ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Stalled spend lifts surplus to $15bn

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Oct-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has attributed the federal government’s higher-than-forecast budget surplus for 2023-24 to lower spending rather than increased taxes. The final budget outcome for 2023-24 has confirmed a surplus of $15.8bn, which is $9.3bn higher than was forecast in the May budget. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor claims that Labor is using temporary windfalls to boost the budget bottom line, adding that its two successive surpluses will be followed by a series of deficits. The government achieved significant savings by deferring expenditure in a range of areas in 2023-24; meanwhile, personal income tax revenue was $3.1bn lower than expected at $331.5bn and corporate tax receipts were $1.7bn below expectations at $141.2bn.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Sydney home values heading for fall this year

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 1-Oct-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that home values in Sydney rose by just 0.5 per cent during the September quarter. This is the NSW capital’s lowest monthly increase in house prices since February 2023, and Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says prices could begin to fall in coming months. Meanwhile, house prices in Melbourne fell by 1.1 per cent in the September quarter; Perth recorded growth of 4.7 per cent, while house price growth in Brisbane slowed to 2.7 per cent. House prices rose by one per cent nationally during the period.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 84.9 to the highest since January 2023 – before the RBA meeting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 84.9 in the week to 22 September; despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has spent a record 86 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 8.5 points above the same week a year ago (76.4), and 2.8pts above the 2024 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and South Australia, unchanged in Victoria and Queensland, and down in WA. Now 23% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Don’t expect rate cut soon: Bullock

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 25-Sep-24

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has ruled out an official interest rate cut in the near-term, following the central bank’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. Bullock says the RBA remains focused on the underlying inflation rate, rather than the headline rate. Monthly data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that headline inflation was within the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent in August, compared with 3.5 per cent in July. However, Bullock has emphasised that electricity rebates from the federal and state governments contributed to this fall, and headline inflation is likely to rise above the target when the rebates expire next year. Lower petrol prices also put downward pressure on headline inflation in August.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.8% in mid-September – down from 5.0% for the month of August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of September 9-15. This figure is below the average so far this year of 5.0%, and down 0.2% points from the month of August. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for August shows the measure at 5.0% for the month – down 0.1% points from a month earlier and in line with the average so far this year of 5.0%. Looking back over the first eight months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.6% to 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,974 Australians aged 14+ in August 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 84.1 in mid-September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 84.1 in the week to 15 September; despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has spent a record 85 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.3 points above the same week a year ago (76.4), and 2.1pts above the 2024 weekly average of 82.0. Consumer Confidence is up in Victoria and Western Australia, but down slightly in NSW, Queensland and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Now 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 6.2pts to 101.3 due to increased confidence about the economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

In August 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 101.3 (up 6.2pts since July). The boost to Business Confidence came after the Stage 3 tax cuts were introduced for income taxpayers in July and the latest inflation figure dropped to 3.5%. However, Business Confidence is now 9.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 6.6pts on August 2023. Now 56.4% (up 7.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while 41.7% (down 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 46.2% (up 7.4ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 19.7% (down 0.9ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for August are based on 1,481 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.8pts to 82.3, Inflation Expectations remain at lowest since November 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 0.8pts to 82.3 in the week to 8 September; the index has now spent a record 84 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.6), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up in Queensland. Now 23% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Now 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. Meanwhile, Inflation Expectations were stable at a 32-month low of 4.6% this week.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In August Australian unemployment dropped to 9.1% due to significant increase in part-time jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

In August 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 174,000 to 1,423,000 (down 1% to 9.1% of the workforce). Part-time employment increased by 136,000 to 4,901,000 in August, although full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 9,387,000; overall employment for the month increased by 133,000 to 14,288,000. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.5 million Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 38,000 from July. In total, 2.92 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce, down 1.2%) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.1% for August is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for July, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Home values hit record highs, climbing in all states except Victoria

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Original article by Millie Muroi, Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the total value of homes nationwide rose to nearly $11 trillion in the June quarter; this is $226bn higher quarter-on-quarter. The average house value across the nation is now more than $970,000; house values in NSW rose by one per cent during the period, to a record high of $1.22m. However, Western Australia recorded the biggest growth in average house values, up 6.2 per cent to $816,000. In contrast, the average house value in Victoria eased 0.7 per cent to $900,000.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS