ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Almost 3000 builders collapse in a year

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-Jul-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that a total of 10,497 companies were declared insolvent in the 2023-24 financial year up to l6 June. This includes 2,832 insolvencies in the construction industry, which is 28 per cent higher than the previous financial year. The data also shows that rate of corporate collapses in the building industry is accelerating, with 120 insolvency appointments during the first two weeks of June; this compares with 314 in May and 255 in April. Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn says factors such as labour shortages, material cost inflation, inefficient regulation and "draconian" industrial relations reforms have made construction projects unsustainable.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged after the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.4 in the week to 23 June, although it has now spent a record 73 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 5.5 points above the same week a year ago (74.9), but is still 1.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that there were increases in NSW and Victoria, but modest declines in Queensland, WA and SA. Now 19% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in late June have stabilised at 4.8% – down only slightly from the month of May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of June 17-24. This figure is below the average so far this year of 5.0%, and down 0.1% points from the month of May. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2024 shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – the equal lowest monthly figure so far this year, and down 0.3% points from April 2024 (5.2%). Looking back over the last few months, since the start of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8%-5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,026 Australians aged 14+ in May 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence drops 2.3pts to 97.0 in May after under-whelming Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

In May 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 97.0 (down 2.3pts since April 2024) and still just marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 14.2pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 6.7pts since May 2023. Now 52% (down 0.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 45% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, only 38% (down 3ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early days of the pandemic in April 2020), while 42.6% (up 6.1ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,513 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers 3.3pts to 80.3 following the King’s Birthday long weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.3pts to 80.3 in the week to 16 June, although it has now spent a record 72 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 7.9 points above the same week a year ago (72.4), but it is still 1.7 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.0. Consumer Confidence has increased in most States, but the measure is virtually unchanged in Victoria. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 6ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Outlier economist predicts two rate rises this year

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 18-Jun-24

Economists at three of Australia’s four major banks are of the view that interest rates have peaked and the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin easing monetary policy in November. Other economists expect the first rate cut in 2025. However, Judo Bank’s economic adviser Warren Hogan expects the RBA to increase the cash rate in both August and November. He says the central bank’s board will be concerned about recent economic data such as higher-than-expected jobs growth in May, which suggests that inflation will remain above the target range. He adds that tax cuts and governments’ cost-of-living relief may add to inflation.

CORPORATES
JUDO BANK PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian employment increases to a new record high of over 14.3 million; driving a drop in unemployment to 8.7% in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-24

In May 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 170,000 to 1,365,000 (down 1% to 8.7% of the workforce), as overall employment increased to a new record high above 14.3 million. In addition to the decrease in unemployment, there was also a welcome decrease in under-employment, which was down 256,000 to 1,338,000. These combined decreases mean that 2.7 million Australians (17.2% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in May – the lowest level of total labour under-utilisation since April 2022 (2.63 million). Meanwhile, employment increased by 78,000 to a new record high of 14,310,000 in May. A rise in full-time employment drove the increase (up 112,000 to a new record high of 9,441,000), while part-time employment was down 34,000 to 4,869,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 3.5pts to 77.0 in the first full week of winter – lowest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.5pts to 77.0 in the week to 9 June, and it has now spent a record 71 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is still 4.3 points above the same week a year ago (72.7), but 5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.0. Consumer Confidence dropped sharply in Victoria, WA and SA, and down in NSW, but it was unchanged in Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 27% (down 4ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 36% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year, while 39% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Meanwhile, 22% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Sharp drop in profit growth amid anaemic household spending

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Jun-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that earnings outside the resource sector have risen by just 1.6 per cent over the last year. A downturn in consumer spending amid the cost-of-living crisis was the key contributor to the decline in earnings growth. However, lower coal and iron ore exports also weighed on earnings in the resources sector. KPMG’s chief economist Brendan Rynne says the figures show that the nation is "a heartbeat away from a recession". The quarterly national accounts data to be released today will provide more evidence regarding the state of the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 80.5 in early June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.5 in the week to 2 June, but it has now spent a record 70 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (75.8), but 1.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, down in Queensland and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the equal highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ