ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

RBA cuts, dismissing property bubble risk

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Aug-16

Financial markets believe there is a 52 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce official interest rates to 1.25 per cent by November 2016, after the cash rate was cut by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent on 2 August. The central bank has now reduced the cash rate by 3.25 per cent during the current monetary policy easing cycle, which began in late 2011. The RBA has warned that inflation is likely to remain low for some time, and noted that a housing price bubble now appears to be unlikely.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rates cut on cards as economy loses gloss

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 2-Aug-16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce official interest rates to a new low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The central bank’s monetary policy easing cycle began in November 2011, and it has since reduced the cash rate 11 times. Factors such as Australia’s low inflation rate and the uncertain outlook for the US and Chinese economies may prompt another cut. However, Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the RBA will be mindful that a rate cut could put more upward pressure on house prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC

Inflation no cause for ‘market hysteria’

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 28-Jul-16

Australia’s latest inflation data shows that consumer prices rose by just 0.4 per cent in the June 2016 quarter, while the annual inflation rate of one per cent is the lowest since 1999. The annual core inflation rate was 1.5 per cent, which is well below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Financial markets now estimate that there is a 52 per cent chance that the central bank will reduce official interest rates in August. However, former board member Warwick McKibbin has cautioned against a hasty response to the inflation data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JAPAN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence ticks up to 115.5 (up 0.6pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jul-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has risen by 0.5 per cent to 115.5 in the week ending 24 July 2016. Lower financial market volatility and buoyant equity markets are likely the main factors behind the improvement. Consumers’ views of their current finances fell two per cent, but households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Investors focus on inflation, central banks

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 25-Jul-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to gain about four points when trading resumes on 25 July 2016. The local bourse is likely to benefit from a positive lead from Wall Street, having lost ground in the previous trading session. Investors will be awaiting the upcoming release of inflation data for the June quarter, which could provide guidance on the Reserve Bank’s next move on the interest rate front. The US Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy statement will also be closely scrutinised by investors.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, BANK OF JAPAN

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edges lower to 114.9 (down 0.3pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Jul-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen for the fourth week in a row, down 0.3 per cent to 114.9 in the week ending 17 July 2016. The headline index is now 3.3 per cent lower than four weeks ago. Consumers’ views of their current finances edged 0.2 per cent higher last week, while consumers’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months rose by 3.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobless rate edges up and fewer hours worked

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 15-Jul-16

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s unemployment rate rose from 5.7 per cent to 5.8 per cent in June 2016. Some 38,400 full-time jobs were created during the month, although this was offset by the loss of part-time positions, resulting in a net gain of almost 8,000 jobs. ANZ Bank economist Felicity Emmett says the low jobs growth and low inflation will most likely prompt the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate in August.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

CFOs look on bright side

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 22 : 14-Jul-16

Some 33 per cent of CFOs at S&P/ASX 200 companies are confident about the future, according to a new Deloitte survey. This compares with just five per in the second half of 2015. The survey, which was carried out in the first half of 2016, also shows that 80 per cent of respondents think that uncertainty is a deterrent to business investment. Meanwhile, nearly 45 per cent of respondents believe that it is a good time to embrace balance sheet risk. New data from Roy Morgan Research also shows that there has been an upturn in business confidence.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL

Gary Morgan’s comment on the latest real Australian unemployment figures

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jul-16

This slow employment market was largely ignored by the major parties in the Federal Election campaign. It is why neither party secured a clear victory. The lack of coherent plans and details on how each major party would grow the Australian economy and generate jobs is the reason for the high vote for minor parties – today counted at 22.9%. Hopefully, the "shock" of a close election result – along with the record high support for minor parties – will mean both Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten start listening to the clear message the electorate is sending the major parties. Nearly a quarter of the Australian electorate feels ignored and unheard by Australia’s political leaders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Australian real unemployment 9.6% in June as new Government takes office

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jul-16

The good news for the re-elected Turnbull Government is that unemployment fell 1.1% to 9.6% in June 2016 – although this is still well above the current ABS figure for May (5.7%). However, the rising levels of employment were led by an increase in part-time employment (3,951,000, up 208,000 from June 2015) while full-time employment was down 28,000 to 7,792,000. Increasing part-time employment leads directly to increases in under-employment – now at 8.3% (up 0.9% since May 2016). In June a total of 2.326 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed. The fall in unemployment in June almost evenly matched by rising levels of under-employment was observed in last year’s June unemployment estimates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS