ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Approved housing for 100,000 stalls on rising costs

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 & 28 : 29-May-24

KPMG’s analysis of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that at the end of 2023, construction had yet to begin on more than 37,000 dwelling had been approved. This represents a nine per cent increase on the five-year average. These dwellings would provide housing for nearly 100,000 people, based on the nation’s average household size of 2.5 people. Townhouses and apartments comprise nearly two-thirds of dwellings that are awaiting construction. KPMG’s urban economist Terry Rawnsley says factors such as rising construction costs and labour shortages have contributed to the stalled housing commencements.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation may drop below 3pc by July

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 28-May-24

Monthly inflation data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that consumer price growth was steady at 3.5 per cent in the year to April. Commonwealth Bank economist Stephen Wu says energy subsidies in recent federal and state budgets will flow through to consumers in July and August, and they may be sufficient to reduce consumer price growth by 0.6 per cent in those months; this would restore inflation to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent on a quarterly basis well ahead of its forecast of late 2025. However, CBA senior economist Belinda Allen says this would probably not prompt the RBA to reduce the cash rate, as it is likely to focus on underlying inflationary pressures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.8pts to 82.0 after small Budget Boost – good time to buy major household items increased 3% to 22%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 82.0 in the week to 19 May. However, despite the increase the index has now spent a record 68 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.3), and just 0.4 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.4. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia but down slightly in Victoria. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (unchanged) also expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Disposable income soared for richest Australians after pandemic but went backwards for the rest, report says

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Original article by Stephanie Convery
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 21-May-24

A report from the Productivity Commission has concluded that government assistance in response to COVID-19 resulted in an "unprecedented fall" in income inequality during the pandemic. The report found that household disposable income declined for 90 per cent of Australians early in the pandemic. However, the poorest households were hardest hit, with their income falling by eight per cent; in contrast, the income of the nation’s wealthiest households fell by just one per cent. The latter subsequently benefited the most from the post-pandemic rebound.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

ABS employment estimates for April followed Roy Morgan’s earlier figures showing rising unemployment

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-24

The ABS employment estimates for April released last week showed Australian unemployment rising 30,300 to 604,200 (4.1%, up 0.2%) – the highest ABS estimate for over two years since November 2021. The ABS estimate once again followed the earlier released Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ estimates which showed an increase of 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%, up 1%) – well over twice as high as the latest ABS estimate. The ABS also showed rising under-employment, increasing 20,000 to 991,000 (6.6%, up 0.1%). This followed the Roy Morgan estimates on under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%, unchanged). The combined Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ and under-employment estimates show 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged before pre-election Federal Budget set to be handed down

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.2 in the week to 12 May. The index has now spent a record 67 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.3 points above the same week a year ago (75.9), but 2.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.5. Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up slightly in New South Wales and Queensland. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 52% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased to its highest in over three years at 3.13 million in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Roy Morgan employment estimates for April show total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased 195,000 to 3,129,000 (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%). ‘Real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%) and under-employment increased 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%). The increase means overall labour under-utilisation is at its highest for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million). The labour force has experienced rapid change over the last year with a large increase in population (+717,000) – a rate almost three times higher than the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 287,000. This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 667,000. However, the figures show although new jobs are being created, there are not enough jobs being created to soak up the 667,000 people who joined the workforce over the last year and increasing numbers of Australians are becoming unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million. In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic. In April 1,535,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce, up 1%), an increase of 177,000 from March driven by more people looking for both full-time and part-time work. There were 669,000 (up 74,000) looking for full-time work and 866,000 (up 103,000) looking for part-time work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence improves marginally in April – up 1.3pts to 99.3 before next week’s pre-election Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

In April 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 99.3 (up 1.3pts since March 2024), marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 11.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2; however, Business Confidence is up 9.1pts since March 2023. Now 52.1% (up 8.2ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while 44% (down 10.3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – the best results for these indicators since April 2022. In contrast, a record low proportion of businesses, 29.3% (down 9.6ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years, while 60.5% (up 6.4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ over the longer-term. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,986 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.6 points to 80.5 before the Reserve Bank meets on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 80.5 in the week to 5 May. The index has now spent a record 66 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 2.8 points above the same week a year ago (77.7), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ