months), while 1,137,000 are under-employed (down 24,000 in 12 months). Meanwhile, the total Australian workforce was 13,348,000 (up 174,000 since February 2016) and total employment was 12,095,000 (up 240,000 in a year). The official unemployment rate was 5.7 per cent in January 2017.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rebounds sharply – up 4.7% to 119.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Mar-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 4.7% to 119.1 in the week ended 26 February 2017, following a disappointing performance the previous week (down 2.3%). The increase in confidence was broadly based with all five sub-indices posting gains. Households’ views of current finances rose a sharp 9.3%, more than reversing last week’s 7.5% fall. Sentiment towards future finances also rose a solid 6.3%, bringing the index to its highest value since March 2016. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 month bounced 4.4%, while sentiment towards the longer term outlook rose a more modest 1.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence wilts – down 2.3% to 113.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3% to 113.7 in the week ended 19 February 2017. Consumer confidence fell for the third straight week, bringing the headline index to its lowest value since December. The fall was driven by a sharp decline in views toward current finances and views on economic conditions over the next five years. Households’ views of current finances fell a sharp 7.5%, bringing the index down to its lowest level since August 2014. However, sentiment towards future finances rose 0.3%. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months declined by 1.6%, and sentiment regarding economic conditions over the next five years dropped 4.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: edges down

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged down 0.9% to 116.4 in the week ending 12 February 2017. The decrease was driven primarily by declines in sentiment toward both financial and economic conditions over the next 12 months. Households’ views of their current finances improved by 1.0%, whereas sentiment towards future finances fell by 1.8%. Both indicators remain well above their long run averages. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months deteriorated by 3.8%, partially unwinding the 5.7% bounce over the previous two weeks. Sentiment regarding economic conditions over the next five years edged down 0.7% after a solid 4.7% in rise the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Over 12 million Australians have jobs for the first time – including over 8 million full-time jobs, but real unemployment now 9.7% (1.295m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-17

A Roy Morgan Research survey has found that Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.7 per cent in January 2017. Some 1.295 million Australians are now unemployed (down 51,000 in a year), while the number of people who are under-employed has fallen by 122,000 in the last 12 months to 1,107,000 (8.3 per cent of the workforce). Meanwhile, the total workforce has risen to 13,414,000 (up 316,000 since January 2016), and total employment has risen above 12 million for the first time, to 12,120,000 (up 368,000). The number of Australians who are employed full-time has also risen above 8 million for the first time, to 8,085,000 (up 221,000 since January 2016). The official unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in December 2016. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says US President Donald Trump has consistently outlined the problems with the way unemployment is measured in the US. Trump’s insistence that the BLS severely under-estimates US unemployment is one of the primary reasons he was elected President. The Australian Government faces the same problem Trump has called attention to. The changing nature of the workforce in Australia, the US, and for that matter around the world demands that Governments look seriously at amending the official measures of employment and unemployment that policymakers rely on to make decisions that impact millions of their citizens.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION