ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Dollar overvaluation won’t provoke rate cut, says NAB

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Original article by Jessica Sier, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 27-Apr-16

The Australian dollar has risen by more than 12 per cent since mid-January 2016. National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril says the currency may be approaching previous levels at which the Reserve Bank had expressed "discomfort". The central bank responded to these concerns by reducing the cash rate, but NAB does not believe that the dollar’s current level will be sufficiently high for the RBA to cut interest rates in May. The latest inflation and jobs data will also influence the RBA’s monetary policy decision.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rebounds – up 3.8pts to 115.8

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Original article by Gary Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-16

The 3.8 points increase in Consumer Confidence to 115.8 today has been driven by improving sentiment towards the Australian economy, with 31% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months and 34% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next five years. In addition, a majority of Australians (53%, up 5ppts) say now is a "good time to buy" major household items. The increase is good news for the L-NP Government, however the latest Morgan Poll released yesterday shows the L-NP 50% (down 2.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 2.5%) in mid-April and the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to its lowest point since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister – now at 99 (down 7pts). In addition, last week’s fall in the ABS unemployment rate sounds good but it is in fact misleading as the ABS consistently underestimates the real level of unemployment in the Australian economy – now at 11.0% (1,422,000) in March according to the latest Roy Morgan real unemployment estimates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Consumer Confidence down for 4th week

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Original article by Gary Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell again this week – down for the fourth week in a row to 112.0 (down 4.4pts in a month). Driving this week’s fall was a deterioration of the index comparing personal financial situations to this time last year – with just 29 per cent (down 3ppts) of Australians saying they are "better off" financially than this time last year and now 26 per cent (up 3ppts) of Australians saying they are "worse off" financially. This week’s fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence coincided with last week’s poor economic news: iron ore miner and steel manufacturer Arrium possibly closing its Whyalla steel smelters and putting up to 10,000 jobs across Australia at risk; hundreds of truck drivers threatening a truck convoy to Canberra protesting against owner-drivers being put out of business by the previous Labor Government’s legislation favouring large trucking companies; and more poor publicity on banks and the financial industry resulting in Opposition Leader Bill Shorten promising a Bank Royal Commission if elected.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. ROAD SAFETY REMUNERATION TRIBUNAL, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence on the skids – down 1.4pts to 112.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell 1.2 per cent to 112.0 in the week ended 10 April 2016, having fallen 2.6 per cent over the previous three weeks. While it is always difficult to pinpoint the driving forces behind confidence, it seems likely that the current discussions on policy reform ahead of the Federal Budget in May, as well as the recent weakness in equity markets, are affecting consumers’ confidence. Consumers’ views towards their current personal finances fell by 5.5 per cent, while consumers’ views towards the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by two per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Living standards at a five-year standstill

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 12-Apr-16

Australian households’ disposable income rose by 22 per cent during the last five years of the government of former prime minister John Howard. However, data from the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Modelling shows that household income has barely grown in the last five years, when factors such as inflation and population growth are taken into account. Meanwhile, the household savings rate has fallen from 11 per cent of income to 7.6 per cent over this period.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. CENTRE FOR SOCIAL MODELLING, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Streaming sends music sales bouncing upwards

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 11-Apr-16

Data from the Australian Recording Industry Association shows that sales of recorded music grew by five per cent in 2015, to $A334m. Sales of digital music increased by 11 per cent to $A208m, with music streaming services boasting revenue of $A71.1m. However, sales of physical music were three per cent lower at $A126m, although this followed an 18 per cent decline in 2014.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RECORDING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, APPLE INCORPORATED, SPOTIFY LIMITED, YOUTUBE INCORPORATED, CREDIT SUISSE AG, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, VEVO, FUTURE CLASSIC, ENDEMOL SHINE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Australian unemployment jumps to 11%

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-16

A Roy Morgan Research survey on Australia’s labour market has found that the real unemployment rate rose by one per cent to 11 per cent in March 2016. The number of people in the workforce totalled 12,944,000 in March 2016 (up 274,000 since March 2015, but down 230,000, month-on-month), and 11,522,000 Australians are employed (up 220,000 in the last 12 months). Meanwhile, 1,011,000 people (7.8 per cent of the workforce) are under-employed. The official unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in February 2016.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

King & Wood Mallesons tops M&A table for first quarter

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Original article by Marianna Papadakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Apr-16

King & Wood Mallesons has appeared at the top of the list of Australian law firms in terms of the value of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the first quarter of 2016, with about $US18.6 billion ($A24.5 billion) worth of deals. Other firms that handled a significant number of M&A deals included Gilbert + Tobin ($US17.3 billion), Allens ($US17.1 billion) and Herbert Smith Freehills ($US11.2 billion).

CORPORATES
KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, GILBERT AND TOBIN LAWYERS, ALLENS, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 113.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Apr-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell one per cent to 113.4 in the week ended 3 April 2016, following a fall of 1.6 per cent over the previous two weeks. After being on an upward trend for the past eight weeks, the four-week moving average is now falling. Consumers’ views around the economic outlook over the next five years fell 7.6 per cent, although consumers’ views towards their finances compared to a year ago rose 2.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Assets back above pre-GFC peak

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Apr-16

Data from the Reserve Bank shows that the total value of Australians’ household assets compared with average household disposable income has risen above the high of 8.5 times recorded prior to the global financial crisis. This ratio declined to 6.8 times during the GFC. The figures also show that average debt comprises 21.6 per cent of the value of household assets, down from 23.7 per cent at the end of 2011.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA