ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

No rate cut likely as surveys back inaction

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Oct-16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged on 4 October 2016. The findings of the Australian Industry Group’s latest manufacturing survey support the case for rates to be left on hold. It shows that business conditions improved in key sectors of the manufacturing industry during September. Other recent surveys has also been upbeat about business conditions.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, DUN AND BRADSTREET (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumps 4.4% (5.1pts) to 120.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Sep-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose by 4.4 per cent to 120.6 in the week ended 25 September 2016, more than offsetting the previous week’s decline. The improvement in confidence was broadly based. Consumers’ views towards their current and future finances rose by 5.4 per cent and 4.0 per cent respectively. Households’ views of the 12-month economic outlook rose by 6.0 per cent, while views of the five-year economic outlook improved by 3.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Explorers splash cash as prices improve

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 22-Sep-16

Data from accounting firm BDO shows that Australian-listed resources companies spent an average of $A418,000 on exploration in the June 2016 quarter. This is 16 per cent higher than in the March quarter, and represents the first quarterly increase in more than two years. The median exploration budget of small explorers increased from $A91,000 to $A115,000. There was also a large increase in the number of resources groups that raised at least $A10m from investors during the quarter.

CORPORATES
BDO CHARTERED ACCOUNTANTS AND ADVISERS, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENTISTS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence dips – down 2.2% to 115.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Sep-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell by 2.2 per cent to 115.5 in the week ended 18 September 2016, unwinding some of the previous week’s gain. Last week’s sell-off in financial markets – which raised fears of a sharper correction across bonds and equities – was likely the main driver of the fall in confidence. Financial market weakness looks to have trumped the news of a dip in the unemployment rate to a three-year low of 5.6 per cent. The weakness in confidence was broadly based. Consumers’ views towards their current and future finances both declined 1.8 per cent. Households’ views of the 12-month economic outlook dropped 1.1 per cent while views of the five-year economic outlook dipped 1.4 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Gary Morgan’s comment on the Roy Morgan August real unemployment estimates

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Sep-16

In August Australia’s real unemployment was 10.4 per cent (1.332 million people looking for work, 159,000 more than a year ago) and under-employment was 7.1 per cent (917,000, down 27,000 in a year) – a total of 17.5 per cent (2.249 million) Australians looking for work or looking for more work. Part-time employment spiked in June and July leading into and encompassing the Federal Election period. This phenomenon is not surprising and is consistent with part-time employment increases measured by Roy Morgan before the 2010 and 2013 Federal Elections. Now that this period is past, part-time employment has fallen back as many of these employees are no longer employed while others are now employed full-time. Today’s Roy Morgan real unemployment figures show that much more must be done by the Turnbull Government to provide employment opportunities to Australians looking for work and looking for more work. For the last 51 months (more than four years) in excess of 1 million Australians have been unemployed, stretching back to May 2012, and clearly more than 2 million Australians have been either unemployed or under-employed in every month this year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Australian real unemployment virtually unchanged at 10.4% (down 0.1%) in August and under-employment drops to 7.1% (down 1.9%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Sep-16

Australian real unemployment was virtually unchanged at 10.4 per cent (down 0.1 per cent) in August 2016, nearly double the current ABS figure for July (5.7 per cent). However, this is a substantial increase in unemployment over the past year, with 1.332 million Australians (up 159,000 since August 2015) now unemployed. The Australian workforce has increased to 12,855,000 (up 104,000 since August 2015) over the last year, although total employment actually decreased to 11,523,000 (down 55,000). Meanwhile, a total of 2.249 million Australians, or 17.5 per cent of the workforce (the lowest since October 2015), were either unemployed or under-employed in August. This is up 132,000 from August 2015 (an increase of 0.9 per cent).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rebounds to 118.1 (up 3.8pts) after strong GDP figures

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Sep-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has risen by 3.3 per cent to 118.1 in the week ending 11 September 2016. The four-week moving average ticked up to 118.2, the highest level since late 2013. The GDP report for the June quarter, which highlighted the underlying strength of the Australian economy, was likely behind part of the rise in consumers’ optimism. The bounce in confidence was largely driven by households’ views of the economic outlook. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 8.1 per cent, while consumers’ views of their current finances rose by 1.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Gary Morgan comment on this week’s strong Consumer Confidence result

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Sep-16

This week’s rise in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, up 3.8pts to 118.1, comes after a strong Australian GDP result last week which showed the Australian economy growing at an annual rate in the year to June of 3.3 per cent. This is the fastest annual GDP growth for the Australian economy for four years since 2012. Although this week’s increase in Consumer Confidence might seem to contradict the fall in the Roy Morgan Business Confidence – down 7.5pts to 108.6 in August, released yesterday, the two indicators are measured over a different time period (the month of August compared to the weekend just past) and have therefore been impacted by different socio-economic drivers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

One in five first-year uni students drops out

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Original article by Julie Hare
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Sep-16

New figures show that the proportion of Australian university students who quit their course in the first year rose to a record 21.09 per cent in 2014. However, this falls to 15.25 per cent if students who change courses are taken into account. Andrew Norton of the Grattan Institute says the rise in the first-year drop-out rate can be linked to the increase in university enrolments in recent years. The number of Australian students enrolled in university courses rose above one million in 2014.

CORPORATES
GRATTAN INSTITUTE, UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, SWINBURNE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

Taxpayer funds hold up economy, families ease back

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Sep-16

The latest national accounts data shows that the Australian economic expanded by 3.3 per cent in the year to June 2016. It is now 25 years since the last recession in Australia, and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has attributed the almost unprecedented period of economic growth to factors such as the nation’s commitment to free trade and economic reform. However, growth in household spending slowed to just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter, while growth in household incomes is also subdued. A sharp rise in government spending contributed to GDP growth in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, EAST ASIA SUMMIT