ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.8pts to 82.3, Inflation Expectations remain at lowest since November 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 0.8pts to 82.3 in the week to 8 September; the index has now spent a record 84 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.6), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up in Queensland. Now 23% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Now 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. Meanwhile, Inflation Expectations were stable at a 32-month low of 4.6% this week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In August Australian unemployment dropped to 9.1% due to significant increase in part-time jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

In August 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 174,000 to 1,423,000 (down 1% to 9.1% of the workforce). Part-time employment increased by 136,000 to 4,901,000 in August, although full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 9,387,000; overall employment for the month increased by 133,000 to 14,288,000. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.5 million Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 38,000 from July. In total, 2.92 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce, down 1.2%) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.1% for August is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for July, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 6.2pts to 101.3 due to increased confidence about the economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

In August 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 101.3 (up 6.2pts since July). The boost to Business Confidence came after the Stage 3 tax cuts were introduced for income taxpayers in July and the latest inflation figure dropped to 3.5%. However, Business Confidence is now 9.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 6.6pts on August 2023. Now 56.4% (up 7.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while 41.7% (down 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 46.2% (up 7.4ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 19.7% (down 0.9ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for August are based on 1,481 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Home values hit record highs, climbing in all states except Victoria

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Original article by Millie Muroi, Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the total value of homes nationwide rose to nearly $11 trillion in the June quarter; this is $226bn higher quarter-on-quarter. The average house value across the nation is now more than $970,000; house values in NSW rose by one per cent during the period, to a record high of $1.22m. However, Western Australia recorded the biggest growth in average house values, up 6.2 per cent to $816,000. In contrast, the average house value in Victoria eased 0.7 per cent to $900,000.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Public sector jobs boom a poor investment

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 10-Sep-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has contended that government spending prevented the economy from recording negative growth in the June quarter. Strong jobs growth in the public service over the last year was a key driver of government spending over the quarter. However, analysis of the latest national accounts data shows that productivity in the public service – as well as government-funded sectors such as health and education – fell to 2006 levels during the quarter. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says jobs growth in these ‘non-market sectors’ are fuelling the decline in productivity; he adds that when these sectors are excluded, productivity is quite good.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 83.1 in early September; Inflation Expectations drop to lowest weekly figure since November 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.1 in the week to 1 September; the index has now spent a record 83 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.4 points above the same week a year ago (78.7), and it is now 1.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in NSW and SA, down in Queensland and Western Australia, and virtually unchanged in Victoria. Now 23% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Now 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. Meanwhile, Inflation expectations eased 0.2ppt to 4.6% this week, its lowest reading since late 2021.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Hancock still No.1 on Top 500 list

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 3-Sep-24

Data from IBISWorld shows that Australia’s 500 largest private companies recorded combined revenue of $359.9bn in 2023-24; this is seven per cent higher than the previous financial year. Average revenue per company increased to an estimated $719.7m, compared with $672.6m previously. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has retained its title as the nation’s biggest unlisted company, with its revenue increasing by 3.9 per cent year-on-year to an estimated $14.9bn. Visy is ranked second with estimated revenue of $9.9bn.

CORPORATES
IBISWORLD PTY LTD, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, VISY INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

‘Too far’: ALP frontbencher’s warning to Reserve Bank

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Sep-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says CPI data to be released on Wednesday will underline the impact of interest rate rises on the economy. Chalmers contends that he is "not taking a shot at anyone", although some observers have suggested that he is seeking to blame the Reserve Bank for the slowdown in the economy. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the fact that there has been only a small uptick in the unemployment rate refutes Chalmers’ claim that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate increases are "smashing the economy". Meanwhile, Assistant Immigration Minister Matt Thistlethwaite says the central bank must not go "too far" in seeking to combat inflation.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.8% in late August – down from 5.1% for the month of July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of August 19-25. This figure is below the average so far in 2024 of 5.0%, and down 0.3% points from the month of July. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.2% points from a month earlier and the highest monthly figure since April (5.2%). Looking back over the first seven months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%, and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,088 Australians aged 14+ in July 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Households deplete pandemic savings

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 28-Aug-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has estimated that the nation’s households had amassed excess savings of about $300bn during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, National Australia Bank believes that this figure was about $200bn. Meanwhile, research from Yarra Capital Management suggests that households had most likely exhausted these pandemic-era savings by March 2024. Economists are now speculating as to whether consumers will opt to spend or save the additional income from the stage-three tax cuts that took effect on 1 July. Too much spending could force the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold for longer than expected.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, YARRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT