ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Households deplete pandemic savings

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 28-Aug-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has estimated that the nation’s households had amassed excess savings of about $300bn during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, National Australia Bank believes that this figure was about $200bn. Meanwhile, research from Yarra Capital Management suggests that households had most likely exhausted these pandemic-era savings by March 2024. Economists are now speculating as to whether consumers will opt to spend or save the additional income from the stage-three tax cuts that took effect on 1 July. Too much spending could force the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold for longer than expected.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, YARRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.8% in late August – down from 5.1% for the month of July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of August 19-25. This figure is below the average so far in 2024 of 5.0%, and down 0.3% points from the month of July. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.2% points from a month earlier and the highest monthly figure since April (5.2%). Looking back over the first seven months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%, and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,088 Australians aged 14+ in July 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation watch: mind the gap

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 28-Aug-24

Economists expect official data to be released on Wednesday will show that Australia’s headline inflation rate eased to 3.4 per cent in the year to July, compared with 3.8 per cent in June. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says the Reserve Bank’s board is likely to overlook the headline inflation figure when it meets in September, given that its preferred measure of underlying inflation is expected to be higher. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although inflation remains "sticky and stubborn", Labor has made a lot of progress in reducing it since taking office in May 2022. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor contends that Labor’s cost-of-living measures will temporarily reduce the headline inflation rate.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.6 in late August; highest six-week average since February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.6 in the week to 25 August; however, the index has now spent a record 82 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.5 points above the same week a year ago (78.1), and 0.7 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. Consumer Confidence is up in Victoria and Western Australia, but down in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.9pts to 83.0 as buying sentiment drops to lowest for a month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Aug-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.9pts to 83.0 in the week to 18 August; the index has now spent a record 81 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 7.2 points above the same week a year ago (75.8), and 2.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that the index decreased in most States, including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, although it was up slightly in Queensland. Now 23% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA sticks to its guns: no rate cut before 2025

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 21-Aug-24

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two-day board meeting in eatly August show that it considered increasing the cash rate to 4.6 per cent. The minutes have also reinforced expectations that the central bank will not reduce the cash rate in 2024, with the board concluding that restoring inflation to the mid-point of its 2-3 per cent target range would be delayed until 2027 if official interest rates were cut to 4.1 per cent in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In July Australian unemployment jumped to 10.1%; highest unemployment for a year since August 2023 as part-time jobs were lost in July following the Mid-Year sales

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

In July 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 294,000 to 1,597,000 (up 1.8% to 10.1% of the workforce). This is the highest level of unemployment since August 2023 and was caused by a significant decline in part-time jobs during July after the end of the Mid-Year sales. Part-time employment dropped by 176,000 to 4,765,000 in July – the lowest level of part-time employment since July 2023. Although full-time employment increased marginally in July (up 24,000 to 9,390,000), overall employment for the month dropped by 152,000 to 14,155,000. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 132,000 from June. In total 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 2.5%) were either unemployed or under-employed in July. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.1% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for June, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.6pts to 83.9 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.6pts to 83.9 in the week to 11 August; however, the index has now spent a record 80 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that the index increased in most States including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but it was down slightly in New South Wales. Now 24% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator since November 2022), while 47% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2023). Looking forward, 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 3.6pts to 95.1 after Stage 3 tax cuts provide boost to taxpayers

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

In July 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 95.1 (up 3.6pts since June). However, Business Confidence is now 16.1pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 7.6pts since July 2023. Now 49.3% (up 3.8ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 48.7% (down 2.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 38.8% (down 5.1ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.6% (down 4.6ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,501 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

TV ad revenue tanks but broadcast video on demand offers hope

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Original article by James Madden
The Australian – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

Data from ThinkTV shows that the combined advertising revenue of Australia’s commercial free-to-air broadcasters fell by 8.1 per cent in 2023-24, to $3.3bn. The figures cover metropolitan and regional free-to-air networks, plus their broadcast video-on-demand services; advertising-supported public broadcaster SBS is not included. The advertising revenue of metro and regional FTA networks fell by 12 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively. However, this was partially offset by a 12.7 per cent increase in BVOD ad revenue.

CORPORATES
THINK TV