ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased to its highest in over three years at 3.13 million in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Roy Morgan employment estimates for April show total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased 195,000 to 3,129,000 (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%). ‘Real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%) and under-employment increased 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%). The increase means overall labour under-utilisation is at its highest for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million). The labour force has experienced rapid change over the last year with a large increase in population (+717,000) – a rate almost three times higher than the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 287,000. This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 667,000. However, the figures show although new jobs are being created, there are not enough jobs being created to soak up the 667,000 people who joined the workforce over the last year and increasing numbers of Australians are becoming unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million. In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic. In April 1,535,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce, up 1%), an increase of 177,000 from March driven by more people looking for both full-time and part-time work. There were 669,000 (up 74,000) looking for full-time work and 866,000 (up 103,000) looking for part-time work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence improves marginally in April – up 1.3pts to 99.3 before next week’s pre-election Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

In April 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 99.3 (up 1.3pts since March 2024), marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 11.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2; however, Business Confidence is up 9.1pts since March 2023. Now 52.1% (up 8.2ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while 44% (down 10.3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – the best results for these indicators since April 2022. In contrast, a record low proportion of businesses, 29.3% (down 9.6ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years, while 60.5% (up 6.4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ over the longer-term. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,986 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.6 points to 80.5 before the Reserve Bank meets on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 80.5 in the week to 5 May. The index has now spent a record 66 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 2.8 points above the same week a year ago (77.7), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 0.8 points to 81.1 in late April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 81.1 in the week to 28 April; however, the index has now spent a record 65 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now only 1.3 points above the same week a year ago (79.8), and 1.6 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.7. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 33% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation means tax cuts could pose a risk

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 6 : 26-Apr-24

AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the higher-than-expected inflation data for the March quarter means the revised stage-three income tax cuts present a greater economic risk than when they were first announced. He contends that the tax cuts to be announced in the 14 May budget would have been less of a risk to the economy if inflation had been falling. Veteran economist Chris Richardson notes that it has been known for a long time that the tax cuts will be inflationary. Consumer prices rose by one per cent in the March quarter; this compares with economists’ expectations of 0.8 per cent growth, and the 0.6 per cent increase in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Inflation Expectations in late April are at 5.0% – up slightly from the month of March (4.9%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.0% for the week of April 15-21. This figure is in line with the average over the last 12 weeks of surveying since late January – also of 5.0% – and up slightly from the month of March. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for March 2024 showed the measure at 4.9% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on February (5.0%). The figure of 4.9% for the month of March 2024 was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After March ended, Inflation Expectations moved higher through the first few weeks of April and are now marginally higher in late April. A likely driver of the increases in Inflation Expectations during April is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol, which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,999 Australians aged 14+ in March 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Fears interest rates could be hiked in 2024

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Original article by Sarah Sharples
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

Australia’s employment and inflation outlook has prompted speculation that the Reserve Bank could increase rather than reduce the cash rate in 2024. Another official interest rate rise would put further pressure on mortgage holders. Data from Roy Morgan shows that 1.53 million mortgage holders were at risk of mortgage stress in March; CEO Michele Levine says Roy Morgan’s modelling shows that this would rise to 1.57 million mortgage holders if the central bank were to increase the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in both May and June, to 4.85 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.2 points to 80.3 – the lowest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2 points to 80.3 in the week to 21 April, and the index has now spent a record 64 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now only 2.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.0), and 2.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.8. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now just 9% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

3pc wage rises may be new norm: NAB

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-Apr-24

Annual productivity growth averaged 1.2 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but National Australia Bank believes that productivity growth is likely to average 0.5 per in coming years. The mining investment boom was a major driver of pre-pandemic productivity growth, and NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent contends that returning to this level of growth would require a substantial rise in non-mining productivity. NAB warns that lower productivity growth means that workers should expect annual pay increases of no more than three per cent in coming years.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB