ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.2 points to 80.3 – the lowest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2 points to 80.3 in the week to 21 April, and the index has now spent a record 64 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now only 2.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.0), and 2.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.8. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now just 9% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

3pc wage rises may be new norm: NAB

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-Apr-24

Annual productivity growth averaged 1.2 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but National Australia Bank believes that productivity growth is likely to average 0.5 per in coming years. The mining investment boom was a major driver of pre-pandemic productivity growth, and NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent contends that returning to this level of growth would require a substantial rise in non-mining productivity. NAB warns that lower productivity growth means that workers should expect annual pay increases of no more than three per cent in coming years.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.6 points to 83.5 – the highest for over two months since early February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.6pts to 83.5 in the week to 14 April; however, despite the increase the index has now spent a record 63 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago (77.2), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but down in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence drops 3.5pts to 98.0 in March as the index fails to build on momentum of positive result in February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-24

In March 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 98.0 (down 3.5pts since February) as the index fell back into negative territory despite the Reserve Bank leaving interest rates unchanged. Business Confidence is now 13.2pts below the long-term average of 111.24). However, Business Confidence is up 4.4pts since March 2023. Driving the index lower in March was less confidence about the performance of the Australian economy. Now 43.9% (down 3.7ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while just 38.9% (down 4.3ppts) expect ‘good times’ over the next five years. In contrast to the economy more broadly, businesses have grown significantly more confident about their own prospects over the year ahead, with 49.6% (up 4.8ppts) expecting to be ‘better off’ this time next year; this is the highest rating for this indicator since February 2022. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for March are based on 1,605 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.9 points to 81.9 as Australians less confident about personal finances

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.9pts to 81.9 in the week to 7 April; the index has now spent a record 62 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is 2.6 points above the same week a year ago (79.3), and just 1 point below the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria, but up in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Retail insolvencies rise as cost-of-living pressures slash consumer spending

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Original article by Kate Ainsworth, Emilia Terzon
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 10-Apr-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that 502 businesses in the retail sector have gone into administration so far in 2023-24, compared with just 193 during the same period in 2021-22. Factors such as the cost-of-living crisis and high mortgage interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, with smaller retailers in particular bearing the brunt. National Retail Association CEO Rob Godwin expects more businesses in the sector to collapse in the final months of the financial year. He says the federal government’s budget in May should provide financial assistance for retailers, particularly small and medium-sized businesses.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explains the changes that are transforming the Australian labour force as part-time work surges and drives a sustained increase in under-employment

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

Although total Australian unemployment or under-employment was virtually unchanged in March, the combined figure has averaged over 3 million (19.3% of the workforce) for the last six months, up from 2.86 million (18.8%) for the previous six months. Importantly, there has been a re-alignment in the employment markets in recent months with the increase in overall labour under-utilisation driven by a sustained rise in under-employment which is directly correlated to surging part-time employment. In March, part-time employment increased by 295,000 (up 6.1% on a month ago) to a new record high of 5,164,000. In contrast, full-time employment decreased by 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000. This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year) while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created). As part-time employment increases it makes sense we see a sustained rise in under-employment – people who are working part-time but would like to work more hours or work full-time. These results indicate the underlying weakness in the economy with under-employment now over 1.5 million for six months in a row – this has never happened before, even during the recent pandemic – "another reason" why the Reserve Bank should consider reducing interest rates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

In March 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 78,000 to 1,358,000 (down 0.5% to 8.7% of the workforce) as employment reached an all-time high of over 14.2 million. However, the composition of the workforce changed – part-time employment surged 295,000 (up 6.1%) to 5,164,000 (a new record high). Unfortunately, there was a substantial decrease in full-time employment, down 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000 as the composition of the employment market changed significantly. The rise in part-time employment was correlated to the increase in under-employment, up 75,000 to 1,576,000 (10.1%, up 0.5%). In total a massive 2.93 million Australians (18.8%, unchanged) were unemployed or under-employed in March. This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year), while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.8 as Australians enjoy Easter holiday weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.8 in the week to 31 March. However, the index has now spent a record 61 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.6 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia and virtually unchanged in Western Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unit values outpace houses in half of suburbs

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 3-Apr-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that growth in apartment prices outpaced detached homes in 633 out of 1,168 suburbs across Australia in the March quarter. This includes 77 per cent of Brisbane suburbs, 54 per cent of suburbs in Sydney and 50 per cent of Melbourne suburbs. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the outperformance of apartments could be sustained in the near- to medium-term, due to factors such as housing affordability and supply constraints. Buyer’s agent Amanda Gould says high interest rates are prompting some clients to opt for an apartment rather than a detached dwelling.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD