ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

In July Australian unemployment jumped to 10.1%; highest unemployment for a year since August 2023 as part-time jobs were lost in July following the Mid-Year sales

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

In July 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 294,000 to 1,597,000 (up 1.8% to 10.1% of the workforce). This is the highest level of unemployment since August 2023 and was caused by a significant decline in part-time jobs during July after the end of the Mid-Year sales. Part-time employment dropped by 176,000 to 4,765,000 in July – the lowest level of part-time employment since July 2023. Although full-time employment increased marginally in July (up 24,000 to 9,390,000), overall employment for the month dropped by 152,000 to 14,155,000. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 132,000 from June. In total 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 2.5%) were either unemployed or under-employed in July. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.1% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for June, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.6pts to 83.9 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.6pts to 83.9 in the week to 11 August; however, the index has now spent a record 80 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that the index increased in most States including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but it was down slightly in New South Wales. Now 24% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator since November 2022), while 47% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2023). Looking forward, 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 3.6pts to 95.1 after Stage 3 tax cuts provide boost to taxpayers

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

In July 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 95.1 (up 3.6pts since June). However, Business Confidence is now 16.1pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 7.6pts since July 2023. Now 49.3% (up 3.8ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 48.7% (down 2.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 38.8% (down 5.1ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.6% (down 4.6ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,501 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

TV ad revenue tanks but broadcast video on demand offers hope

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Original article by James Madden
The Australian – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

Data from ThinkTV shows that the combined advertising revenue of Australia’s commercial free-to-air broadcasters fell by 8.1 per cent in 2023-24, to $3.3bn. The figures cover metropolitan and regional free-to-air networks, plus their broadcast video-on-demand services; advertising-supported public broadcaster SBS is not included. The advertising revenue of metro and regional FTA networks fell by 12 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively. However, this was partially offset by a 12.7 per cent increase in BVOD ad revenue.

CORPORATES
THINK TV

Business warning on public sector pay surge

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Original article by Greg Brown, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-Aug-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that overall wages growth was steady at 4.1 per cent in the year to June. Public sector wages increased by 3.9 per cent in the 12 months to June, compared with 3.1 per cent a year earlier; private sector wage growth was 4.1 per cent, up from 3.9 per cent in the previous 12 months. Meanwhile, public sector wages increased by 0.9 per cent in the June quarter, compared with 0.7 per cent growth for private sector wages. Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox has expressed concern that public sector wages are rising at a time when private companies are trying to moderate wages growth to reduce inflationary pressures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 81.3 before the RBA meeting in early August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Aug-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 81.3 in the week to 4 August; the index has now spent a record 79 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago (75.0), although it is 0.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.8. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows there were mixed results, with small increases in New South Wales and Victoria, virtually unchanged in South Australia and significant decreases in Queensland and Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eases 1.3pts to 83.1 in late July due to concerns about the Australian economy after biggest weekly jump in over three years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jul-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 83.1 in the week to 28 July; the index has now spent a record 78 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (78.4), and 1.3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that there were decreases in most states, including New South Wales, Queensland, and South Australia; the index was unchanged in Victoria and went against the trend with an increase in Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations up marginally in late July at 5.0% – from 4.9% for the month of June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jul-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 5.0% for the week of July 22-28. This figure is in line with the average so far this year of 5.0%, and up 0.1% points from the month of June. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for June 2024 shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – unchanged on a month earlier and the equal lowest monthly figure so far this year. Looking back over the first six months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% – 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,033 Australians aged 14+ in June 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 5.9pts to 84.4 after Stage 3 tax cuts hit the bulk of consumer’s pockets; highest consumer confidence since January 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jul-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 5.9pts to 84.4 in the week to 21 July; this is the largest weekly jump since mid-April 2021, when the index jumped 6.4pts. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 77 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 9.2 points above the same week a year ago (75.2), but it is 2.7 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.7. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that there were increases in most States led by a large rise in Queensland, and up strongly in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, although there was a dip against the trend in Western Australia. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 12% (up 4ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Construction insolvencies on track to set record yearly high

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Original article by Chris Herde
The Australian – Page: 17 : 23-Jul-24

About 400 licensed building companies were declared insolvent in each of the 2018 and 2019 calendar years. Data from Alares shows that there were a similar number of insolvencies during the first half of 2024, and the firm’s suggestions suggest that the full-year total will be around 700. Alares director Patrick Schweizer emphasises that its data excludes unlicensed building companies, which comprise the bulk of the construction sector.

CORPORATES
ALARES SYSTEMS PTY LTD