ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian employment increases to a new record high of over 14.3 million; driving a drop in unemployment to 8.7% in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-24

In May 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 170,000 to 1,365,000 (down 1% to 8.7% of the workforce), as overall employment increased to a new record high above 14.3 million. In addition to the decrease in unemployment, there was also a welcome decrease in under-employment, which was down 256,000 to 1,338,000. These combined decreases mean that 2.7 million Australians (17.2% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in May – the lowest level of total labour under-utilisation since April 2022 (2.63 million). Meanwhile, employment increased by 78,000 to a new record high of 14,310,000 in May. A rise in full-time employment drove the increase (up 112,000 to a new record high of 9,441,000), while part-time employment was down 34,000 to 4,869,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 3.5pts to 77.0 in the first full week of winter – lowest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.5pts to 77.0 in the week to 9 June, and it has now spent a record 71 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is still 4.3 points above the same week a year ago (72.7), but 5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.0. Consumer Confidence dropped sharply in Victoria, WA and SA, and down in NSW, but it was unchanged in Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 27% (down 4ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 36% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year, while 39% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Meanwhile, 22% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Sharp drop in profit growth amid anaemic household spending

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Jun-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that earnings outside the resource sector have risen by just 1.6 per cent over the last year. A downturn in consumer spending amid the cost-of-living crisis was the key contributor to the decline in earnings growth. However, lower coal and iron ore exports also weighed on earnings in the resources sector. KPMG’s chief economist Brendan Rynne says the figures show that the nation is "a heartbeat away from a recession". The quarterly national accounts data to be released today will provide more evidence regarding the state of the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 80.5 in early June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.5 in the week to 2 June, but it has now spent a record 70 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (75.8), but 1.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, down in Queensland and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the equal highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Company tax cut will shift pain to others

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 6 : 4-Jun-24

Australia’s company tax rate of 30 per cent is currently the third-highest among OECD nations, and Industry Minister Ed Husic recently suggested that it should be reduced. However, Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy contends that any tax changes should be revenue-neutral, adding that a reduction in the company tax rate would need to be offset by an increase in other taxes. Kennedy also rejected calls for income thresholds to be adjusted every year to combat ‘bracket creep’. Meanwhile, Kennedy says that national accounts data to be released on Wednesday will show that the Australian economy was
"very weak" at the start of 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased 1.8pts to 80.2 as views about the next year deteriorate

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 80.2 in the week to 26 May; it has now spent a record 69 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4 points above the same week a year ago (76.2), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA but up slightly in Victoria – reversing the trends of a week ago. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 8% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in late May have dropped to 4.9% after spiking in April as petrol prices increased

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.9% for the week of May 20-26. This represents a slight decline from the average so far this year of 5.0%, and a pullback from the month of April (5.2%). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for April 2024 shows the measure at 5.2% for the month – the highest monthly figure so far this year and up 0.3% points from March 2024 (4.9%). This is the largest monthly increase in Inflation Expectations since June 2023, when the measure increased 0.4% points to 5.6%. Looking back over the last few months, since the start of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% – 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 7,593 Australians aged 14+ in April 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

NSW top state for business failures

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 29-May-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that 8,742 businesses nationwide were declared insolvent in the first 10 months of 2023-24. This compares with just 6,200 insolvencies during the same period in the previous financial year. NSW has recorded the biggest growth in insolvencies, with 3,695 businesses collapsing in the 10 months to 30 April; there have been 2,247 insolvencies in Victoria and 1,608 in Queensland. Sectors such as construction, accommodation, retail and food services have recorded the biggest growth in insolvencies.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Approved housing for 100,000 stalls on rising costs

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 & 28 : 29-May-24

KPMG’s analysis of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that at the end of 2023, construction had yet to begin on more than 37,000 dwelling had been approved. This represents a nine per cent increase on the five-year average. These dwellings would provide housing for nearly 100,000 people, based on the nation’s average household size of 2.5 people. Townhouses and apartments comprise nearly two-thirds of dwellings that are awaiting construction. KPMG’s urban economist Terry Rawnsley says factors such as rising construction costs and labour shortages have contributed to the stalled housing commencements.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation may drop below 3pc by July

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 28-May-24

Monthly inflation data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that consumer price growth was steady at 3.5 per cent in the year to April. Commonwealth Bank economist Stephen Wu says energy subsidies in recent federal and state budgets will flow through to consumers in July and August, and they may be sufficient to reduce consumer price growth by 0.6 per cent in those months; this would restore inflation to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent on a quarterly basis well ahead of its forecast of late 2025. However, CBA senior economist Belinda Allen says this would probably not prompt the RBA to reduce the cash rate, as it is likely to focus on underlying inflationary pressures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA